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The true story of the coronavirus pandemic in Brazil shows that the country had its highest peak in deaths in May, registered a slight decrease in June, had a further increase in July, and then the curve began to recede until the end of October. In November, the rate of decline stopped. Worse still, now in December, preliminary data shows that another peak may come in late 2020.
These are the true data of the pandemic and refer to the actual dates of the deaths from covid-19.
What the media show daily, on televisions and in this digital newspaper Power360, is what is called the moving average of announced deaths. But the ads do not indicate exactly when each person died.
The actual dates of deaths from covid-19 are always known with some delay. But only this information tells a more complete and very different story than charts with moving averages. OR Power360 compiled these statistics and found a large difference in the moving average death curves compared to the trajectory of deaths observed at the actual dates of occurrence. Here are the 2 charts:
The trajectory according to deaths by notification date
The narrative that emerges when analyzing the daily death notifications by the Ministry of Health (1st graph) is as follows:
- 17.mar – the 1st death is announced;
- 4.jun –The 1st time that the average number of deaths in 7 days exceeds 1,000 daily records;
- July 14 to July 23– the 10 worst days of the pandemic, with an average of 1,125 deaths per day;
- July 29 – peak of 1,595 deaths in 24 hours;
- June 22nd – the average remains close to 1,000 daily records, in almost 3 months of plateau;
- 23 to 3 – decrease in the average number of deaths from covid-19. Since August 23, the 7-day moving average has not exceeded 1,000 deaths;
- 23 Aug a 11 Nov – fall of the moving average. On November 11, the moving average reached its lowest rate since April. It was 324;
- 12.nov to 3.dez – The moving average increases again, but does not exceed 600 kills.
In other words, due to this record, the pandemic began to worsen in June, with the worst period in July. The high average numbers above 1,000 daily deaths would repeat until August 22, only then to start a downward curve.
The above narrative gives an idea imprecise what happened. As will be seen below, the worst moments of the pandemic began and ended earlier.
The trajectory of deaths by actual date of occurrencea
This is what can be known about the trajectory of the disease by analyzing the data of deaths by the date they actually occurred (2nd graph).
- 12.mar – the first death;
- March to May – rapid increase in deaths;
- 13.May to 22.May – the worst 10 days of the pandemic, with average daily deaths 1,116;
- May 22 – the day when more people died from covid-19 in Brazil. Were 1,169 Deceased;
- June – slight decrease in deaths. From June 7 to July 11, the daily deaths did not exceed 1,000. The 10 days with the fewest deaths in this phase were from June 25 to July 4, when the daily average of deaths was 916. This appears as a “mini-valley” in the graph above;
- July 12 to July 21 – The curve for the number of deaths by date of occurrence increases slightly again. July 21 1,034 people died from the disease.
- August to October: there is a drop in deaths from covid-19. On no day did the death toll exceed 1,000;
- November 17 – stability. As of October 17, the numbers were around 300. In November, the average death so far has been 309. The data will still be updated and there are signs that there may be an increase.
Below is a comparison between the moving average of the two types of data. The notification of deaths and deaths by actual date:
Looking at the deaths on the date it really happened, it is observed that the peak of the pandemic so far in Brazil was in May, more than a month before of the worst data presented by the press in the moving average. The onset of the decline in mortality also occurred more than a month earlier. In the data collected so far, July 25 was the last date with more than 1,000 deaths per day by actual date of occurrence.went, while on September 30 the media reported a record 1,031 deaths.
The actual dates of deaths are published in the epidemiological bulletins of the Ministry of Health, but can be reported weeks or months after death; they depend on the operational capacity of thousands of municipal and state health departments. But these are the data that will tell the true pandemic story in the future. OR Power360 seeks to publish this information frequently so that the reader can follow the statistics.
THE CURRENT SITUATION OF THE PANDEMIC
Both statistics (by date of occurrence and date of registration) show that the number of deaths decreased from August to October. As of November 12, the 7-day moving average of death notifications increased again. In the latest epidemiological bulletin from the Ministry of Health, the data for November stopped falling. It is common in newsletters that the most recent data on deaths by actual date are lower, because these dates have not yet been identified. If this pattern continues, the trend is that there has been a new spike in deaths in Brazil since November.
althoughthe reduction since August, the daily average of death notifications in November was 441, an even higher number. It is as if 3 737-700 planes crash every day, killing all the passengers.
Europe and the United States are clearly experiencing a second wave of the virus, breaking records for cases and deaths.
The doctor and researcher Marcio Sommer Bittencourt, from the Israelite Albert Einstein Hospital, says that one of the reasons for the second waves is the seasonality of the disease. “The virus is best transmitted in winter, it survives better in this period, and people are more closed and upcoming“, He declares.
In Brazil, according to data by actual date of death, the peak of deaths occurred in the fall. At the beginning of winter, deaths began to decline, but began to increase again in July, when the season intensified.
The second wave concept is used to define the trajectory of communicable infectious diseases through the respiratory tract. Bittencourt says there is no formal definition for the term. “It is a subjective concept of evaluating the pattern of evolution of deaths or number of cases.“.
The phenomenon conveys the idea of a first wave – an increase in the number of cases and deaths – followed by the reduction or control of the number of the disease, and then the arrival of a second wave – another increase in infections and deaths.
Cunha states that “in places where the second wave has not yet occurred, it will almost certainly occurr ”. He says this phenomenon is common when physical distance relaxes. “People lose their fear, have this relaxation and end up having second waves“, He declares.
The infectologist says, in the case of Brazil, it cannot be generalized. In continental countries like Brazil it is very difficult for us to establish if the country as a whole is having a second wave, or if the first wave is over, ”he says. It says that the pandemic affects territories differently.
According to Bittencourt, what happened between May and July in Brazil “They were the first waves that arrived at different times in different regions of Brazil“. To avoid the impact of a 2nd wave in the country, he says that it is necessary to continue with the strategies to combat the virus. Among these, he cites the isolation of those infected with covid-19 and those who had contact with the patient, and the use of masks and alcohol gel.
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