Ibovespa closes almost stable with policies that overshadow abroad; Dollar and DI rise with Bolsonaro speech

SÃO PAULO – Ibovespa closed very close to stability on Tuesday (15) after the political news outweighed the good news from abroad. Today, the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices posted slight increases ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates tomorrow and reflect strong data from the Chinese economy.

Already here, President Jair Bolsonaro expressed his concern about the dispute between the economic team and the development wing of his government, saying that “it is forbidden to speak of Renda Brasil” in his administration and that Bolsa Família continues until 2022.

Bolsonaro criticized the economic team’s ideas to freeze pensions and cut aid for the elderly and the poor with disabilities. “This is a dream of someone disconnected from reality,” said the president. “Anyone who comes to propose a measure like this can only give a red card, because they don’t have a heart and they don’t understand how retirees live.”

Later, the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, assured that the “red card” was not for him, something that slightly eased the mood of the market. It should be remembered that the signs of deindexation of the minimum wage and pensions were openly pronounced by the special secretary of Finance of the Ministry of Economy, Waldery Rodrigues.

As a result, the Ibovespa had a slight positive variation of 0.02%, in 100,297 points with a financial volume of R $ 24.41 billion.

Meanwhile, the commercial dollar rose 0.27% to R $ 5.2856 in the purchase and R $ 5,289 in the sale, having slightly reduced earnings after Guedes’ speech. The future dollar for October rose 0.27%, to R $ 5,287 in the Secondary market.

In the future interest market, the ID of January 2022 rose five basis points to 2.87%, the ID of January 2023 recorded gains of seven basis points to 4.16%, the ID of January 2025 advanced nine points basis at 6.04% and the DI of January 2027 changed positively seven basis points at 7.02%.

As for China, the country reported an industrial production growth of 5.6% in August compared to the same month last year, above the median expectation of economists, which pointed to an increase of 5.1%. Retail sales advanced 0.5%, showing the first expansion of the indicator in the year. The estimate was of stability in number.

According to the Bradesco BBI analysis team, Chinese household consumption data in August came as a positive surprise, possibly due to consumer response to the relative control of the pandemic and less restrictions on mobility.

Investors are still waiting for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which began today to make the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision tomorrow. The meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), which will decide on the Brazilian interest rate, also started on Tuesday.

Regarding raw materials, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its forecast for an increase in oil demand for 2020. The world demand expectation was 91.7 million barrels per day, a reduction of 8, 4 million barrels per day in the annual comparison.

However, oil rose before Hurricane Sally hit the Gulf Coast of the United States. More than a quarter of U.S. oil and gas production has been disrupted and key ports for the country’s exports have been closed as the storm moves into western Alabama, saving some refineries from the winds. stronger. Brent closed up 2.3% at $ 40.53 a barrel, while WTI was up 2.7% at $ 38.28 a barrel. Both contracts had been rolled back the day before.

Brazil income

From the point of view of public accounts, it is evaluated that Bolsonaro’s speech could reduce fiscal risks, since the new minimum income program was seen as one of the main challenges to meet the spending ceiling next year.

On the other hand, the level of uncertainty remains high. “The speech was murky. The fact of not creating Renda Brasil does not mean that it will not be able to eventually strengthen Bolsa Familia, it would be an endogenous adjustment to the program instead of creating others, changing Farmacia Popular, etc. ”Says Thiago Vidal, analyst at Prospectiva Consultoria.

“Of course, that’s why I wouldn’t escape the Roof. So, even if the Bolsa Família changes from within, to increase it (either the amount of the benefit and / or the number of people benefited), it will be necessary to address the tax issue. That is, new expenses at the end of the day ”, he adds.

The stalemate, says the analyst, has not been closed, even though Bolsonaro has tried to end the discussion by spreading the video on social media. “Bolsonaro certainly will not want to discontinue emergency aid,” he bet.

Forgive the churches

After President Jair Bolsonaro vetoed the cancellation of R $ 1 billion in tax debts of the church, representatives of the evangelical group are working together to revoke the veto.

Yesterday, the president of the evangelical group of the House, Silas Câmara (Republicans-AM), said that he had a majority to maintain the forgiveness of the churches. According to the State of S.Paulo, the bank will meet today to discuss its strategy.

Even in the churches, he was informed by the State of S.Paulo that the government is studying a way to immunize taxes on churches through a proposed constitutional amendment (PEC), which must be sent before the veto vote, scheduled for October.

The Ministry of Economy opposes the measure. Today, churches have immunity from the collection of taxes, but the protection does not come to contributions, like the CSLL and social security.

Inflation and reelection

In addition, President Bolsonaro declared again last night that there will be no price fixing to contain food inflation. He noted that the increase in rice is due to increased consumption and that increased imports should help alleviate the situation.

It also draws attention Stadium / Broadcast showing that the leaders of the majority of the parties support an end to reelection to executive positions. The measure has the support of 15 of the 24 parties represented in the House and Senate.

Last week, Congressman Alessandro Molon (RJ) presented a proposal to amend the Constitution (PEC) to prohibit reelection. The issue took center stage after former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso declared that he was wrong to be reelected.

Another national highlight is the appointment of the acting Minister of Health, Eduardo Pazuello, in office. The military will take office tomorrow (16). He took office on May 16, after serving as executive secretary of the Nelson Teich administration. Yesterday, Brazil reached 132,006 lives lost since the start of the pandemic.

Corporate radar

Today, the market continues to monitor the transaction between Ser Educacional and Laureate. After Ser offered R $ 4 billion for Laureate’s Brazilian assets, Yduqs declared that it could enter the dispute.

A Folha de S.Paulo published that Cogna, the leader of the sector, will not stop and will be able to make an offer to defend its first position in the market. Another possible target for Cogna could be Uniasselvi.

Higher highs

Higher number of casualties

Investors also follow the definition of the price per share of the Plano & Plano offering. In addition, Petrobras announced a reduction in its investment plans for the period 2021 to 2025. According to the state company, the investment will be between US $ 40 billion and US $ 50 billion.

Minerva said it is studying the sale of 25% of the Athena Foods subsidiary to a special purpose company listed on Nasdaq (SPAC) for US $ 200 million.

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