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RIO – Data from the Ibope poll released on Friday shows that the numerical tie for second place between Mayor Marcelo Crivella (Republicans) and State Representative Martha Rocha (PDT) is justified by the candidate’s advancement among men, elderly, wealthier and more schooled. With 14% of the voting intentions each, Crivella and Martha dispute a place in a possible second round with Benedita da Silva (PT), who adds 9% in the poll and is technically tied with the opponents within the margin of error, which is three percentage points more or less. At the head, ahead of the three, is former mayor Eduardo Paes (DEM), with 32% of the respondents’ preference.
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Martha was the only candidate to emerge from the margin of error between the most recent poll and the previous one, published on October 15. Paes, Crivella and Benedita oscillated 2% higher, while the pediatrician rose 6%.
Segmented data from Ibope shows that the PDT candidate’s uptrend occurred across the board among respondents of both genders and all age groups, as well as cuts by color and race, religion, income and education.
Among the elderly, for example, Martha had her most significant increase in relation to the previous survey: she increased by nine percentage points in the preference of respondents over 55 and opened an advantage of up to six percentage points over Crivella – she was already one above . The candidate has 18% of the voting intentions with the elderly, while the mayor has 12% and Benedita 6%. Paes leads the segment, with 36%.
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A similar scenario occurred among the richest, with an income of more than five minimum wages: Martha grew from 9% to 18%, surpassed Crivella (9%) and separated from Benedita (8%). Paes remains the leader with 32%, having fluctuated three points down in the margin of error.
Among the most educated, with higher education, Martha also surpassed Crivella: with five percentage points more than in the previous survey, she added 14% of the intentions. The mayor has 9%, tied numerically with Benedita. Paes leads the segment, with 31%, having fluctuated three points downwards.
Among the less educated, who attended elementary school, Crivella started at the front at the beginning of the campaign and then lost to Paes, but is still ahead of Martha. The mayor rose seven points, his most expressive growth among the Ibope cuts, and has 20%. Paes has 37% (34%), while Martha and Benedita have 12% each. They had 6% and 9%, respectively.
Paes remains at the forefront in all segments, except among evangelicals. Most of them remain with Crivella, an authorized bishop of the Universal Church. The preference for Paes, however, was the one that grew the most among the candidates of this religious section since October 15. The DEM candidate rose six points, adding up to 22% of the intentions; while Crivella grew four points, totaling 28%. Martha and Benedita oscillated within the margin of error: the first one gained three points, adding 14%; and the second lost one point, reaching 8%.
