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(Pincio / Getty Images)
SAO PAULO – The Ibovespa rose on Tuesday (6) after the President of the United States, Donald Trump, was discharged from the hospital. The most positive political news in Brazil also encourages investors.
Trump was hospitalized for three days to fight a coronavirus infection. With the recovery, the scenario for the November presidential elections is less uncertain.
Additionally, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) improved its economic prospects for Brazil in 2020, but warned that risks remain “exceptionally high and multifaceted” and that public debt is on track to end the year at around 100%. Gross domestic product (GDP).
In politics, after leading frictions in recent weeks, the mayor, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ), and the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, decided to make peace. Yesterday, they had dinner together and apologized. The two defended pacification and the continuity of the reform agenda, according to Estadão.
At 10:08 am (Brasilia time), the Ibovespa was up 1.05% to 97,098 points.
Meanwhile, the commercial dollar fell 0.7% to R $ 5,526 in the purchase and R $ 5,527 in the sale. The US dollar maturing in November registered losses of 59%, at R $ 5,546.
In the future interest market, the ID of January 2022 falls nine basis points to 3.15%, the ID of January 2023 falls 11 basis points to 4.60%, the ID of January 2025 has a drop of 13 base points at 6.44% and the ID of January 2027 registered a negative variation of 14 base points at 7.33%.
Returning to the American news, Trump’s doctors said yesterday that the president’s health continued to improve over the past 24 hours, although doctor Sean Conley has warned that he may not be completely out of the woods yet. At the same time, the market follows the negotiations of the United States government on a new economic stimulus package.
The Speaker of the House of Representatives of the United States, Nancy Pelosi, and the Secretary of the Treasury, Steven Mnuchin, spoke yesterday for almost an hour, but they have not yet reached an agreement. They should have a new conversation today on the subject.
Public debt
The issue of fiscal adjustment was already a great concern in the market, but it gained strength with the government’s plans to finance the Citizen Income program with precautions, plans that are being adjusted.
Yesterday, Senator Márcio Bittar (MDB-AC), rapporteur for the 2021 Budget and the Federal Pact proposal, said that any solution to create the Citizen Income will respect the spending ceiling and will have the seal of the head of the economic team. According to Folha de S.Paulo, the dialogue is “on track” and a new proposal is due tomorrow (7).
The deterioration in investor confidence is manifested by the increase in public spending on public debt.
According to sheet, the average term of Brazilian government bonds issued since January 2020 has been cut in half, from 4.7 years to 2.4 years. As a result, in just one year, twelve-month maturities practically doubled, from R $ 553 billion to R $ 1.02 billion, reaching almost 25% of total debt.
The interest demanded by the market to refinance the government has also accelerated, especially in recent weeks and days, even for the shorter maturity papers. Even with the Selic rate at 2% per annum, the National Treasury has been forced to pay more than double to sell bonds on the market maturing in two years.
Guedes and Maia
In a meeting last Monday night, Maia said that there will be a union to advance the economic agenda in Congress, while Guedes once again defended the approval of a basic income program for 2021 and a measure to reduce the payroll to be generated ” massive jobs ”. She also reiterated the commitments to send another stage of tax reform.
Yesterday, the government leader in Congress, Eduardo Gomes (MDB-TO) said that the veto on the payroll tax exemption for 2021 will be revoked by the parliamentarians.
With that, the benefit would be guaranteed for 17 sectors of the economy for another year. However, the president of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (DEM-AP), adopted a maneuver to postpone the vote and cancel the session of the National Congress. According to Estadão, Alcolumbre will meet today with party leaders to set the date for the Congress session.
Furthermore, President Jair Bolsonaro reaffirmed that he will nominate a “terribly evangelical” name for his second nomination to the Federal Supreme Court (STF) in July. He suggested that he might even bring a pastor to court.
Another highlight is the news that the appeal trial of the Attorney General’s Office (AGU) was scheduled for next Thursday (8) on the written testimony of President Jair Bolsonaro in the investigation that investigates alleged political interference in the Police Federal.
Corporate radar
Notable in the corporate news, Marfrig bought Campo del Tesoro, in Argentina, for US $ 4.6 million, while BR Malls and Multiplan invested R $ 9 million and R $ 18.6 million, respectively, in the Delivery Center.
Also noteworthy are the data released last night by the Central Bank on the first day of the PIX. Until 6:30 pm, 3.5 million keys were registered in the Brazilian instant payment system. The news that the Ministry of Agriculture confirmed the occurrence of an outbreak of classical swine fever (CSF) in Piauí, in a subsistence pig farm, may influence meat producing companies.
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