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SÃO PAULO – The Ibovespa Futuro opens in decline this Thursday (26), correcting part of the recent highs after the spot index rose almost 3,000 points in three trading sessions. Today is Thanksgiving in the United States, which reduces liquidity in the market, since most foreign investors will be on vacation.
Here, the expectation is due to the General Registry of Employed and Unemployed (Caged) and the offers of LTN, NTN-F and LFT from the National Treasury. Regarding Caged, yesterday the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, said that the data was positive in recent months and today it will also be good.
“It is possible that we will end the year losing 200,000 or 300,000 jobs. This is a quarter of what was lost in the self-imposed recession of 2015 and 2016 ”, defended the minister.
At 09h13 (Brasilia time), the future index for December fell by 0.35%, to 109,690 points.
The US dollar maturing in December registered an increase of 0.42%, to R $ 5,347.
In the future interest market, the ID of January 2022 rises two basis points to 3.36%, the ID of January 2023 rises four basis points to 5.16%, the ID of January 2025 advances three points- 6.97% and the DI of January 2027 registered a positive variation of four basis points to 7.72%.
Outside, Germany postponed the new lockdown until December 20, and Chancellor Angela Merkel said the isolation measures could be extended again until January if contagion data doesn’t go back enough for the economy to reopen.
Regarding vaccines, AstraZeneca Executive Vice President Mene Pangalos responded to criticism that there was insufficient data on clinical trial results released earlier this week. In one type of application, in which a half dose is applied and then reinforced with a full dose, the vaccine has reached a 90% level of effectiveness.
However, this application occurred due to a dosing error, leading to skepticism about the results. “I’m not going to pretend it’s not an interesting result, because it is, but I certainly don’t understand it, and I don’t think any of us understand it,” he said.
This test was the only scenario in which AstraZeneca’s product achieved the same level of effectiveness announced by competitors as Moderna, the partnership between BioNTech and Pfizer, and the Gamaleya Institute, linked to the Russian government. In none of the cases, however, was the data published in independent scientific journals and the announcements are still based on information relayed to the press.
On Wednesday, 2,294 new deaths from Covid-19 were recorded in the United States, the highest level on record since late June.
Despite a challenging fiscal environment, Brazil has made important reforms in recent years and there is a very positive scenario of low interest rates and a sharp curve, something the country has never had in its life, said Luis Stuhlberger, founding partner of Verde Asset Management, in the Best Companies. the Stock Market, the InfoMoney we do Stock pickers . The event is online and free and runs until today. To participate, just register here.
New bankruptcy law and end of IOF exemption
The Senate approved the new Bankruptcy Law to streamline judicial reorganization processes in the country. The proposal contemplates new rules for debt renegotiation in order to prevent companies from closing their doors and declaring bankruptcy.
As it was already approved by the Chamber of Deputies, the text now passes to the sanction of President Jair Bolsonaro. The project provides that companies undergoing judicial reorganization have better conditions to negotiate debts with the Federal Government, with installments of up to 120 months, that is, 10 years. Today, the maximum term is seven years.
Also in the spotlight, the federal government anticipated the end of the IOF exemption on financial operations, in compensation for expenses with the temporary free energy rates for residents of Amapá affected by the blackout. The event lasted 22 days, power was restored on Tuesday, and reached 100% of the state on Wednesday.
The anticipation of the return of the IOF collection was signed this Wednesday afternoon (25) by President Jair Bolsonaro (no party). The measure had been taken as a way to boost the economy during the pandemic, and was initially planned for the end of 2020. But it was advanced until today, Thursday (26).
With the return of the collection, the General Secretariat of the Presidency says that it expects the Union to transfer up to R $ 80 million to the CDE (Energy Development Account), without prorating the cost among energy consumers in the rest of Brazil, as it was considered. . The fee waiver for affected residents in Amapá is implemented in the context of a public calamity.
Tax Reform
Deputy Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB), rapporteur for the PEC (constitutional reform proposal) 45 on tax reform, promised the opposition parties that he will present his opinion next week.
PEC unifies five taxes in a Tax on Goods and Services.
According to the newspaper Valor, the speaker intends to include in the text the taxation of dividends, the prohibition of interest on equity in the balance sheets and the taxation of inheritance and assets in a progressive model, that is, with higher charges depending on the amount.
Currently, the taxation of company dividends is prohibited by law. Currently, the ITCMD (Tax on Deaths and Donations Transmission) is the responsibility of the states, with a maximum rate of 8%. According to the parliamentarians heard by Valor, the PEC vote would open the possibility of increasing the maximum rate.
The speaker also indicates the possibility of including in the PEC the collection of the IPVA (Tax on Motor Vehicles) from aircraft and boats, as a way of increasing taxes on the wealthiest. Changes in the income tax of natural and legal persons would be debated in future laws.
On Wednesday, the president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, said, in a virtual event promoted by the Sicoob credit cooperative, that Brazil needs to gain credibility through reforms and a plan that shows that the country is concerned about public debt. .
He said that the economy would gain more with credibility than with the extension of measures to mitigate the pandemic effect that involve more public spending. “There comes a point where the fiscal situation is so fragile that it can generate growth in the short term, but the lack of credibility can affect that from the outset and generate an effect contrary to the desired, contractionary,” he said.
In mid-November, Economy Minister Paulo Guedes even stated that the government could extend the payment of emergency aid in the event of a resurgence of the coronavirus. Subsequently, he made a statement to rule out this possibility.
Consulted in front of the Ministry of Economy on Wednesday night, Paulo Guedes was asked about the statement made hours before by Campos Neto, and he replied: “President Campos Neto knows what the plan is. If he has a better plan, ask him what his plan is, which plan will restore credibility. ” “Anyone who doesn’t have a five-year plan will go through Argentina, Venezuela,” he said.
In a previous talk with businessmen, the minister also stated that the lack of products in the domestic market is a “good sign” that consumer demand is returning strongly, along with job creation.
“We reduced the productive capacity a little [no início da pandemia], stocks were not replenished and suddenly [houve] a strong boost in demand. There is a lack of paper, packaging (…) But it is a good sign that the demand is coming, it is pulling, ”he said.
Corporate radar
Featured in corporate news, Petrobras published a strategic plan, forecasting a capital expenditure of US $ 55 billion for 2021-2025; 84% in exploration and production.
In Cielo, Mauro Ribeiro Neto assumes the presidency of the Board of Directors. Oi starts auctions for the sale of towers and data center assets.
At least 17 neighborhoods in the city of Rio de Janeiro, where about a million people live, have suffered for more than a week with irregular water supply or total scarcity. The problem began on the 17th, when Senator Vasconcelos’s engine broke down. Other equipment was already damaged and the spare was under maintenance.
The newspaper O Globo prints in a cover story that the crisis occurs at the launch of the tender for the concession of water distribution services by Cedae (State Water Company of the State of Guanabara), scheduled for 18 from December. Cedae says the repair can take up to 25 days to complete. Until then, there should be rotation between neighborhoods.
Espírito Santo plans to cede control of its gas distribution company by selling 25% of the company’s shares in a transaction on B3, the São Paulo stock exchange, local officials told the international news agency Reuters on the fourth. .
The state government currently owns 51% of ES Gás. Fuel distributor BR Distribuidora has the remaining stake, but will also sell 25%, Espírito Santo Governor Renato Casagrande (PSB) told Reuters before announcing Thursday. the privatization of the company.
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