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The group defends the thesis in an article, based on nine scientific arguments based on criteria from the World Health Organization (WHO), studies by renowned institutions such as Imperial College, in addition to the experience of countries such as Germany and Singapore. .
The first alleged reason for maintaining restrictive measures is the fact that transmission of the virus in Brazil and Minas is not controlled. With more than 10,000 deaths from COVID-19, the country ranks sixth in the world ranking of deaths from the disease, the spread of which occurs in exponential proportions. “The problem of exponential growth that can accelerate in an unpredictable way, which requires drastic measures to avoid new cases and interrupt the transmission chain,” says the text of the article.
In the state, experts draw on the trajectory of the pandemic inside to demonstrate uncontrolled spread. Figures from the State Department of Health (SES-MG) cited by researchers show that, on April 6, 56% of confirmed deaths in Minas were from smaller cities. A month later, on May 6, the index was already 76%. The publication also warns about the capacity of hospital sewage inside. On May 4, 6 of the 14 macro regions of Minas Gerais would already have 90% of the intensive care beds occupied.
Flock
Another issue raised by committee members is that thecollective immunity“A strategy that came to be advocated in the United Kingdom by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, should not occur so soon in Brazil. Professor at the UFMG School of Medicine, Cristina Alvim, one of the authors of the document, explains that the concept refers to the resistance acquired by the population after contagion due to a disease, such as chickenpox, for example, and subsequent recovery. In theory, cured people create antibodies. When a high percentage of the “herd” It becomes immune, the virus stops circulating, and the disease can be eradicated.
In the case of the new coronavirus, academics emphasize that the human and social cost of this solution could be very high in Minas Gerais. After all, massive immunity can only be achieved when more than 70% of the population is infected. A projection made in the article shows that, applying in this context, the average COVID-19 lethality of 1%, observed in countries such as Germany, at least 145,000 miners would have to die for the project to succeed.
“The discourse on herd immunity shows a lack of knowledge about the dynamics of the disease. If we transport this calculation that we made from Minas to Brazil, in general terms, we conclude that 140 million people (70% of the Brazilians) would have to be infected for us to have this immunity. If 1% of this total dies, there would be 1.4 million bituses “, reflects Cristina.
The researcher also notes that there are no guarantees that the antibodies acquired by the Sars-CoV-2 virus, the COVID-19 virus, are a lasting guarantee against infection.
Proof
A underreporting cases and the absence of a test planning For the state, UFMG is also concerned. According to the committee, the state effectively tests 11% of suspected coronavirus cases, rendering the sample unrepresentative of the actual spread of the pandemic. Faced with this scenario, the flexibility of the isolation would occur in the dark, since, without evidence, there is no way to monitor the measurement, or even follow the evolution of the outbreak.
According to the article, Minas has carried out 478 tests per 1 million inhabitants since the beginning of the epidemic. Brazil’s rate, considered low compared to other countries, is three times higher. In Italy, where the running of the bulls begins to relax, the rate is 23,000 tests / million inhabitants.
Professor Cristina Alvim warns that the resumption of economic activities without an adequate test plan also puts the health system on the road to collapse. Mathematical studies carried out by the University indicate that eventual changes in the virus transmission rate caused by relaxation can multiply the number of COVID-19 infections by ten, without increasing the demand for beds. When authorities note the effects of this spread on ICU vacancies, there may be no more time to avoid overloading.
“The disease has a rapid transmission, but the evolution is slow. We have 14 days of incubation, two days of transmission still asymptomatic, one week of flu syndrome and, on average, up to two weeks of hospitalization. This slows down the disease. And if we do not detect transmission early, when we notice the effect of the disease on the occupation of hospital beds, there will already be a large number of infected people, “explains the doctor.
Governor Romeu Zema (Novo) recently admitted to the press that massive tests in Minas are ruled out, alleging the lack of resources to finance the method, a position reiterated by the Secretary of State for Health, Carlos Eduardo Amaral, on April 29 during a remote meeting with the deputies. in the Legislative Assembly.
“The global economic crisis is already in place, we know that. But unfortunately, it is very difficult for me to agree with this position that ‘the state is broken’, there is nothing more to do, so we will reopen . ‘, Cristina Alvim counters.
