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SAO PAULO – Ibovespa Futuro opens higher on Tuesday (3) after the evolution of ADRs (in practice, Brazilian stocks listed in the USA) on the feast of the Day of the Dead and the continuation of the boom of the main stock exchanges worlds in this session. It is worth noting that due to the end of daylight saving time in the United States on November 1, the trading hours of the Brazilian B3 markets will change, with trading until 6pm.
All the attention today is on the elections in the United States. Seen as more moderate than Republican Donald Trump, even in the dispute with China, Joe Biden leads the polls, but uncertainties about key states and the risk that the result will be challenged remain.
At 09:11 AM (Brasilia time), the December futures index rose 1.54% to 95,955 points.
The US dollar maturing in November registered a decrease of 0.45%, to R $ 5,724.
In the future interest market, the ID of January 2022 falls by a basis point of 3.43%, the ID of January 2023 operates stable at 5.01%, the ID of January 2025 falls two basis points to 6.72% and the DI for January 2027 registered a negative variation of three basis points to 7.50%.
During the campaign, President Trump has repeatedly expressed concern about the authenticity of votes sent by mail. On Sunday, he said the results should be released on Tuesday, “and not weeks later!”
American results are generally counted until the morning of the next day. That is why there is a fear that the president is preparing to question them in the event of defeat.
Financial market economists maintained the projection of a fall in the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2020 at 4.81%, the Central Bank’s Focus Report showed. For 2021, the median expectations point to a GDP growth of 3.34% compared to 3.42% estimated last week.
In relation to the National Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), economists project an increase of 3.02% in 2020 compared to 2.99% expected last week. For 2021, the expectation went from 3.10% to 3.11%.
The forecast in dollars at the end of 2020 went from R $ 5.40 to R $ 5.45. For 2021, the estimate remained at R $ 5.20.
Finally, the projection for the basic interest rate, Selic, remained at 2.00% per year for 2020 and 2.75% per year for 2021.
Politic notices
Without consensus, this Tuesday the bill that gives autonomy to the Central Bank can be voted on. The president of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (DEM-AP), called a remote deliberative session at 4 in the afternoon to debate three projects, among them the establishment of a formal autonomy for the directors of BC, a topic that has been debated for three decades, without major advances.
The leaders also meet this Tuesday in search of an agreement to vote the veto to exempt the payroll.
Investors also echo the speeches of the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ), who said that he does not see a clear government plan for the economic and fiscal crisis, and does not see prospects for approval of cuts expenses or tax reform. this year during the life of the newspaper Value on Monday (2). Economy Minister Paulo Guedes would be the sole defender of the government’s spending ceiling, he said.
Maia said that unemployment and inflation are growing, with no signs of falling in the short term, and that there is no clarity on what the government intends for the 2021 Budget.
“For now, none of us are sure what the government is going to do. We are seeing, each week, a line of action. In a moment you see a test balloon [termo para quando governantes mencionam a possibilidade de tomar uma medida como forma de avaliar sua repercussão e viabilidade] to extend emergency aid. In the other, a test balloon to spread the calamity. [que permite temporariamente que o governo gaste acima do teto]”, said.
In his assessment, Paulo Guedes’ minister “is almost alone within the government defending the spending ceiling.”
The mayor said that this year there is no time to approve the 2021 Budget, but the Budget Guidelines Law could be voted on. With the suspension of the parliamentary recess, it would be possible to advance the budget in January, voting on other measures.
Maia affirmed that it is necessary to cut expenses in the Executive with the vote of the PEC (constitutional reform proposal) Emergencia, which provides for the reduction of mandatory expenses, with the aim of not violating fiscal rules. Maia made the vote on the tax reform conditional on the PEC Emergency vote, but said he assessed that this should not happen soon. “Some are optimistic and think that we can vote for the Emergency PEC in December, my accounts do not allow it,” he said.
Fiocruz foresees the Oxford vaccine in March in Brazil
The president of Fiocruz (Oswaldo Cruz Foundation), Nísia Trindade de Lima, said this Monday (2) that she anticipates that the production of the vaccine developed in partnership between the University of Oxford and the pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca will begin between January and February 2021.
According to Lima, the first doses of the vaccine must be applied in Brazil until March 2021.
In September, Fiocruz signed a contract with AstraZeneca to produce 100 million doses of the Oxford-developed vaccine. The pharmaceutical company has the rights to produce, distribute and market the vaccine.
According to the newspaper Folha de S. PauloIn December, 15 million doses of the active pharmaceutical ingredient in Oxford vaccine, which is manufactured in China, will be shipped to Brazil. Thus, the country will be able to start production on national soil.
Another important immunizer on Brazil’s production routes is Coronavac, which is being developed by China’s Sinovac. In the country, the vaccine must be produced by the Butantan Institute. The institution is located in São Paulo, a state governed by João Doria (PSDB), a potential candidate against Bolsonaro in the upcoming elections.
On the 21st, Bolsonaro dismissed a term of intention to purchase 46 million doses of Coronavac, announced the day before by the Minister of Health, General Eduardo Pazuello, after the signing of a protocol of intentions with the governors of 24 Brazilian states.
The recall drew criticism from health secretaries in other states, who want the vaccine to be included in the national vaccination schedule.
On the 30th, the vice president, General Hamilton Mourão, declared in an interview published by Veja magazine that the Executive would contribute to the purchase of Coronavac, and that he would have sent resources from Butantan to produce the immunizer.
“This vaccine issue is a political fight with Doria. The government will buy the vaccine, of course it will. We have already invested resources in Butantan to produce this vaccine. The government is not going to escape from that, ”he said. In response, Bolsonaro told the R7 portal: “The Bic pen is mine.”
By note, the Butantan Institute stated that “it has not received any formal communication from the Ministry of Health about the protocol of intentions signed during a meeting with governors of 24 Brazilian states, held on October 20,” and that it is still waiting. the government to buy doses of Coronavac.
Corporate radar
Ânima Educação informs that it has signed a contract with the Laureate Group, which will result in the acquisition of the group’s Brazilian assets. In summary, the contract provides for a closing price of R $ 4.4 billion, of which R $ 3,777 billion will be paid to Laureate in cash and R $ 623 million in asset debts to be assumed by Ânima Educação.
Notably, Eletronorte approves the issuance of R $ 750 million in debentures. BR Distribuidora received R $ 34.6 million in debt from Eletrobras. Bradesco reported that it completed the purchase of BAC Florida.
Copasa obtained a net profit of R $ 240.5 million in the third quarter of 2020, 24% more than in the same period last year, when it obtained R $ 131.4 million. Irani Papel e Packaging obtained a net profit of R $ 25.55 million in the third quarter of 2020.
On Friday, CCR announced that, for the first time during the pandemic, weekly road traffic grew compared to 2019.
Still in the results season, Porto Seguro and Duratex publish figures before the market opens; Itaú, TIM, Minerva, Petro Rio, IRB Brasil, Marcopolo after the market close.
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