Retail sales rose 0.6% in September, worse than economists expected

SAO PAULO – Brazilian retail sales grew 0.6% in September compared to August, showed on Wednesday (11) the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

The expectation, according to the Bloomberg consensus, was that retail sales would have increased by 1.4% in the monthly comparison after a previous increase of 3.4% and 8.4% in the annual comparison.

Despite being below expectations, this is the fifth consecutive increase in the indicator since May 2020. The quarterly moving average was 2.8%. In the series without seasonal adjustment, compared to September 2019, trade grew by 7.3%, the fourth consecutive positive rate. In the accumulated of the year, the retail trade registers stability (0.0%), after six months in the negative field. The accumulated in the last 12 months advanced 0.9%.

In the expanded retail trade, which includes Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and Construction material, the volume of sales grew 1.2% compared to August 2020, the fifth consecutive positive variation. The moving average rose 4.0%, reducing the pace of sales growth, compared to the moving average for the quarters ending in August (7.4%) and July (11.1%). Compared to September 2019, the expanded retail trade grew by 7.4%, its third consecutive positive rate.

In September, the volume of retail sales grew by 0.6% compared to August and has followed an upward trend since May 2020, after the moment of greatest decline due to the Covid-19 pandemic. It was the fifth consecutive increase, although to a lesser extent than the previous ones. As a result, the level of retail trade, which had already reached its record level in August, continues to grow. The recovery of some sectors that had accumulated losses in previous months, such as vehicles, motorcycles, spare parts and pieces and textiles, clothing and footwear, is striking.

In the seasonally adjusted series, September had a predominance of positive rates, reaching five of the eight surveyed activities. There were positive results in 13 of the 27 FUs, with emphasis on: Piauí (5.7%), São Paulo (2.1%) and Espírito Santo (1.8%).

In the comparison with September 2019, in the series without seasonal adjustment, retail sales increased by 7.3% in September 2020, the fourth consecutive positive rate. As a result, retail trade registered stability (0.0%) in the year, after six months in the negative field. The index accumulated in the last twelve months shows an increase in the rhythm of sales for the third consecutive month, going from 0.5% in August to 0.9% in September.

Expanded retail trade, compared to September 2019, grew 7.4% compared to an increase of 3.8% in August 2020, the third consecutive positive rate. The accumulated variation from January to September decreased 3.6% compared to the 5.0% decrease registered until August. The indicator for the last twelve months, from -1.7% until August to -1.4% until September, shows a reduction in the intensity of the loss for the third consecutive month.

In the seasonally adjusted series, from August to September 2020, there was an increase in five of the eight surveyed activities: Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (8.9%); Fuels and lubricants (3.1%); Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles (2.1%); Office, IT and communications equipment and supplies (1.1%) and Furniture and household appliances (1.0%).

On the other hand, with negative pressure, there were three sectors: Fabrics, clothing and footwear (-2.4%); Other articles of personal and domestic use (-0.6%); and Hypermarkets, food, beverages and tobacco (-0.4%).

In the expanded retail trade, from August to September, the Vehicles, motorcycles, spare parts and pieces sector grew by 5.2% while in Construction Material the increase was 2.6%, both, respectively, after advances of 8 , 3% and 3.6% registered in the previous month.