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Brazil is going through the deadliest days since the beginning of the pandemic. In addition to the nation’s new record for deaths in just one day, states are witnessing an explosion of deaths in the weeks after the holidays and crowded beaches in the summer. According to a survey Twitter, at least 16 states had a jump in the moving average of deaths. The south is the region of greatest alert.
The entire region sees an acceleration in the moving average of deaths, considered the most appropriate to observe the behavior of deaths in a week. Until last Friday (26), the three states of the region registered the following averages:
- Paraná: 68 dead
- Rio Grande do Sul: 80 dead
- Santa Catarina: 50 dead
Two weeks ago:
- Paraná: 50 dead
- Rio Grande do Sul: 53 dead
- Santa Catarina: 29 dead
There are increases of 31%, 51% and 70%, respectively. The region as a whole recorded a 50% acceleration through Friday.
All three states have seen an increase in the number of deaths since November 2020, but in the week of February 14 there was a jump in the moving average of deaths. Paraná, in fact, has shown constant peaks, already registered on December 16, January 14 and January 29.
Rio Grande do Sul, on the other hand, beat its records in the average of deaths of the first wave in December, when the figures oscillated between 60 deaths, but in recent days the data had already approached 80 deaths on average. Santa Catarina also had a jump at the end of December and now in February he sees his curve go up again.
Not by chance, all three states enacted more restrictive measures to control the pandemic. The Paraná government decreed a lockdown until March 8, in addition to imposing a night curfew. Santa Catarina opted for a shorter confinement, just during the weekend. In Rio Grande do Sul, the entire state entered the black flag, the most restrictive.
In addition to the increase in the number of cases and deaths, state governments have considered increasing restrictions on the occupation of hospital beds, which are very close to collapse.
Reflection of summer and lack of stricter policies
In addition to the three southern states, another 13 see an increase in their moving average of deaths. Amazonas, Bahia, Espírito Santo, Goiás, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Pará, Paraíba, Rio de Janeiro, Rondônia, Roraima and São Paulo also had a jump.
The most dramatic case is that of Amazonas, which has already registered a moving average twice as high as the peak of the first wave. Now finally falling after a new collapse in its healthcare system, the state still has numbers above the peak of the first wave.
Minas Gerais is also beginning to indicate a sharp increase in the average number of deaths on its curve. Although it has stability, deaths have been parked at more than 100 per day.
Furthermore, as Folha pointed out, at least seven states have already passed the peak of deaths in the first wave of mid-July.
They all had a similar behavior: they had been falling since the first peak of the disease in the country, until in November an increase in the death curve began. From then on, there were small jumps near the Christmas and New Years celebrations, at the end of January and again now, exactly two weeks after the Carnival party.
To explain the beginning of the increase in deaths from November, the professor of social medicine at the FMUSP-Ribeirão Domingos Alves draws attention to the holidays that precede the rise of the curve. “Summer trips start on this October and November vacation. That contributed a lot. Then came the festivities and Carnival, ”he says.
But what contributed a lot to this increase [de casos] what we are observing now is the holidays from January to Carnival, in which several people participated extensively in parties and crowds.
Domingos Alves, Professor of Social Medicine at FMUSP-Ribeirão
According to the researcher, the mayors and governors also lacked the application of measures to stop the circulation. “In full expansion of the Manaus strain, everyone was traveling through Brazil and there was no restrictive sanitary measure on these trips.”
The carnival is responsible, but I attribute much of the responsibility to the lack of planning and the attempt to control the little more than 5,000 mayors that we have today in Brazil and the governors.
Domingos Alves, Professor of Social Medicine at FMUSP-Ribeirão
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