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SÃO PAULO – The Ibovespa registered a fall this Thursday (29), after falling 4.25% in the previous trading session.
Concerns about the second wave of coronavirus in the world continue to weigh negatively and cast a shadow over US GDP, above expectations, and the results of Ambev (ABEV3), Bradesco (BBDC3; BBDC4), Petrobras (PETR3; PETR4) and Vale (VALE3). ). Petrobras had a positive result, according to market analysts, but the shares fell on a new day of heavy losses for oil.
Yesterday, both France and Germany announced closures to contain the spread of the disease, prompting investors to project an even more committed performance for the global economy in 2020.
The day is also important. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States grew 33.1% in the third quarter of 2020 compared to the second quarter in annualized terms. According to the Bloomberg consensus, the median economists’ expectation for the data was a 32% advance.
Unemployment insurance claims in the United States were also released today, reaching 751,000 last week. This figure was lower than the median of the economists’ expectations compiled in the Bloomberg consensus, which pointed to 770 thousand requests for benefits in the period.
At 10:08 am (Brasilia time), the Ibovespa fell slightly 0.98%, to 94,424 points.
Meanwhile, the commercial dollar has a slight positive variation of 0.21% to R $ 5,774 in the purchase and R $ 5,775 in the sale. The US dollar maturing in November registered an increase of 0.64%, to R $ 5,784.
In the future interest market, the ID of January 2022 falls three basis points to 3.46%, the ID of January 2023 rises four basis points to 5.03%, the ID of January 2025 advances nine basis points in 6.75% and the DI of January 2027 registered a positive variation of 11 basis points at 7.53%.
Here, a new incident occurred between the powers, but the fire was quickly put out. Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ), president of the Chamber of Deputies, said that the president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, leaked a private conversation he had with him the day before.
Campos Neto sought out Maia to express his fears about the political crisis and the possibility that the reforms will not go through Congress. According to the interlocutors, Maia told Campos Neto the same thing he has responded in public: that the obstruction starts from the base of the government.
Later on Twitter, Maia said she received a call from the president of BC stating that he did not reveal the conversation to the press. “In the president’s word, the leak was certainly caused by third parties. Here I register the connection and trust that I have in him ”, defended the mayor.
Still on the radar, the Central Bank kept the Selic and confirmed the facing forward rates unchanged. Some analysts see a statement like docile (favorable to monetary relaxation to stimulate the economy) despite recent inflationary pressure and the paralysis of reforms, while there are those who point out that the Central Bank closed the doors to further cuts.
Also in politics, President Jair Bolsonaro (without a party) retracted a proposal to study private alliances for works and administration of Basic Health Units, a measure that had aroused fears of privatization of the SUS.
Attention also to corporate news here, with the impact of the figures reported by Petrobras, Vale, Bradesco, Ambev, among other companies.
Government withdrawals
After negative repercussions, President Jair Bolsonaro (without a party) revoked the decree that 10,530. The document authorized studies to establish alliances between the public and private sectors, for the construction and administration of UBS (Basic Health Units).
The measure raised concerns about a possible privatization of the SUS, and was rejected by parliamentarians, experts, former ministers and generated a commotion in the networks.
By taking a step back, Bolsonaro defended the decree, stating that the objective was to make the completion of works at SUS feasible. He said the idea that the service was destined to be privatized was “false.”
The decree was signed by Bolsonaro and the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, but not by the Minister of Health, General Eduardo Pazuello.
In a note reproduced by the UOL portal, the Ministry of Economy denounced that the decree was requested by the Ministry of Health, commanded by General Eduardo Pazuello. “According to the Ministry of Health, private participation in the sector is important due to fiscal restrictions and the difficulties to improve the governance model through traditional contracts.”
But, according to Estadão, the revocation took the Ministry of Health itself by surprise. According to the newspaper, the portfolio took almost a full day to answer questions.
The answer came around the same time that Bolsonaro was backing down publicly. The Ministry of Health sent a note to Coluna do Estadão defending the aborted proposal, claiming that it was a request from the portfolio. The note said that “joint evaluation (with the economy) is necessary to encourage private sector participation.”
Citing government sources, the column affirms that Pazuello was, again, “sold”, that is, he was taken by surprise by the episode.
Intention to invest
According to a reading of the FGV Investment Survey published by Valor newspaper this Thursday, the investment intention of the private sector is being tested in the coming months. The survey consulted 4,050 companies.
According to the quarterly survey, after a record retraction in the period from April to June, industry, services, commerce and construction indicate a greater investment intention for the next 12 months until the third quarter of 2021.
The more points the indicator has, the greater the intention to invest in the next 12 months.
In industry, investment intentions reached 104.1 points, 47.8 more than in the second quarter. In commerce, it reached 109.9 points, an increase of 31.7 points compared to the second quarter. Construction reached 94.3 points, 29.7 points more than in the second quarter. In services, it reached 91.4 points, an increase of 33 points compared to the second quarter.
The strongest reactions in the industrial and retail sectors are driven by demand for non-durable consumer goods such as food and internet sales.
Still, around a third of entrepreneurs continue to show uncertainty about making investments in the next 12 months.
In industry, 28.2% of entrepreneurs are unsure about investing, compared to 49.5% in the second quarter. In services, 49.1% of entrepreneurs show investment uncertainty, compared to 66.5% in the second quarter. In commerce, 35.7% show uncertainty, compared to 41.1% in the second quarter. And in construction, 40.3% show uncertainty, compared to 65.9% in the second quarter.
Corporate radar
On Wednesday, Vale reported a 76% increase in its earnings in the third quarter compared to the same period last year, with results driven by Chinese demand and the high price of iron ore. Net income reached $ 2.9 billion.
Petrobras had a loss of R $ 1.5 billion in the third quarter. The outcome was affected by elements such as joining the tax amnesty program, the company said Wednesday.
“We highlight the approval of adherence to tax amnesty programs that affect both net income and adjusted Ebitda, and the premium paid for the repurchase of securities, which only affected net income,” said the state company.
Ebitda profit was R $ 33.4 billion, compared to R $ 32.6 billion in the same period of 2019.
Also on Wednesday, Bradesco announced a recurring profit of R $ 5 billion in the third quarter, about 15% above the average of analysts’ estimates, according to Refinitiv data. However, the level is 23.1% below the profit of the previous year.
On the morning of this Thursday, Ambev reported a profit of R $ 2,274 billion in the third quarter, 8.9% less in the annual comparison. The values refer to those attributable to the controllers.
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