Ibovespa rises 2.6% and reaches its highest level since August with euphoria for the vaccine and after Biden’s victory; the dollar is stable

SÃO PAULO – Ibovespa closed sharply higher on Monday (9) after the election of Democrat Joe Biden as the new president of the United States and the news that the vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNtech is 90% effective against the coronavirus.

The companies said they will submit the results of the three testing phases, which began on July 27, for review by the scientific community. On the international stock exchanges, the prices of stocks and raw materials soared, which were affected by the restrictions taken to face the pandemic.

Boeing shares rose 13.7% and oil rose 7.02% to $ 42.22 a barrel of Brent, used as a benchmark by Petrobras (PETR3; PETR4), and 7.84% to 40.05 Dollars. the WTI cannon. For the highlights of Brazilian stocks, click here.

In American politics, victories in the states of Nevada and Pennsylvania secured the number of delegates needed for Biden’s election, setting aside much of the uncertainty related to the election despite the promise of judicialization of the results by of current President Donald Trump.

The news about the presidential race and the vaccine comes at a time of alarming data on the coronavirus. On the 4th, the United States was the first country to exceed the mark of 100,000 new cases of coronavirus infection registered in a single day (with 107,000). On the 6th, there were 132 thousand cases. On the 8th, another 101 thousand cases were registered, the highest number registered in the country on a Sunday to date.

On the political radar, Jair Bolsonaro has yet to comment on the US elections after Biden’s victory, while news in the newspapers points to political articulations aimed at 2022.

The president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, said that the Brazilian economic recovery is robust, but believes that the recovery of the labor market will take longer thanks to the structural changes caused by technology during the pandemic.

Today, the Ibovespa rose 2.57%, to 103,515 points with a financial volume of R $ 49,113 billion. With today’s high, the index returned to its highest closing level since August 6, when it closed the session trading at 104.125 points.

Meanwhile, the trade dollar was practically stable after falling 3%. The exchange rate had a slight negative variation of 0.04% to R $ 5.39 in the purchase and R $ 5,391 in the sale. The US dollar maturing in December registered a slight increase of 0.33%, to R $ 5,387 in the Secondary market.

In the future interest market, the ID of January 2022 fell four basis points to 3.27%, the ID of January 2023 fell five basis points to 4.81%, the ID of January 2025 fell seven basis points in 6.44% and the ID of January 2027 registered a negative variation of nine basis points at 7.16%.

Upon returning to the United States, analysts believe there is little chance that Trump will be able to change the outcome of the election. The market is keeping an eye on the results of the Senate vote in Georgia. So far, Democrats and Republicans are tied for senator counts, each with 48 confirmed.

Georgia’s outcome should be decisive as to whether Republicans will maintain dominance over the Senate or whether Democrats will take the lead.

The likely compromise between a Democratic presidency and a Republican-led Senate appears to be well received by the market. This arrangement will drastically limit Biden’s ability to carry out deeper economic reforms while maintaining the status quo. In Europe, the indices also rose on Monday.

Biden said today that he was informed of the progress of the Pfizer vaccine, but noted that even if the announcement brings “hope,” it will be months before there is a general vaccination of the population in the United States.

Among the national indicators, financial market economists revised their projections for the contraction of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2020, the Central Bank’s Focus Report showed. From a 4.81% drop, a 4.80% drop is now expected. For 2021, the median of the estimates fell from a growth of 3.34% to an expansion of 3.31%.

In relation to the Comprehensive National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), the median expectation of economists rose from 3.02% to 3.20% in 2020. By 2021 it also increased, from 3.11% to 2, 17%.

On the other hand, the projections for the dollar at the end of 2020 (R $ 5.45) and for 2021 (R $ 5.20) remained stable.

Estimates for the Selic base interest rate remained at 2.00% per year for 2020 and 2.75% per year for 2021.

