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SÃO PAULO – Ibovespa operates between profit and loss this Wednesday (7), taking off from the US stock markets. The uncertainty about respecting the spending ceiling continues to limit any more optimistic trend here, at the same time that the fall in oil in the international market hurts Petrobras’ performance (PETR3; PETR4).
Economic radar news from see He pointed out that the government is considering extending Emergency Aid until March 2021 and that the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, is no longer so emphatic in defending the reforms. The analysis would be that what matters now is to maintain the income of the population through social programs.
According to the magazine, if Brazil does not grow again in the first quarter of next year, the Bolsonaro administration can extend Emergency Aid until June. If the term is thus extended, the government would total R $ 100.5 billion in expenses with the program.
However, shortly after the news, Guedes denied the information and said that the aid ends in December. The XP policy analysis team points out that there are practical limits to paying the benefit with extraordinary credit.
At 12:01 pm (Brasilia time), the Ibovespa fell slightly by 0.11%, to 95,507 points.
Meanwhile, the commercial dollar rose 0.52% to R $ 5,623 in the purchase and R $ 5,624 in the sale. The dollar maturing in November registered gains of 0.12%, at R $ 5,603.
Outside, the relief continues after US President Donald Trump’s announcement of measures to bail out airlines and support the economy totaling $ 25 billion.
The day before, Trump’s decision to halt negotiations between Democrats and Republicans for a trillion dollar stimulus package against the economic impacts of the coronavirus ended up causing stock markets around the world, including Brazil’s, to crash.
The US president said the stimulus will only be approved if he is reelected in November. Later, however, Trump asked Congress to extend some measures to support the activity.
The one who has not yet recovered from the strike in the talks for the trillion dollar package was oil. Investors bought futures contracts for the commodity counting on the increase in demand caused by the fiscal expansion of the US government, so today is being a day of adjustment in the fuel market.
A barrel of Brent – used as a benchmark by Petrobras – fell 2.32% to US $ 41.66, while a barrel of WTI fell 2.78% to US $ 39.54.
In the future interest market, the DI of January 2022 rises 11 basis points to 3.47%, the DI of January 2023 advances 12 basis points to 4.91%, the DI of January 2025 has an increase of eight basis points at 6.76% and the ID of January 2027 registered a positive variation of nine basis points at 7.65%.
The impact on DI is a consequence of the statements of the president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto. He once again defended the spending ceiling amid uncertainty about how the Ingreso Ciudadano program will be financed.
“The ceiling was the anchor that allowed Brazil to spend more during the pandemic, because later the agents understood what expenses were going to return to the ceiling,” evaluated Campos Neto. For the president of the monetary authority, when doubts begin to arise about the return to the spending limit, there is a risk of putting a price on the path of the public debt.
The market is also following the news today that the government wants to incorporate measures of the so-called “war budget” in the text of the Proposal for Constitutional Reform (PEC) of the Federative Pact. The objective, according to Status, it is about regulating fiscal rules in case of calamity, which would increase the spending space in 2021, in the case of a new wave of Covid-19, for example.
Attention is drawn to the information that President Jair Bolsonaro intends to define the unpopular measures to finance Citizen Income after the municipal elections.
At the same time, Senator Marcio Bittar (MDB-AC) pointed out that the Renta Ciudadana proposal should be ready next week. Faced with this scenario, political leaders ask the government to define a minimum agenda of proposals for the economy to vote before the end of the year.
Public accounts
Today, the market follows the news that the government wants to incorporate measures of the so-called “war budget” in the text of the Proposal for Constitutional Reform (PEC) of the Federative Pact. The objective, according to StatusIt is about regulating fiscal rules in the event of calamity, which would increase the spending space in 2021, in the case of a new wave of covid-19, for example.
According to the newspaper, the text should define the scenarios in which the government could increase spending. The government’s fear is that fiscal rules will hamper action to tackle the disease next year.
In addition, attention is drawn to the information that President Jair Bolsonaro intends to define the unpopular measures to finance Citizen Income after the municipal elections.
According to Status, the strategy was designed to prevent harsh measures from disrupting the campaign of political allies. However, government allies believe that it will not be possible to wait that long to point the way to the market, as the worsening fiscal risks have generated great nervousness.
This year, the flight of foreign investors from Brazil from risky investments in 2020 should more than double in relation to that registered in 2019, according to Folha de S.Paulo. The balance between applications and withdrawals from non-residents will be negative by US $ 24 billion between January and December. In 2019, outflows totaled $ 11.1 billion.
At the same time, Senator Marcio Bittar (MDB-AC) said yesterday that the Renta Ciudadana proposal should be ready next week. He is the rapporteur for the Emergency PEC, which must include Citizen Income. “Next week, God willing, it’s ready,” he said.
Faced with this scenario, political leaders ask the government to define a minimum agenda of proposals for the economy to vote before the end of the year. “The looming crisis seems to be tough. The legislative process is slow. You have to see what’s on the agenda, ”Senator Renan Calheiros (MDB-AL) told Estadão / Broadcast.
BNDES
The BNDES allowed large companies to access the emergency credit line guaranteed by the Treasury, which until yesterday was only allowed to companies with annual income of up to R $ 300 million, according to Folha de S.Paulo. The goal is to release up to R $ 20 billion in collateral, which would allow the granting of up to R $ 100 billion in loans.
Large companies will have the right to access 10% of the resources contributed by Tesouro in the program, or R $ 2 billion. The bank expects to be able to grant up to R $ 10 billion in financing, since each R $ 1 issued by the government can leverage another R $ 5.
Another highlight is the information that the Federal Regional Court of the 1st Region ordered the closure of the investigations against the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, carried out by the Operation Greenfield working group of the MPF (Federal Public Ministry) in Brasilia.
According to sheet, two investigations were opened against Guedes for suspicion of participation in fraud in the contributions of pension funds linked to state companies in two investment funds created by BR Educacional Gestora de Ativos, a company linked to the minister.
In addition, the market follows the revelation that the academic curriculum presented by Judge Kassio Nunes Marques, appointed by President Jair Bolsonaro to the Federal Supreme Court (STF), brings a postgraduate degree that is not confirmed by the University of La Coruña. in Spain.
Corporate radar
On the corporate front, the market today follows the debut of Sequoia Logística’s shares on the stock market. Additionally, the sale of Laureate’s Brazilian assets remains on investors’ radar. Hope Education, a Hong Kong group that acquired the Laureate unit in Malaysia about 10 days ago, also intended to bid for the Brazilian operation. However, it gave up this week, according to Valor Econômico.
Azul reported that its liquidity position was R $ 2.3 billion at the end of September. In addition, the original forecast was a cash consumption of approximately R $ 3 million per day for the second half of the year, but it showed a cash increase of approximately R $ 700 thousand per day during the third quarter.
In addition, MRV announced that it will distribute dividends, while Sanepar managed to reduce 60% of an environmental fine. Braskem said the usage rate of its units in the United States returned to normal, while resin sales reached a record in Brazil.
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