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The amount of rain may increase in the second half of October, depending on the weather. The forecast calls for heavier rains at the same time in the South, Southeast and Midwest regions. The absence of heavy rains over the ocean indicates that increased rainfall will come in the form of shocks. In other words, the scenario is better, but there is still no guarantee of high accumulations in all the producing municipalities of the South, Southeast and Midwest in the next 15 days.
Until Friday the 13th, the forecast indicated a greater probability of heavy rains in the north of São Paulo, the center-west of Minas Gerais and the southeast and east of Goiás. Subsequently, for October 24 and 28, the highest accumulated will remain concentrated in Minas Gerais, Goiás and São Paulo, but there is also a forecast of more intense rains in the interior of the south, south and east of Mato Grosso do Sul, south , central and west of Mato Grosso, south of Rondônia and south and southwest of Bahia.
Between October 29 and November 2, in addition to Minas Gerais, São Paulo and Goiás, more intense rains are forecast over northern Rio Grande do Sul and central Paraná, northeast of Mato Grosso do Sul and southern Mato Grosso. There is an improvement trend, but very gradual. Even looking ahead, both the US and Canadian numerical forecast models indicate a slow improvement in rainfall for November. The first week of next month will not be as rainy as the last week of October. Only in the second week of the month will rainfall become more intense in the Southeast and Midwest.
Despite the higher average temperature forecast for much of the country, a more pronounced drop in temperature in late October in the southern region draws attention with lows close to 5 ° C in Campanha Gaúcha, a typical pattern of La Girl. The US Department of Meteorology (Noaa) said in its monthly publication that the current La Niña phenomenon will range from moderate to eventually strong in late spring and early summer. And this, according to the climate simulations, will imply an increase in rainfall in the Northeast, North and North regions of the Southeast and Midwest regions in December.
On the other hand, the last month of 2020 will continue to be drier than normal in Mato Grosso do Sul, west and north of São Paulo, Triângulo Mineiro and in much of the South Region. Only in January do deviations closer to the average appear in the South, but they should bring a very brief relief to the producing areas of the region.
In recent days, Brazil has received scant rains that, where they fall, increase soil moisture and allow installation, but in most production areas, it hardly rained. This has paralyzed planting activities, generating replanting and hindering the development of already installed areas. A similar scenario was observed in 2007, when a La Niña phenomenon also significantly delayed the regularization of rains in Brazil.
In addition to the harvest, the corn and cotton crops may also be compromised by the possible lack of rain and / or drought in late autumn 2021. The largest negative rainfall deviations are observed between western Mato Grosso do Sul and the North Rio Grande do Sul. They are at least 150 millimeters less than normal in the last 30 days, jeopardizing the development of the first corn crop in Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná and paralyzing the soybean plant.
