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SÃO PAULO – The news this Monday (22) is very busy and has a sharp decline for Ibovespa (see more here), with special attention to the shares of state-owned companies.
After the nomination of the government of General Joaquim Silva e Luna for the presidency of Petrobras, replacing Roberto Castello Branco, the perception of risk for the company’s actions, which was already high due to Jair Bolsonaro’s criticism of the fuel readjustment and the general director of the state-owned company, increased even more, with Petrobras shares plummeting more than 19%, with PETR3 shares dropping 19.48%, to R $ 21.85, in the first hour of trading , while PETR4 assets fell 18.88%, to R $ 22.20 (see the table below with the performance of PETR3 in the session). Several analysis houses have already lowered their recommendation for the company’s papers after the news since last Friday (see more by clicking here).
Investors are also keeping an eye on the shares of BB (BBAS3) and Eletrobras (ELET3; ELET6), which also tumbled in the session. BBAS3 stocks fell around 10%, while ELET3 and ELET6 fell around 4%, declining after falling to 9%.
According to Lauro Jardim, Jair Bolsonaro will do with André Brandão at BB what he did with Roberto Castello Branco at Petrobras. Bolsonaro has already made it clear to the people of the economic team that he will take advantage of this moment to appoint another president for BB, reports the columnist. The day before, Credit Suisse had already lowered the asset recommendation BBAS3 to neutral, as well as ELET6. Regarding electricity, over the weekend, President Jair Bolsonaro said that the government is considering changes to the energy tariff, which also raised fears about new measures.
Investors are also attentive to the impact of the news about the merger studies between Lojas Americanas (LAME4) and B2W (BTOW3), which are the only highs for Ibovespa in the session amid studies for the merger between the two companies.
Check out the highlights:
After the latest events that occurred since last Friday night (22), with the announcement by the government of the appointment of General Joaquim Silva e Luna as president of Petrobras, replacing Roberto Castello Branco, amid criticism from President Jair Bolsonaro on fuel readjustment, several analysis houses have already done so. reduced it to the equivalent of the sale or put the recommendation of the state stock on review.
Among them, XP Investimentos, Credit Suisse and Bradesco BBI (which drastically cut the recommendation and the target price), while Morgan Stanley suspended the recommendation.
Banco do Brasil (BBAS3)
Credit Suisse downgraded Banco do Brasil’s assessment of superior performance to neutral, citing a higher risk of political interference following the president’s action on Petrobras. And it reduced the bank’s target price from R $ 46 to R $ 38.
The Swiss bank maintains that Bolsonaro had already come into friction with BB president André Brandão after he announced restructuring measures that involved cuts in units and vacancies.
It is worth mentioning that, according to columnist Lauro Jardim, Jair Bolsonaro will do with Brandão what he did with Roberto Castello Branco. Bolsonaro has already made it clear to the people of the economic team that he will take advantage of this moment to appoint another president for BB.
According to the same bank, the behind-the-scenes news published by the newspaper O Globo according to which President Bolsonaro is willing to change the presidency of Banco do Brasil is negative and says he believes that the market will put a price on political interference.
After President Jair Bolsonaro declared that the government is considering changes to the energy tariff, Credit Suisse said the declaration should raise concerns about the sector, especially for Eletrobras. The bank updated its models to reflect this increase in perceived risk and higher costs.
Thus, the bank reduced the target price of ELET6 shares from R $ 40.2 to R $ 32 and its higher performance evaluation (expectation of appreciation above the market average) to neutral (expectation of appreciation within the average of the market)). And ELET3 participates from R $ 36.9 to R $ 28.3, with a rating from neutral to low (below average).
Lojas Americanas (LAME4) and B2W (BTOW3)
Shortly after the market closed on Friday (19), Lojas Americanas and B2W issued a joint statement informing that they will create special independent committees to evaluate a combination of their operations.
The decision comes at a time of strong progress in e-commerce due to the coronavirus pandemic.
In a statement, the companies stated that the result of the business combination will be called Universo Americanas. However, there were no details of when the move should take place.
Although the statement was released after the close, the announcement had an impact on stocks. BTOW3 papers had the highest increase of the day in the Ibovespa, advancing 6.81%, quoted at R $ 88.65. LAME4 assets rose 1.39% to R $ 24.15.
With a 62.5% stake, Lojas Americanas is now the controller of B2W, which in turn owns some of the largest e-commerce sites in the country, such as Submarino.
In the statement, justifying the intention to merge, the companies stated that the combination will create a “powerful engine of mergers and acquisitions.”
Together, the companies have a network of 1,700 physical stores in 750 cities across the country, and an online marketplace with more than 87,000 vendors. The companies also cited that the merger could create a “powerful business” for embedded advertising, bringing together vendors, vendors and other partners.
