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Tomas Adamski / Archive
Alert Meteorological published yesterday by MetSul Meteorologia warns of the high risk of severe weather in Rio Grande do Sul now this weekend, especially during Sunday. MetSul meteorologists emphasize that when traveling on Sunday, a cold front across Rio Grande do Sul will bring rainfall in all regions, without large volumes in most places, but with locally heavy to intense rainfall occurrences due to storms. Some of these storms can be severe to severe with potential for hail and wind at risk of damage.
“If in the last episodes of severe weather in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, MetSul pointed out hail as the greatest risk, this time the greatest concern is with the wind. There is a high risk of gales in the displacement of this system and, in isolation, they can be very strong and with potential for damage ”, highlighted the alert.
Conditions conducive to a favorable scenario for localized strong to high wind events with potential for damage include a very strong low-level jet stream, very low atmospheric pressure, and very high temperature in the front of the frontal system. These and other factors do not allow us to rule out the possibility of isolated severe wind episodes such as downward gusts (atmospheric micro-explosions) and even tornadoes.
Low-level jet streams, a kind of wind corridor at about 1,500 meters above sea level that originates in Bolivia and reaches southern Brazil, carrying dry and hot air, are present in the overwhelming majority of episodes of tornadoes in the south. from Brazil. They contribute to generating a divergent wind pattern of wind in the atmosphere (shear) that is at the origin of tornadoes.
It is always important to emphasize that conditions favorable to the risk of strong storms and tornadoes can be predicted days in advance, so much so that the North American Meteorology has a product of severe weather trends for up to nine days that include discussions and anticipated tornado risk forecasts. which is conducted by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center.
What is not possible with greater advance is to predict where exactly a tornado can form, especially due to the phenomenon of the microscale and that in some cases is a few meters in diameter, therefore extremely isolated. Only in the very short term is it possible to identify what point or another can be reached. What the data allows with greater anticipation is to identify which regions are more prone to these severe wind episodes and, in the case of this weekend, the risk is wide in Rio Grande do Sul, in the West of Santa Catarina and in the West of Paraná, but particularly high in the West, Center and North of Rio Grande do Sul, as well as the West of Santa Catarina and Paraná.
Another risk associated with the wind this weekend, and this is not due to a storm, is the occurrence of strong gusts of wind from the hot and dry North quadrant due to the jet stream acting at low levels. There is the possibility of north wind with strong gusts and occasionally even intense during the weekend, especially in the Santa María region, in the valleys and in the northern half of Rio Grande do Sul. And still in the states of Santa Catarina and Paraná, especially in the West, as well as in Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranám, on Sunday. Even in the state of São Paulo, the north wind can blow with strong gusts.
The moderate to strong north wind with gusts associated with the very high temperature that is expected, close to or above 40ºC in some points, will bring extreme fire risk to areas of Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo on Sunday and will will allow fires to escape. control and achieve a larger dimension in the face of very favorable conditions for the spread of fire.
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