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SÃO PAULO – Ibovespa Futuro opens higher this Friday (4) with investors waiting for the US Employment Report. Attention is also being paid to stimulus talks in the US and news about coronavirus vaccines.
Following news that Pfizer will have to cut its supply of vaccines shipped this year in half, Moderna said it expects to provide 125 million doses of its own prophylaxis in the first quarter of 2021 globally.
In Brazil, on a day with a weak agenda, investors monitor the Federal Supreme Court (STF) vote for Congress, which began this morning with two votes from Gilmar Mendes and Dias Toffoli in favor of the reelection of Rodrigo Maia (DEM- RJ) and Davi. Alcolumbre (DEM-AP) to the presidencies of the Chamber and Senate, respectively, but there are doubts about whether the result will come out on this date.
At 09:10 AM (Brasilia time), the future index for December had an increase of 0.5%, at 112,980 points.
The future dollar maturing in January 2021 registered a decrease of 0.17%, to R $ 5,145.
In the future interest market, the ID of January 2022 operates stable at 3.05%, the ID of January 2023 has fallen from a base point of 4.51%, the ID of January 2025 falls by a base point to 6.18% and the ID of January 2027 registered a negative variation of three basis points at 6.98%.
The Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine was approved on an emergency basis in the UK on Wednesday and is due to start shipping to the country next week. It is expected to be used to immunize a third of the British population.
Pharmaceutical companies intended to distribute 100 million doses starting in 2020, but shipments of materials used to produce the vaccines have not reached the desired standard. The total doses scheduled for 2020 have been cut in half.
Investors are also following the news about the approval of a new stimulus package for the US economy. On Thursday night, the media reported that conservative US congressmen have shown their support for the bipartisan $ 908 billion stimulus bill presented on Tuesday (1).
Republicans seem to be sensitizing themselves to the fact that the number of new daily cases, hospitalizations and deaths has broken records in the country.
The value of the package is well below the $ 2.2 trillion that Democratic leaders advocate. His big opponent, however, remains the Republican Majority Leader in Congress, Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnel, who is advocating a $ 500 billion bill.
Without the approval of a new package, more than 13 million Americans are expected to lose benefits for the unemployed on December 26.
Lawmakers are working on a December 11 deadline to approve the package. On this date, funding for non-extraordinary federal operating programs expires. Congress is working on a $ 1.4 trillion tax package.
If not approved, there may be a “shutdown” in US federal agencies, and services that are deemed nonessential may shut down. Congressional leaders hope to vote on the extraordinary stimulus package due to the pandemic along with this fiscal package that expires on December 11.
Still on the radar, the day before, representatives of the European Union and the United Kingdom held talks about the approval of a new trade agreement to replace the current one, which expires on December 31. The British newspaper Financial Times reported, however, that the UK accuses France of making last-minute demands, which could make it difficult to get a package approved before the weekend.
In Asia, markets closed in different directions after the Pentagon added more Chinese companies to a list of companies controlled by the country’s military. The companies include chipmaker Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp and oil company CNOOC.
With respect to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Allies (OPEC +), OPEC and its allies agreed to increase their production by just 500,000 barrels / day in the month beginning in January 2021. The small increase equates to around 0 5% of the pre-pandemic world demand of 100 million barrels per day (mbpd), which means a modest increase in world supply.
Tax reform and vaccination
At an event promoted by the CBIC (Brazilian Chamber of the Construction Industry) on Thursday night, Economy Minister Paulo Guedes said that a political disagreement prevents the tax reform from passing through Congress.
“We collaborate with the second phase, Vanessa (Canado, special advisor to the Ministry of Economy), who works with us, was in direct connection with the rapporteur Aguinaldo (Ribeiro, PP-PB), providing our ‘insights’ on the second phase, which were indirect taxes, IPI (Tax on Industrialized Products), selective taxes, etc. ”Said Guedes.
“And suddenly, with this political impasse, this political disagreement involving the dispute for the presidency of the House, the conversation is more or less interrupted.”
The Federal Supreme Court (STF) has begun to judge whether to allow the current mayors, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ), and the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (DEM-AP), to run for re-election to remain in office until February of 2023.
The mandates of both have been marked by clashes with the government of Jair Bolsonaro. According to the newspaper Folha de S. PauloThe political articulations behind the scenes, the recent constitutional changes and the sympathy of the STF ministers with the position of the two leaders towards the government have fueled the hope that both can remain in their positions.
Gilmar Mendes and Dias Toffoli voted early Friday to allow Maia and Alcolumbre to be re-elected. The action trial is expected to last one week, but may be interrupted at any time if a member of the Court is seen or highlighted; 8 ministers still have to vote. Appointed by Bolsonaro and third minister to vote in the middle of the night, Kassio Nunes Marques voted against Maia’s eventual run for re-election.
