[ad_1]
Good morning people!
After the positive data of the porcelain And given the expectation for the monetary policy news this week, the US and Brazilian stock exchanges begin trading at different times, from 10:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. and from 10:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. pm, respectively.
Investors may be put to the test again if bond interest rates test new levels of volatility, putting pressure on growing stocks and tech favorites. In this context, Copom is he Fomc they get together, both on Wednesday (17). European stock markets open higher, accompanied by US futures. Let’s see…
And this Selic, huh?
As a star on the week’s agenda, we will have a Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) on Wednesday, Selic. However, the difference lies in the scope of that change.
Most economists and financiers consider an adjustment between 25 and 50 basis points more likely (with the concentration of expectations for an increase of 50 points); in this case, the short-term basic interest would be between 2.25% and 2.50%.
But there are also those who expect a more hawkish (more conservative and in the sense of contraction of monetary policy) statement, which will pave the way for the beginning of the cycle of monetary tightening (high interest rates). In this case, the projections point to an increase of 75 basis points, to 2.75%.
As we discuss this, the situation in Brazil is not getting any easier. We are facing the worst moment of the pandemic, with quarantines across the country and more than 2,000 deaths a day. The state of Saint Paul Ahead in an emergency phase from today until the end of the month, stopping everything that is not really essential.
On the treadmill, on the weekend it was aired the possibility of leaving Pazuello from the Ministry of Health (no one knows what the result of this telenovela will be, but it was learned that Bolsonaro would already be speaking with possible substitutes). At the same time, the economic team strives not to let the economic agenda die with the triggers of the PEC Emergency.
Brazil badly needs an infusion of reforms, and abandoning fiscal proposals now would be a phenomenal shot in the foot.
Fed, Fed e Fed
Over the weekend, the US Secretary of the Treasury emphasized that current inflation is a low and manageable risk. Most prices in the United States are going up a little over 2%, which is what they have been doing since the recent past. There is little evidence of inflationary pressure throughout the economy, structurally. At least this is the evidence so far.
On the same day as the Copom, the Fed (US central bank) will also hold its monetary policy meeting, with little hope of being able to recognize the pressures in the Treasury bond market.
Some argue that the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (Fomc, the American Copom) will be one of the most critical events for the Fed in some time, with the expectation of more growth forecasts, raising those of the Fed’s core inflation. .
Yellow signal in Germany and good data from China
The German party of Angela Merkel, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) fared poorly in regional elections. Today’s voting for the new state legislatures in two states in the southwest of the country kicked off the electoral race that will culminate in the national elections on September 26.
Therefore, questions arose about the upcoming federal elections: it is not only today that Merkel has weakened, and since these elections she would no longer be the one who would lead the party. There is an opinion that the poor performance of Germany vaccination may have influenced political outcomes. Germany is seen as the guardian of Euro zone, a political weakness of yours could mean a weakness of the region.
Meanwhile, the industrial production data of the porcelain they were stronger than expected. In absolute terms, the numbers were strong, a reminder that supply is increasing to meet stronger global demand for manufactured goods, one of the main strengths of the Chinese economy.
China is an important link in long and complex supply chains. The disruption of these chains during the pandemic has led to occasional (temporary) price increases that the Fed now has to deal with. These inflation problems need to be minimized as supply chains normalize during 2021 and demand shifts to favor services.
Write it!
Brazil starts the day with IBC-Br data for January. Measured by central bank, the index serves as a proxy for GDP activity. The expectation is a growth of 0.50% compared to the 0.64% observed in December.
Waiting for Copom, the BC continues with its currency swap auctions, offering up to 10,000 contracts, to accommodate the dollar.
For the exchange rate, the weekly trade balance is also important. Overseas, the highlight is the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which will publish a report on G20 GDP, while the Eurogroup meets in Belgium. In the US, focus on industrial activity for March.
What changes in my life?
The Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome powell, made it very clear that, unlike some investors, he is not stressed by a possible rise in inflation later this year. The reasons? First, you are busier worrying about jobs. Second, inflation, according to the authority, is temporary.
The problem of unemployment is delicate worldwide; Look at Brazil, for example, with a double digit unemployment rate.
In the US, the economy continues to drop 9.5 million positions since February 2020, putting enormous pressure on the central bank to continue stimulating in the near future; There, the Fed is tasked with keeping prices stable and maximum employment. To this end, Powell adjusted his strategy, stating that the authorities would allow inflation to rise above its 2% target, if necessary.
This gives the Fed much more leeway to keep interest rates low for longer. Here in Brazil it is different: fiscal and exchange pressures force the BC to raise interest rates. We will continue to be at historically low levels, but the market may feel a rise.
Be careful!
Let’s talk about a fund of ours that entered an interesting buying period.
I mean the Tech Brazil, which is made up of Brazilian technology companies and has already delivered a formidable result of 43.34%, gross of taxes, from its beginning on 9/9/2020 to 9/9/2021.
This result was not accidental!
Do you know how many hours a day we Brazilians spend online?
The average Brazilian is more than 9 hours on the Internet every day – according to research by Hootsuite Posted by Terra Portal.
In 2019, there were approximately 136.6 million social media users in Brazil. This number is expected to grow to almost 158 million users by 2025.
In addition, companies in the sector are investing heavily to increase their structures.
As is the case of the largest software company in Brazil, Totvs, which has just acquired RD Station for R $ 1.8 billion, according to the Money Times publication on Tuesday (09).
These facts further reinforce our thesis on Brazilian technologies as a good long-term investment.
And now the ideal time has come for you to enter this fund!
At this time, the market is experiencing a sector rotation after the 10-year interest rates in the US went from 0.70% to 1.50% per annum, as of 11/03/2021. You’ve been following this on Radical Transparency recently, haven’t you?
With higher long-term interest rates, there is a negative impact on the cash flow of high-growth companies in the coming years, as are technology companies.
But even with this market movement, Tech Brazil closed the month of February in positive, delivering 4.99%, gross of taxes.
However, at the beginning of March, the fund is on the downside, showing a decrease of -11.80% during the period between 03/01/2021 and 09/03/2021.
But there were no changes in the fundamentals of the companies that were very well selected to be part of this fund.
With this market movement, you have a great opportunity to ENTER the Tech Brazil, which has delivered more than 43% since its inception.
Staying out of this move will leave money on the table, even if the same past returns are not guaranteed.
Don’t forget that the Brazilian digital market is still a blue ocean!
So you know more about him Tech BrazilJust click the button below:
[QUERO SABER MAIS SOBRE O TECH BRASIL]
A hug,
Jojo wachsmann
