Private hospitals in RJ have 90% of ICU beds occupied; association predicts collapse in less than 15 days | Rio de Janeiro

The projection made by Dr. Graccho Alvim, director of the Association of Hospitals of the State of Rio de Janeiro (Aherj), estimates that, in less than 15 days, all beds in the private network will be occupied.

The collapse of the private health system must occur, according to a calculation made by Alvim, because in the period the total number of cases of the disease will double in the state. Last Friday (8), RJ counted a total of 15,741 people infected with the new coronavirus. Statewide, there are 1,503 confirmed deaths.

The G1 showed that, on April 30, RJ’s private network had approximately 80% of its beds occupied. In less than 10 days, that number reached 90%, according to Anahp.

For Alvim, the only way to deal with the disease is to hire beds in other states.

“Considering the daily incidence rate of new cases, the contagion rate and the days needed to double the number of cases, we are assuming a collapse of the private system in a few weeks,” said Alvim.

“As in the public network, there will also be insufficient beds in private hospitals. And without alternatives for the hospitalization of these patients, it is very likely that Rio de Janeiro will need to hire beds in nearby cities and the operators of health plans will need establish a network. ” of inter-municipal and even interstate support, to decompress the shortage of beds and avoid a total collapse in the health system. ”

The survey carried out by Dr. Alvim evaluated the numbers for the first days of May and found an incidence rate of 4.06 new cases per 100,000 people every 24 hours.

The contagion rate, that is, the number of people infected by a single person with the virus, was estimated at 3.91.

Currently, the state hospital network, according to the National Registry of Health Facilities (CNES), has 8,224 adult ICU beds to treat Covid-19.

Collapse will increase death toll

The G1 He listened to professors from the Federal Fluminense University (UFF) and the Rio de Janeiro State University (UERJ), responsible for coordinating research groups on Covid-19. Everyone agrees with the forecast of collapse in the RJ health network.

“Unfortunately, this analysis coincides with ours. Public hospitals are already full, with waiting lines, and I think the private network will also be overloaded,” said Eduardo Rocha de Almeida Lima, professor and researcher at the Institute of Chemistry. from UERJ.

For Eduardo, who also studies the importance of social isolation in the prevention of deaths, the number of confirmed cases of the disease every 24 hours has not yet reached its peak.

“According to forecasts, the peak should occur at the end of May, this for the whole of Brazil. Which is very worrying, because when the hospitals are full, the fatality of the disease increases,” the professor projected.

Another Covid-19 data specialist, statistics professor Wilson Calmon, who coordinates the UFF data portal Covid-19, believes it is possible to see the number of cases of the disease double in less than 10 days.

For him, the explanation for this phenomenon is the large number of people waiting to receive the results of the Covid-19 test.

“If most cases are confirmed, we will have an explosion of that number. It is quite natural for that to happen,” Calmon said.

The numbers represent the past

The UFF professor of statistics insisted on remembering that in an epidemic we are always looking back. That is, the numbers revealed today represent ancient information.

According to Calmon, it is necessary to take into account in this account the variables, such as compliance with social isolation measures, a greater number of people evaluated and the accuracy of the notifications. If all of these points are negative, the increase in cases may be even greater.

“In epidemics, we will always be late. Every time we look at a curve we see the past of the epidemic. Today’s new cases are actually cases of people who got sick a few days ago. In every projection there are uncertainties. This is part of the statistics “reflected Wilson Calmon.

Importance of blocking

Starting next Monday (11), the city of Niterói, in the Metropolitan Region of RJ, will enter a period of strict social isolation, identified by the English term ‘lockdown’, which means total closure.

• Understand what blocking is

In such cases, people in the municipality can only go outside to receive essential services. In Niteroi, anyone caught breaking the rules will be fined R $ 180.

The RJ government has also been preparing a proposal to enact a ‘blockade’ for the state.

In the opinion of the experts, total isolation is inevitable in Rio de Janeiro to try to contain the growth in the number of cases in the coming weeks and to alleviate the health system.

“We have to strengthen the isolation measures. The authorities must discuss the best way. But regardless of the formula, we must restrict mobility, mainly because people do not respect the current measures,” explained the UFF professor.

“The total blockade will inevitably end in Rio de Janeiro. We will not be able to escape it in the coming weeks,” agreed Eduardo Lima, a professor at UERJ.

The researcher also recalled the vertical isolation strategy, when segments of society are allowed to take to the streets and confinement is restricted to some groups.

“At the critical moment in which we are, only strict social isolation will bring the result we need. A lot is said about vertical isolation. In my opinion, this does not work for a simple reason. We are seeing many doctors, nurses and professionals from health”. health, very well trained, with knowledge of hygiene and protection, contaminated by the virus. So how can we expect a young person to go out to work normally and when he gets home he will live with other people, possibly old people, without transmitting the disease? Eduardo asked.

Stricter measures, such as “blocking”, are effective in slowing the progression of the disease, but are difficult to maintain for long periods of time.

Professor Wilson Calmon is betting that a post-closure solution will be case tracking. According to him, this technique would allow identifying all the patients and those who had contact with the infected people. Therefore, there would be a small group that should isolate themselves, facilitating the application of tests and also reducing the losses of keeping the entire population in their homes.

“In this scenario, follow-up is a door for us to get out of the ‘blockade.’ At some point, people will have to go back, and that’s why the case-tracking strategy is important. It’s a tight control to know where the virus”. But this strategy requires work. We have to map the confirmed cases, get in touch with each case and establish a network of contacts with these people. After organizing this wealth of information, yes, study how to free people, find out which neighborhoods are most critical, if there is a focus of the disease. Think about public policy, “said Wilson Calmon.

More than two months after the start of the period of social isolation, many people wonder when we will return to the habits we had before the health crisis.

When asked about it, Professor Calmon replied that one of the things he hopes as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic is that everyone will evolve with the teachings of the disease.

“I think it would be very bad if we left this moment as we were before the epidemic, without taking a lesson, without evolving as a country. At the same time as there is suffering and pain, there is also a lot of learning. From an individual point of view, that every one can evolve and reflect on actions as a human being. ”

“It would be a shame if, after all that, we put hygiene concerns aside. Every year people die from hygiene problems,” Calmon said. “Rio has always suffered this. These are individual habits that we do not value, but that make people demand more than an already precarious health system.”