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Asia bought 47.2% of Brazilian exports in the first four months of 2020. Last year, it bought 39.4%; on average in the last five years, 36%. China maintained Brazilian sales at the beginning of the year affected by the pandemic. But the rest of the continent, without taking into account the Middle East, surpassed the United States and almost tied with the European Union in the purchase of Brazilian products.
Only China bought 32.2% of Brazilian exports. The rest of Asia (minus the Middle East), 15%. It is a larger share of foreign sales than that of the United States, which bought 10.3%. Almost linked to purchases from the European Union, which represented 15.9% of the total.
The good number of companies contrasts with the number of attacks by the Brazilian government against the Chinese and Chinese governments. China buys more from Brazil than the European Union, United States, and Argentina combined.
At least in the first third of the year, the drop in Brazilian exports was small (-3.7%), considering the collapse of the world economy. The quantity exported increased (the loss came from prices). The World Trade Organization predicts a drop of around 22% in the volume of world trade in 2020.
The resistance of Brazilian exports is due to exports of agro-industrial products. In April, there were record sales for the soy, cotton, beef and pork complex.
The rest of the year is a mystery. People in the government believe that food exports tend to suffer less than industrial products. Furthermore, for now it appears that there is a possibility of earlier and faster resumption of economic activity in Asia than in the United States and Europe.
One question is whether the Euro-American collapse will not have a rebound effect on the recovery in East and Southeast Asia or if there may be a second wave of epidemic in that region. Another: can the collapse of the rich economies of the West be large enough to quell the resistance of Asian purchases?
For now, in the first third of the year, the result of foreign trade was surprisingly good. In the case of food exporters, the increase in income will continue to increase due to the devaluation of the real. In addition, government experts say, freight prices have fallen sharply, increasing the profitability of exports.
MORE EXTERNAL TRANSACTIONS
Brazilian spending on foreign travel in April was the lowest in about 15 years. Whether in business, tourism, health or education, expenses were $ 612 million in March, the most recent figure, 32% less than in the same month last year.
The travel account deficit has decreased (this is the difference in the spending of Brazilians abroad and visitors here). It went from approximately $ 2.5 billion in the first quarter of 2019 to approximately $ 1.5 billion earlier this year, 40% less.
There will be no tourism abroad in the short term, not only because traveling has become very expensive given the currency devaluation and loss of income. Getting on a plane is a health risk, restrictions on entertainment are still very important, governments will require quarantines, isolation for several days, two weeks. Which tourist will be able to pay that expense, especially for such a reduced performance?
Even the shot or a shot-and-drop remedy, far away, will be a place that doesn’t exist, paraphrasing that old pop book.
In fact, the “big trip” will be keeping the job, the store, the business, the invoice. For many millions, just eat.
