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SÃO PAULO – The Ibovespa Futuro opens higher this Wednesday (9) following the outside after the S&P 500 index reached a record high of 3,702 points the day before. Investors’ attention today will be focused on the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) after the auction and the definition of the Proposal for an Emergency Constitutional Amendment (PEC), which has caused a lot of volatility in the Stock Market.
According to Bloomberg, the PEC rapporteur, Senator Márcio Bittar (MDB-AC), sent a draft of the bill to the leaders of Congress, but admitted that the text is not what he would like.
In addition, the world is watching with interest those first days of vaccination against the coronavirus in the United Kingdom and the negotiations of the island state’s trade agreement with the European Union. Still on the radar, the session is bullish for major US futures indices, with the expectation of further fiscal stimulus in the US that will boost demand for economically sensitive stocks like banks and industries.
In Brazil, in a meeting with governors held on Tuesday, Health Minister General Eduardo Pazuello said that the government intends to buy vaccines approved by the National Health Surveillance Agency (Anvisa) for use in an emergency regime. . He said that the expectation is to begin vaccination in Brazil in February.
Yesterday, the government announced the purchase of 70 million doses of the product developed by Pfizer and BioNTech after the São Paulo government announced in January the start of vaccination in the state with coronavac, produced by China’s Sinovac. This vaccine is not mentioned in the plans of the federal government, which must announce this Wednesday the project to distribute the vaccine Pfizer and BioNTech.
At 09:10 AM (Brasilia time), the December futures index had an increase of 0.16%, to 113,935 points.
The future dollar maturing in January 2021 registered a fall of 0.33%, to R $ 5,099.
In the future interest market, the ID of January 2022 falls two basis points to 3.01%, the ID of January 2023 falls two basis points to 4.38%, the ID of January 2025 decreases one. base point at 6.02% and the ID of January 2027 registered a negative variation of one base point at 6.87%.
Economy Minister Paulo Guedes said the government will announce before the end of the year a reduction in subsidies “in a generalized way.” According to him, it will be a “strong signal” for foreign investors that Brazil is committed to fiscal adjustment and the balance of public accounts.
Stimuli in the US
Investors are unsuccessfully pursuing negotiations on the US economic stimulus package, which has been in the works for months. Without it, 12 million Americans are likely to be without unemployment benefits shortly after Christmas.
Congressmen intend to vote on the package until Friday (11), along with the new budget, without which the government enters “closure” and services considered non-urgent stop working. It is also negotiating to vote this week the extension of the current budget until the sixth day of the following week, the 18th, which would give a boost to address both issues.
On Tuesday, Donald Trump’s Republican Administration Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin offered House Speaker Nancy Pelosi a $ 916 billion proposal, higher than the $ 908 billion proposal. presented this week. approved by a bipartisan group of congressmen.
Pelosi and the Democratic leader in the Senate said the proposal represents progress, but said it should not overshadow the bipartisan proposal. They especially reject the White House proposal that funding for unemployment benefits be cut from $ 180 billion to $ 40 billion.
Acceleration of transmission and vaccination in Brazil
According to data from the Ministry of Health, Brazil registered 842 deaths from Covid on Tuesday. As a result, the moving average of deaths reaches the highest level since the beginning of October. 51,088 new cases were reported Tuesday.
Also on Tuesday, Imperial College London said the transmission rate of the new coronavirus rose again, reaching 1.14. This means that every 100 infected people contaminate another 114, which contaminate 130, and so on, exponentially.
In November, the rate reached 1.3, the highest since the end of May. Last week, it had dropped to 1.02. Furthermore, Imperial College also stated that 75% of the Manaus population has been infected with Covid since March.
Eight capitals – Florianópolis, Curitiba, Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Recife, Vitória and Campo Grande – currently have more than 80% of the ICU beds occupied. In Rio de Janeiro, there is a queue of almost 500 people per bed for Covid.
On Monday, São Paulo Governor João Doria (PSDB) announced that priority groups should start getting vaccinated at the end of January. Also on Monday, the federal government announced that it plans to buy 70 million doses of the vaccine produced by Pfizer and BioNTech, with a view to starting federal vaccination in Brazil.
The Minister of Health, General Eduardo Pazuello, declared this Tuesday to the press, in the Planalto Palace, that the government intends to buy any vaccine against Covid-19 registered with Anvisa (National Health Surveillance Agency).
He affirmed that the ministry “follows the evolution of immunizers at an accelerated rate and with full responsibility.” And he added: “We cannot divide Brazil in a difficult moment that we all go through.”
Pazuello met with governors, who later stated that the Ministry of Health plans to present the vaccine distribution plan this Wednesday.
Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado (DEM) affirmed that the government intends to approve internationally certified vaccines for emergency use in Brazil.
