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In the face of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic, public health authorities have conducted tests to detect COVID-19 only in the most serious cases and deaths from respiratory infection, due to the limited number of tests. Although it is the way to treat the disease, this practice generates a large amount of underreporting, which is already estimated at more than a million patients.
According to a survey conducted by the Covid-19 Brazil portal, which brings together scientists and students from various Brazilian universities, the total number of COVID-19 cases in the country would already be 1,201,686, an estimate that can fluctuate between 957,085 and 1,494,692. – Up to april 28th.
This number would be 16 times greater than that officially published on the date, which would be 73,553 patients. This is because the Ministry of Health mainly counts the seriously ill and the dead. In comparative terms, the estimated number exceeds official cases in the United States, the country most affected by the pandemic so far and considered the epicenter of the disease.
“We talk about going to China dead, but in total we are close to the US. [que, aliás, também precisam de mais testes], despite the fact that it had approximately two thirds of the American population and began to suffer the epidemic a month later. In fact, if we consider the unreported death cases, we also passed through China about two weeks ago, “defends Domingos Alves, a specialist in computer modeling and a researcher at the Health Intelligence Laboratory (LIS) of the Ribeirão Preto School of Medicine. , from the University of São Paulo (USP).
Number impacts
Even if the total estimates of the number of people infected are high, the national image could be very different if isolation measures had not been taken. After all, the Brazilian social distance, which is around 50%, even insufficient, has already reduced the rate of advancement of the coronavirus.
“We are not even close to a peak in cases of disease and death. We are at the beginning of a free, light and loose upward curve for the coronavirus in Brazil,” defends researcher Alves in an interview with O Globo. So, as he points out, this is not the time to weaken distance measures, which would accelerate the pace of the epidemic.
On April 11, the model published by the Covid-19 Brazil portal already estimated 313,288 infected, which represented a number 15 times greater than the official one at the time (20,727 cases). This means that the insulation must be reinforced. Also according to Alves, the cities of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Fortaleza, Manaus, Macapá and Recife should enter confinement, that is, in total closure.
How does it work?
To estimate the number of people infected with coronavirus in the country, the scientists from the Covid-19 Brazil portal carry out an inverse modeling, thus overcoming the problem of the lack of data, since there is no massive evidence from the population. To do this, they use the number of reported deaths as the basis for calculation.
Although deaths are also underreported, they are the most established indicator for the team to work on their estimates. In addition, scientists apply the same mortality rate as South Korea and adjust it to the Brazilian age pyramid. The Asian country is taken as a base, because it has consolidated data on massive tests since the first cases of COVID-19 in the country.
Source: O Globo
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