Despite speaking of a “political impasse,” Guedes said he believed the tax reform could come out quickly. “I think we are going to make a quick deal, this can be resumed, or now or later, but the truth is that we are going to make this reform,” he said.
In addition, the Senate approved this Thursday the bill that determines that the vaccine against covid-19 is everyone’s right and free, with priority for key groups. The project also says that the SUS (Unified Health System) will have priority in purchasing vaccines until immunization goals are met. The proposal goes to the Chamber of Deputies.
On Wednesday, the Ministry of Health announced that it expects vaccination in the country to begin between March and June 2021.
On Thursday, however, São Paulo Governor João Doria criticized the forecast, saying he believed the state should start applying CoronaVac starting in January, developed by the Chinese laboratory Sinovac. It must be produced in Brazil by the Butantan Institute, from imported inputs from China.
Bolsonaro talks about economic and energy growth
Without making a direct reference to the data on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) published the previous morning, President Jair Bolsonaro (without a party) affirmed, in his live weekly on Thursday night, that the country’s economy resumed its growth. in V. “Economically we are growing in V, as Paulo Guedes used to say, right? Really, the data is fantastic, “said Bolsonaro.
The Economy Minister himself admitted earlier, however, that the third quarter result was below expectations, although it shows a resumption in V.
Brazil’s GDP grew 7.7% in the July-September period compared to the previous three months, according to data released Thursday morning by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). It is the largest expansion recorded in the third quarter by the institute since it began calculating quarterly GDP in 1996. But it is still insufficient to recover the losses of the country’s pandemic, 1.5% of GDP in the first quarter and 9, 6% of GDP in the second quarter.
Thus, compared to the same period in 2019, there was a fall in GDP of 3.9%. The level is also 7.3% below the high recorded in early 2014. The results are also below market expectations. Analysts consulted by the international agency Bloomberg projected a growth of 8.7% in the third quarter compared to the immediately previous quarter, and a decrease of 3.6% compared to the same period of 2019. The Ministry of Economy projected expansion of 8, 3% in the comparison between the second and third trimesters. See the analysis by clicking here.
In his weekly live, Bolsonaro also urged consumers to avoid wasting energy. Hydroelectric reserves are under pressure in the country due to the lack of rains and the resumption of demand.
I turn off all the lights in Alvorada, we are campaigning to save energy, ”he said together with the Minister of Mines and Energy, Admiral Bento Albuquerque. “You can do this at home, avoid waste,” said the president.
Bolsonaro said that the adoption of the red tariff flag, which raises the cost of the electricity bill, is not “bad for the people” with the aim of raising more, but to pay for a more expensive source of energy, which is the thermoelectric.
He stressed that as soon as the level of the hydroelectric reservoirs returns to normal, that flag will end.
Bento and Bolsonaro defended the adoption of a greater use of nuclear energy in the country to compensate for energy generation at times like the present.
Corporate radar
Minister Bento Albuquerque (Mines and Energy) said this Thursday night, during Bolsonaro’s broadcast on social networks, that he believes in the capitalization of Eletrobras in 2021. We believe it will be [aprovado o Projeto de Lei], we have already spoken with deputies and senators and it has everything to be approved in 2021 and we do, I would not say privatization, but sale of Eletrobras “, said the minister, adding:” it will be capitalized, it will become a large energy company ” .
The beer maker Ambev intends to invest R $ 255 million in the Itapissuma unit, in Pernambuco. The objective is to expand its production capacity for single malt beer and create a new bottling line focused on the North and Northeast regions. According to the newspaper Valor, the official announcement will be made by the company this Friday, during the visit of the state governor, Paulo Câmara (PSB), to the factory.
Still on the radar, after 311 accessions, Copel has a new layoff incentive program. According to the newspaper O Globo, Petrobras will make a new offer for Polo Urucu.
Itaú issues R $ 2.1 billion in Level 2 Subordinate Financial Invoices, EZTEC launches a project in the city of São Paulo with a General Sales Value (PSV) of R $ 135.1 million.
Rede Energia called a new meeting to evaluate the fair value of Energisa’s share purchase offer (OPA): the meeting will be held on December 18 of this year.
Gol released the operational advances for the month of November. The airline posted a 43.8% drop in passenger demand compared to the same month last year, while supply fell 46.3% on the same basis of comparison. Thus, the occupancy rate increased 3.7 percentage points in the period, to 84.5%.
Carrefour Brasil paid an additional R $ 247.4 million to Makro for stores and service stations. Dasa, in turn, announced the purchase of Biodínamo for R $ 1.77 billion.
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