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The Ibope investigation /Status highlights a phenomenon that we have noticed here at BRP since the beginning of the campaign in São Paulo: the congestion of left-wing candidates. In the final leg of the first round, these candidates are experiencing a phenomenon of “cannibalization”, with applicants running in the same band trying to grow larger to take the place of Celso Russomanno in the second round. But will there be time and votes for that?
Together, the so-called left field candidates have 31% on Ibope, compared to 20% on Russomanno. At the start of the race, Russomanno had 25%, and the four names on the left scored, added together, 17%. The Republican candidate’s shortness of breath did not translate into a direct transfer to one of these names. Their votes were more likely to be dispersed by various candidates.
The growth of the so-called progressive camp is due more to the fact that historically there is an electorate prone to vote for it in São Paulo. This audience has been primarily PT in recent decades. It is not homogeneous: it exists on the outskirts of the city, where Jilmar Tatto is betting that he will get his passport in the second round, and also in the so-called expanded center, in a more educated and higher-income constituency, in which Guilherme Boulos achieves a great adherence.
Since there is no place for two of these names in the final phase of the election, they are more likely to initiate a useful voting movement in the electorate of others. This is the speech that both of them already make. Aiming at Ibope with more robust voting intentions than in other institutes, Márcio França opted for a somewhat higher tone, showing the wear of the PT and the inexperience of Boulos and antagonizing with more forcefulness with Bruno Covas to be more competitive than the rivals in the same field.
This cannibalization of votes from the same field may mean that there is little time to consolidate a clear opponent to Russomanno and Covas who channel the bets of the city’s “red” electorate. If this is coupled with a slower dehydration of Russomanno than the thaw it has faced in past campaigns, we can reach a scenario in which, in the final stretch, it will be impossible to bet on who will go to the second round.
Tatto and Boulos will bet on the useful preaching of the vote to go to the second round. Photos: Disclosure
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