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SÃO PAULO – Brazilian industrial production increased by 8% in July compared to June, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) showed on Thursday (3), above what economists expected. Based on the annual comparison, the decrease was 3%.
The median expectation of economists compiled in the Bloomberg consensus rose 5.9% in the indicator in the monthly comparison, after registering an increase of 8.9% in the previous measurement. In the annual comparison, the projection was of a decrease of 6%, after falling 9% in the previous month.
With the maximum in July, there were three consecutive months of maximum, eliminating part of the loss of 27% accumulated in March and April, a moment of worsening of the effects of social isolation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which affected the production process in several production units in the country. Growth, however, has not yet been sufficient to eliminate the accumulated fall in March and April, which brought the level of production to its lowest point in the series, highlights the IBGE.
In relation to July 2019 (series without seasonal adjustment), the 3% decrease marked the ninth negative result followed in this comparison. As a result, the sector accumulates a loss of 9.6% in the year. In twelve months, the reduction was 5.7%, marking the steepest drop since December 2016 (-6.4%) and accelerating the loss compared to previous months.
Monthly variations
Among the activities, the most relevant positive influence in relation to the previous month was marked by that of motor vehicles, trailers and bodies, which increased by 43.9% in July 2020, driven, in large part, by the continued return to production after the interruption due to the pandemic. The sector accumulated an expansion of 761.3% in three consecutive months of production growth, but it is still 32.9% below the level of last February.
Other relevant positive contributions to the total industry came from Metallurgy (18.7%), Extractive Industries (6.7%), Machinery and equipment (14.2%), Coke, petroleum derivatives and biofuels (3.8 %), Other chemical products (6.7%), Food products (2.2%), Metallic products (12.4%), Non-metallic mineral products (10.4%), Manufacture of clothing and accessories ( 29.7%), Rubber and plastic products (9.8%), Textile products (26.2%), Computer equipment, electronic and optical products (13.8%), machinery, electrical appliances and materials (12, 0%), miscellaneous products (27.9%) and beverages (4.6%).
On the other hand, the Printing and reproduction of recordings business, with a fall of 40.6%, marked the only negative result in that month.
The activity had registered an expansion of 77.1% in June, when it interrupted two consecutive months of reduction in production, a period in which it accumulated a loss of 27.7%.
Among the main economic categories, in relation to June 2020, durable consumer goods, by growing 42.0%, showed the most marked positive rate in July 2020.
It was the third consecutive month of production expansion, accumulating an increase of 443.8% in the period. Even so, the segment is still 15.2% below its February level.
The sectors that produce capital goods (15.0%) and intermediate goods (8.4%) increased above the industry average (8.0%). Semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (4.7%) also posted a positive rate, but pointed to less intense growth among economic categories.
All these segments showed expansion for the third consecutive month and accumulated gains of 70.5%, 21.1% and 24.0%, respectively, in the period, but they still remain below the level of last February.
Even in the seasonally adjusted series, the quarterly moving average of the total industry increased 8.8% in the quarter ended in July 2020 compared to the level of the previous month, interrupting the downward trend that began in November 2019. The expansion observed in this period The month was the most accentuated since the beginning of the historical series.
Among the main economic categories, durable consumer goods (64.0%) marked the most intense advance in July 2020 and interrupted the negative behavior present since December 2019, accumulating a decrease of 64.8% in the period.
The sectors of capital goods (18.6%), semi and non-durable consumer goods (7.3%) and intermediate goods (6.7%) also showed positive rates in July 2020 and the most significant advances high series historical. The first interrupted the trajectory of falls that began in June 2019; the second intensified the increase of 1.3% in the previous month; and the third eliminated part of the accumulated loss of 12.8% from March to June 2020.
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