Politic notices

Live over the weekend, President Jair Bolsonaro (non-party) made no mention of Biden’s victory and says he doesn’t know if he will attempt re-election. According to newspaper information Or BalloonBolsonaro’s allies defend the administration with a less radical speech after Trump’s defeat.

Still on the political radar, according to Folha de S. Paulo, Sergio Moro and Luciano Huck negotiate an electoral alliance to contest the Presidency in 2022. The former Minister of Justice and Public Security of Moro and the television presenter met in Curitiba to discuss a third way.

Who would top the list was not debated, a discussion that should take place throughout 2021; the articulation of the center also includes João Doria, governor of São Paulo.

Also in the spotlight, the Bolsonaro government is looking for ways to establish control over NGOs (Non-Governmental Organizations) in the Amazon, the newspaper reports. The State of S. Paulo. The move comes at a time when Democrat Joe Biden’s victory as US president raises expectations of increased pressure on escalating deforestation rates in the Amazon.

Biden is historically linked to the environmental cause. In a debate against Trump in late September, he said that, if elected, “he would immediately begin organizing the hemisphere and the world to provide $ 20 billion for the Amazon, so that Brazil no longer burns the Amazon.” He said that the international community would offer the 20 billion dollars for Brazil to stop destroying the forest.

“And if it doesn’t stop, it will face significant economic consequences,” he said.

OR Status It says that it obtained access to documents prepared by the National Council for the Legal Amazon, a collegiate created in 1985, during the military dictatorship, which expired in 1995, recreated by the Bolsonaro government and currently chaired by the vice president, General Hamilton Mourão.

According to the São Paulo newspaper, the document was sent by Mourão to the ministers and aims to “guarantee the prevalence of national interests over individuals and politicians.”

The objective would be “to obtain 100% control of the NGOs that work in the Amazon Region, by 2022, to authorize only those that serve national interests.” The document foresees “the creation of a regulatory framework for the performance of NGOs.”

The state of Amapá has been operating without electricity in most municipalities since last Tuesday (3), after a transformer was destroyed by a fire. On Saturday (7), the device was replaced.

On Sunday (8), the state released the electricity supply rotation schedule in 13 municipalities affected by the blackout. The full supply should only be established next weekend, says the Ministry of Mines and Energy, not to mention an exact day.

Brazil should fall in the ranking of largest economies

With the reduction of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) as a result of the crisis driven by the pandemic, added to the strong devaluation of the real against the dollar, the Brazilian economy should suffer a sharp decline in 2020.

By the end of the year, Brazil should cease to be among the ten largest economies in the world, according to data from the IMF (International Monetary Fund) compiled by FGV (Fundação Getulio Vargas) and broadcast by Valor newspaper.

According to IMF projections, Brazilian GDP is expected to shrink by 5.8% in 2020. When values ​​are converted to dollars, which explains the decline in the value of the real, the fall will be 28.3% in 2020 compared. with 2019.

Thus, the country should drop three positions in the ranking of the world’s largest economies, from ninth to 12, being surpassed by Canada, South Korea and Russia. Brazil has already ranked as the seventh largest economy, when the real was valued.

The Brazilian economy is also suffering from the rebound in the IGP-M inflation index, which has raised the cost of public debt. Between January and September 2020, the expense in collections in the portion of the gross debt linked to the IGP-M doubled compared to the same period of 2019, to R $ 20 billion. The fiscal crisis and low interest rates have made it difficult for the country to attract investment.

Corporate radar

Latam, the largest airline in Latin America, reported on Friday (6) a net loss of US $ 573.1 million in the third quarter, affected by the coronavirus pandemic.

The net profit of the food company M. Dias Branco was R $ 265 million in the third quarter, the company reported. It was a jump of 97.3% in the annual comparison.

Higher highs

Higher number of casualties

SLC Agrícola reported a net loss of R $ 35.7 million in the third quarter, a decrease of 63.2% compared to the same period last year.

US renewable energy group Rio Energy is in talks to sell its wind generation assets in Brazil. Petrobras completed the sale of the Baúna field to Karoon, for US $ 150 million.

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