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SÃO PAULO – Ibovespa fell sharply this Monday (21) after the behavior of the international stock markets. The pessimism stems from the news that the UK is considering a new lockdown due to the increase in the number of new coronavirus cases. In Europe, bank stocks continue to fall sharply after investigations involving financial institutions.
Spain has already limited the displacement of 850,000 residents of southern Madrid, allowing them only to leave home to work, go to the doctor or take children to school.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the coronavirus persists and still kills 50,000 people a week. The market is also following negotiations in Washington to launch a new stimulus package in the United States.
Nor does the analysis that the death of US Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg could further hamper negotiations between Democrats and Republicans in Congress to pass a new economic stimulus package in Congress does not help to encourage investors. combat impacts. of the pandemic.
US President Donald Trump said he would name someone this week to replace Bader Ginsburg, something that should put the two sides in conflict again.
For Fernando Genta, chief economist at XP Asset, many did not believe in the second wave of the coronavirus, but the growing number of deaths in Israel and Europe on the eve of the development of a vaccine raises concern again.
Genta also notes that the US tax package is increasingly far from being approved before the elections, which he believes will be problematic. “The mixture of coronavirus plus mail-in votes and a polarized scenario may legalize the dispute,” he explained during a Stock Pickers live show early Monday.
At 10:14 am (Brasilia time) the Ibovespa fell 1.54%, to 96,779 points. It should be remembered that today is the expiration date for stock options, which should increase volatility due to the traditional dispute between purchase and sale.
Meanwhile, the commercial dollar rises 1.5% to R $ 5.4555 in the purchase and R $ 5.4557 in the sale. The future dollar for October rose 0.79% to R $ 5,435.
In the future interest market, the DI of January 2022 rises four basis points to 3.04%, the DI of January 2023 gains seven basis points to 4.50%, the DI of January 2025 advances nine basis points at 6.44% and the DI for January 2027 varies positively seven basis points at 7.42%.
In addition to monitoring new coronavirus cases, investors will be keeping an eye on bank actions after large financial institutions have been accused of dealing with illicit funds.
According to a report published by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ), US government documents show that banks have challenged anti-money laundering laws, transferring large amounts of illicit origin to dark accounts and criminal networks. The investigation revealed $ 2 trillion in suspicious transactions involving banks between 1999 and 2017.
On the London Stock Exchange, HSBC’s shares fell 6.09% and Standard Chartered’s fell 5.45% this morning. According to FactSet, at the beginning of trading, HSBC shares had fallen to their lowest level in more than 25 years. In Hong Kong, HSBC and Standard Chartered shares fell 5.33% and 6.18%, reaching the lowest levels since 1995 and 2002.
However, the loss is distributed by other institutions on the European stock exchanges, because there are also indications of similar illegal operations in relation to other banks on the continent, such as Barclays (-6.57%) and Deutsche Bank (-6.40%) . , for example.
Still on the international front, attention was drawn on Saturday to the approval of the agreement between Oracle and Tik Tok by President Donald Trump. The agreement aims to avoid a ban on the application on US soil.
In Brazil, the malaise with the fiscal scenario in the country continues amid growing doubts about the ability of the National Treasury to refinance the public debt.
Still on the radar, government officials debated the Federative Pact with Senator Márcio Bittar (MDB-AC) this weekend.
According to Folha de S.Paulo, the proposal reduces mandatory expenses and paves the way for new expenses starting next year. The updated calculations point to savings of more than R $ 30 billion in 2021, while the slimmer version would save around R $ 20 billion.
Among the indicators, financial market economists foresee this week a drop in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) lower in 2020 than they predicted last week, the Central Bank’s Focus Report showed. The median GDP projection for this year was -5.11% to -5.05%. For 2021, the expectation continues to grow by 3.50%.
Relative to the Comprehensive National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for 2020, the median estimate from economists increased from 1.94% last week to 1.99% this week. The projection for 2021 remained at 3.01%.
The forecast for the dollar at the end of 2020 continued at R $ 5.25 and for 2021 it continued at R $ 5.00.
Finally, the expectation for the basic interest rate, Selic, remained at 2.00% per year for 2020 and 2.50% per year for 2021.
Federative pact
According to a report by leaf, the updated calculations indicate an economy of more than R $ 30 billion in 2021, while the slimmer version would save around R $ 20 billion. The figures depend on the approval of President Jair Bolsonaro.
The possibility of reducing costs is being studied by a new social program, although the president said last week that Renda Brasil is out of the question.
According to the newspaper, allies of the president defend the creation of a low-income initiative, even if another name is used. Bittar’s report on the PEC of the Federative Pact is almost ready, and the text is now being discussed with members of the Executive.
In addition, it was reported that the deputies intend to cut the benefits of judges, prosecutors and prosecutors in the administrative reform. According to State of S. Paulo, the amendments that limit the vacations of all public officials to 30 days a year, including for judges, should be included in the PEC, in addition to the end of privileges, such as mandatory retirement as a punishment for those who already work.
Still under administrative reform, it is expected that an independent body will be created for the management of the federal public service, which would function as a human resources agency.
According to leaf, the agency would be responsible for creating criteria for filling commissioned positions, mapping to reassign people, and evaluating performance. The latter can result in the dismissal of public officials, including those already in office.
At the same time, the government is preparing a decree to regulate new concessions of the Continuous Term Benefit (BPC), paid to the elderly and low-income disabled people, starting in 2021. According to the State of S. Paulo, the change will allow the inclusion of almost 500 thousand people in the BPC.
The additional cost, of R $ 5.8 billion, will be offset by reducing costs with prosecution and anti-fraud measures, which can save up to R $ 10 billion. In other words, the net effect would still be a saving of R $ 4.2 billion.
Replacement for Waldery Rodrigues
Another highlight is the information that the Ministry of Economy is analyzing three names to fill the position of Waldery Rodrigues, special secretary of the Treasury. According to Folha de S.PauloThey are Esteves Colnago and Jeferson Bittencourt, special advisers to the Minister of Economy Paulo Guedes, and Bruno Funchal, secretary of the National Treasury.
The exchange should take a while to happen because he is considered a relevant name in the ministry, but all the names considered are well evaluated by the minister, according to the newspaper.
Still on the radar, the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, was ordered to pay R $ 50,000 in damages to the Federal Police Union of Bahia (Sindipol-BA) for comparing public servants with ‘parasites’ in an event in February this year. The Federal Prosecutor’s Office announced that it will appeal the sentence handed down by the IV Federal Civil Court of the Bahia Judicial Section (SJBA).
Corporate radar
On the corporate front, investors are seeing construction company and developer Cury debut on the stock market. The company is a subsidiary of Cyrela. The market will also react to the purchase of a school by Ser Educacional in Ceará, for R $ 24 million.
In addition, Banco do Brasil has published plans that it aims to be among the three largest banks in the Brazilian capital market within four years, while Latam received approval from the Southern District Court of New York for the modified financing proposal, process of judicial reorganization.
Also on Friday, Suzano reported that BNDES Participações is conducting a public offering of secondary distribution of shares, issued by Suzano and owned by BNDESPar.
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