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Thiago Machado, 22, lost his job when the pandemic began to hit the job market in the country. Not knowing how long he would be without income, he enrolled in a financial management course at a private university in São Paulo. “It’s harder than starting college than finishing, everyone says that,” he says. “I had to lock it.”
Ana Luiza Marques Santos, 24, suspended enrollment in history faculty last year. Stopped for financial reasons. She had a plan to study again in 2020 at a private university.
He saved money and prepared. But in March, with the onset of the pandemic in Brazil, classes were suspended. Three months later, he lost his job. “I’ve always believed that graduating in history could help other people like me, but I’m not even managing to graduate.”
The scenario of uncertainties in the economy after the pandemic, with lower wages and job losses, may contribute to the drop in enrollment, dropouts, and increased dropouts in higher education in the country.
Ana Luiza Marques Santos, 24, tried to return to university in 2020. But the pandemic postponed her plans. – Photo: Personal archive
In the private network, where are they almost 80% of college students, the economic impact is felt directly in tuition fees. On the public network, the rumble has yet to be captured. But the estimate is that yes, there will be greater evasion in the pandemic period.
“We can say that 50% of the students of federal universities are people in social vulnerability. And we know that, in society as a whole, families have been greatly impacted, “says Isabel Hartmann, dean of graduation at the Federal University of São Paulo (Unifesp) and member of Andifes, the association of rectors of federal universities in the country. . .
Alesandro de Brito Filho, 23, is one of these cases. A medical student at the State University of Pernambuco (UPE), says that family income was affected by the pandemic. The costs have increased with the electricity and food bill, now that you spend all your time at home.
Before, Alesandro stayed all day at the university and ate at popular restaurants, which are now closed.
“Giving up always crosses your mind when you don’t have all the necessary materials to continue studying and at the same pace as your classmates. Now I tend to unwind, ”he says.
Alesandro Pereira de Brito Filho, 23, is a medical student at UPE – Photo: Personal Archive
Alesandro University will resume classes remotely this semester. He has no computer or tablet, since it broke in April. The smartphone is the only means of maintaining communication with the university.
With a scholarship of 400 reais that he recently obtained from the Luiza Mahin Institute (Iluma), an association that brings together black doctors, doctors and students in Brazil, Alesandro intends to buy some equipment to accompany the classes.
According to the union of private higher education entities of the State of São Paulo (Semesp), the areas that have the highest dropout rate and maintained the trend in the pandemic are:
- Social applied (administration, advertising and propaganda and accounting),
- Engineering (civil, mechanical and production)
- Computer Technician (IT)
Administration and accounting courses tend to attract people with lower incomes, the population most affected by the pandemic, explains economist Rodrigo Capelato, executive director of Semesp.
Engineering, on the other hand, attracts a large number of students because they have an attractive job market, but they are expensive courses and students have a hard time keeping up with payments.
IT (information technology) attracts professionals with intermediate certifications, and students end up dropping out of university to prioritize their work.
Between 2017 and 2018, the rate of students dropping out or dropping out of university increased by just over one percentage point: from 27.5% to 28.8%.
2019 data and 2020 have not been released yet, but it is estimated that this year it will be 35%, says Capelato. This index represents 461,000 students who may stop studying at private universities in the country due to the pandemic, he estimates.
The consequence will be a “blackout” of skilled labor in the coming years, just when the country will have to recover from the effects of the suspension of economic activities after the recession caused by the coronavirus.
– Photo: Art / G1
On the other hand, the reduction in the number of new vacancies due to the economic recession could increase the “mismatch”, an expression used to speak of the incompatibility between the candidate’s academic training and the requirement of the vacancy, says Daniel Duque, researcher at the field of Applied Economics by FGV IBRE.
“Vacancies that require complete secondary education can be filled by professionals with a higher education degree, simply because there is a supply.”
Labor market: future
Lucas Oggiam, from PageGroup, a multinational recruitment company, says that “the lack of specialized labor in the Brazilian market is already a reality.”
“The impact of the pandemic will come in 5, 10, 15 years. Brazil suffers from skilled labor for some time, but having a worsening of the skilled labor force is quite challenging,” he analyzes.
According to Oggiam, there may be a strong dispute between companies for skilled workers, which will inflate wages in areas such as technology.
“Professionals who speak a second language are still less than 5% in Brazil. If this worsens in the next few years, the ability of companies to perform well and to go global remains a challenge, ”he says.
The red light at private universities comes on when enrollment is late. At first half of 2020, the delinquency rate increased 51%, compared to the same period of the previous year. Evasion grew 14%.
The number of new students no second semester of 2020 also suffered 50% reduction according to the union of supporters of higher education. The reason? Unemployment and loss of purchasing power of students or relatives.
A survey carried out by the Brazilian Association of Higher Education Maintainers (Abmes) published in June indicates that, among the students interviewed, 42% stated that there is a risk of dropping out of the course.
The postponement of the National Baccalaureate Examination (Enem), from November to January 2021 and with the publication of the results at the end of March, should have a domino effect in the sector.
According to Abmes, the postponement could lead to at least 3.5 million private higher education students.
Crisis, discounts and subsidies
The crisis scenario has led some private universities to fill virtual classrooms or lay off teachers. Ana Luiza Marques Santos, for example, says that she tried to negotiate tuition with the university to be able to return to school, but was not attended.
Thiago Machado was lucky: he got a job two weeks ago and went back to studying at a university in São Paulo, where he already had a 70% discount on tuition.
However, he says that the evasion was so great that the university incorporated his group, financial management, with another, accounting.
For now, says Thiago, you can follow the classes. As soon as I finish this course, I hope to have a better job ”. In Brazil, a university degree in hand can guarantee a salary up to 258% higher compared to those who have not finished high school, according to the OECD.