XP commented on the news that Lojas Americanas and subsidiary B2W are studying a possible merger. An independent committee with three independent members from B2W was formed to evaluate the business with Lasa and present it to the board. possible transaction with Lojas Americanas, and then present to the B2W Board for approval.
XP says it sees the potential transaction as positive, as it eventually guarantees better strategic management, agility and a “fairer share price.” The bank says it believes that the trend in the e-commerce sector is to offer a broader ecosystem, encompassing all stages of customer purchase.
The analysts reiterated their purchase recommendation for both companies, with a target price of R $ 121 for B2W, compared to the R $ 88.65 traded on Friday for BTOW3 papers; and R $ 36 per share for Lojas Americanas, compared to R $ 24.15 for LAME4 papers. The bank also reinforced Lojas Americanas as its preference for the sector.
Bradesco BBI also commented on the news about B2W and Lojas Americanas, which it described as highly anticipated by investors and positive for the roles of both companies.
The bank highlighted that Lojas Americanas owns 62.5% of B2W’s shares, said that it assessed that the structure of a possible transaction is not yet clear, but that “Universo Americanas” will be a more competitive player. But it can intensify competition in the sector.
The bank says it appreciates that the news is well received by the market, as investors have been questioning companies for years about the rationality of the existing structure. The bank says it assesses that the restructuring would increase the competitiveness of the American Universe. Bradesco highlights that the merger will generate a unified database, which will allow a faster and more assertive analysis of customer behavior, inventory unification, a broader platform for advertising services offered to sellers and suppliers, which should increase sales , a look at the company’s investments. and acquisitions.
In the short term, the bank says it expects the shares of both companies to exceed the market average. In the short term, Bradesco says it sees Lojas Americanas as the best bet to win the transaction, but maintains a neutral assessment for the company, due to concerns about increased competition. Enjoei remains your first choice (preferred choice) for the industry.
EDP Brazil (ENBR3)
Credit Suisse released its assessment of EDP Brasil’s operating results, which it considered moderate, slightly above its expectations.
The bank says that the 5.6% increase in consolidated revenues, in the annual comparison, is due to the increase in rates and higher volumes in the distribution units, in addition to the energy contracted at favorable prices and the start of operations of new transmission lines. These positives were partially offset by weaker allocation strategies and lower volumes.
Credit states that total costs and expenses increased 5.3%, a level 20.5% lower than expected, mainly due to higher energy acquisition costs, in an annual comparison. Earnings were affected by worse-than-expected financial results, but benefited from higher-than-expected interest income. The bank indicates a higher evaluation for EDP, with a target price of R $ 24.6, compared to the R $ 18.63 negotiated on Friday (19).
Cogna (COGN3) and Eleva
Bradesco BBI commented on the Valor news that Cogna and Eleva are finalizing the agreement whereby Cogna will sell the elementary schools it runs to Eleva, and Eleva will sell the elementary education systems to Cogna’s subsidiary Vasta. The agreement is expected to involve 52 schools in Cogna. The bank stressed that the deal has yet to be confirmed, and should be positive for Cogna, in an industry where acquisitions of this type are important to dilute costs and gather market information. Therefore, the inclusion of Eleva’s assets should be a strategic advantage. The bank maintains a neutral valuation for Cogna, with a target price of R $ 6 for 2021, compared to the R $ 4.18 negotiated on Friday.
Heringer Fertilizers (FHER3)
Cibra, a fertilizer company controlled by the United States’ Omimex Resources, expanded its capacity in Brazil by purchasing a Heringer Fertilizers factory for R $ 55 million, the companies said in statements released on Friday. Cibra announced the acquisition of the unit in the southeast of Minas Gerais, which has the capacity to produce 400 thousand tons per year.
The purchase will expand its production capacity in Brazil by 24%. The agreement is part of Cibra’s R $ 400 million expansion plan, which aims to reach a local capacity of 2.5 million tons by 2025. The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals.
Cibra, which has Anglo American as a minority partner, now has 11 factories in Brazil. In addition to the plant acquired in Minas Gerais, Cibra plans to build a new factory this year and also buy at least one more production unit, according to the company.
Cibra, one of the five largest fertilizer companies in Brazil, sold 1.7 million tons of products in the country last year, up 15%. The company beat its own 2020 sales growth forecast, which was 6%.
Bradesco BBI commented on the operational data published by CCR, related to the week of February 12. Toll roads recorded a 5% fall in traffic in the annual comparison, 6.8 percentage points compared to the previous week. Urban mobility passenger traffic decreased 54% in the same comparison and 8.8% compared to the immediately previous week. Airport concessions fell 54% in the annual comparison and 1.9% compared to the previous week.
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