“What he [o ministro] it is clear that action is being taken. Any person certified by the international agency will be evaluated within 72 hours by Anvisa, as required by law, and will be applied as for emergency use. Not in politics [de vacinação] extended to everyone, but those most at risk, like our medical profession, ”said Caiado.
President Jair Bolsonaro (no party) said on Tuesday that the Covid-19 vaccine is intended to protect the population and should not be used for political purposes, in what was interpreted as an indirect criticism of Governor João Doria.
“Brazil will make the vaccines available free of charge and voluntarily after their proven effectiveness and registration with Anvisa. We will protect the population by respecting their freedom, and we will not use it for political purposes, putting their health at risk for personal power projects, ”Bolsonaro said on Twitter.
In the meeting with governors, Minister Pazuello said that he expects federal vaccination to begin in February 2021.
Congress and tax reforms
Bolsonaro said Tuesday that he saw “perfect harmony” between the government and the National Congress, and said that “no one is going to destroy” this relationship. The speech came two days after the Federal Supreme Court (STF) prohibited the possibility of reelection of the mayors, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ), and the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (DEM-AP).
“Now we have, Ricardo Barros (speaking with the government leader in the Chamber who was in the audience), an excellent relationship with the Chamber and the Senate,” he said, in a ceremony at the Palácio do Planalto to launch a training program of health agents.
The government’s priority is the approval of tax reforms. According to the newspaper Valor, the most recent version of the report on the PECs that promote fiscal adjustment, whose rapporteur is Marcio Bittar (MDB-A), foresees measures to control expenditures at the level of the Union and of the states, municipalities and powers of government.
According to the newspaper, the basic rule proposed to the Federal Government is that the trigger for the reckoning actions is activated when mandatory spending exceeds 95% of total spending.
Among the measures defined for fiscal adjustment in the PEC is the prohibition of readjustments or salary increases, or readjustments of any nature for civil and military servants. Neither could jobs, jobs or functions be created, nor could a career restructuring take place leading to increased spending. Public tenders would be prohibited, except for the replacement of vacancies.
More shocking actions, such as a 25% reduction in employee wages and hours, were removed from the text. In addition, on Tuesday, the Chamber of Deputies approved, by 296 votes to 105, a requirement that gives urgency to the processing of a bill that alters Brazilian legislation on the foreign exchange market. As a result, the proposal, which includes a list of issues considered essential by the economic team, moves more quickly in the House.
The project deals with the Brazilian exchange market, Brazilian capital abroad, foreign capital in the country and the supply of information to the Central Bank of Brazil.
Also Tuesday, the Senate approved an interim measure that created the Casa Verde e Amarela housing program, replacing Minha Casa, Minha Vida. The MP, which follows the presidential sanction, creates a program to finance construction and minor reforms for those with a monthly family income of up to R $ 7,000 in urban areas and up to R $ 84,000 per year in rural areas.
Discussions about the emergency PEC are still on the radar. Senator Márcio Bittar (MDB-AC) said in a remote session that he sent the draft text of the proposal to all party leaders, which generates triggers to control public spending. He is the rapporteur for this proposal.
Bittar, who is also the rapporteur for Budget 2021, said that PEC’s goal will be to send a signal to all of Brazil to resume the fiscal austerity agenda. o According to Márcio Bittar, there is a “very great” possibility that the PEC will be voted on before the end of the year, although the text to be analyzed is not the report that he would like to present. The senator said that he would incorporate de-indexing, untying, he would stay with the text when he says that when the state, the municipality, the budget runs out, the one who has to pay is the one who broke the budget, and not society.
Corporate radar
The Rede D’Or São Luiz group of hospitals on Tuesday valued an initial offering of shares at R $ 57.92 per share, in the largest IPO of a Brazilian company since 2013, according to information on the website of the Commission of Brazilian Stock Exchange (CVM).
The transaction values the group at R $ 112.5 billion, placing it among the 10 Brazilian companies with the highest market value listed at B3, ahead of Banco do Brasil.
S&P Dow Jones Indices excluded Carrefour Brasil from an index that brings together shares of companies committed to good governance and stricter standards of social and environmental posture. The measure comes weeks after the death of a black man in a collective store in Porto Alegre (RS), after being beaten by security guards who worked in the unit.
In an online event organized by the Brazil Institute, the director of Infrastructure, PPP Concessions of BNDES (National Bank for Economic and Social Development), Fábio Abraão, affirmed that the bank “is running out of time” to make a concession auction feasible . water distribution and wastewater collection and treatment in 47 of the 64 municipalities served by Cedae (Companhia Estadual de Águas e Esgotos), in Rio de Janeiro.
On Tuesday, the Mines and Energy ministry said Brazil should hold four auctions to contract new power generation projects in 2021, in addition to a tender to modernize existing thermal power plants, after canceling tenders scheduled for this year due to uncertainties. associated with the coronavirus pandemic.
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