Ibope survey in São Paulo: Russomanno, 25%; Covas, 22%; Boulos, 10%; France, 7%; Tatto, 4% | 2020 elections in São Paulo

• Celso Russomanno (Republicans): 25%
• Bruno Covas (PSDB): 22%
• Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 10%
• Márcio França (PSB): 7%
• Jilmar Tatto (PT): 4%
• Arthur do Val – Mamãe Fali (Patriot): 2%
• Vera Lúcia (PSTU): 1%
• Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 1%
• Levy Fidelix (PRTB): 1%
• Marina Helou (Chain): 1%
• Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 1%
• Orlando Silva (PCdoB): 1%
• Filipe Sabará (New): 1%
• None / blank / null: 17%
• Don’t know / No answer: 7%

Antonio Carlos Silva (PCO) has less than 1%.

In relation to the previous Ibope survey, on October 2:

• Russomanno went from 26% to 25%;
• Covas went from 21% to 22%;
• Boulos went from 8% to 10%;
• France remained at 7%;
• Jilmar Tatto went from 1% to 4%;
• Arthur do Val went from 1% to 2%;
• Vera Lúcia went from 2% to 1%;
• Joice Hasselmann stayed at 1%;
• Levy Fidelix stayed at 1%;
• Marina Helou remained at 1%;
• Andrea Matarazzo remained at 1%;
• Orlando Silva remained at 1%;
• Filipe Sabará went from 0% to 1%;
• Antônio Carlos went from 1% to 0%;
• White and null went from 20% to 17%;
• The undecided went from 8% to 7%.

See the Ibope survey in São Paulo on October 2.

According to Ibope, Celso Russomano stands out among evangelicals and among those with an average monthly family income of up to 1 minimum wage, reaching 38% and 33% of mentions, respectively. Compared to the poll conducted earlier this month, the candidate’s voting intentions fluctuate positively among voters with a median household income of more than 5 times the minimum wage (12% to 18%). Among Paulistanos between 35 and 44 years old, the mentions fell 7 percentage points (from 31% to 24%) and among Catholics they varied from 26% to 20%.

The mentions of Bruno Covas grew mainly among young people, between 16 and 24 years old, now reaching 21% compared to 12% in the previous round.

Voting intentions in Guilherme Boulos increased by 7 percentage points among voters aged 35 to 44 (from 5% to 12%) and among those of religions other than Catholic and Evangelical, from 16% to 23%. In this last segment, the candidate also achieves his highest proportion of voting intentions (23%). In addition, it stands out among voters with an average family income above 5 times the minimum wage, with 19% of citations.

The poll also asked who voters would not vote for at all. The percentages were as follows:

• Celso Russomanno: 30%
• Joice Hasselmann: 24%
• Bruno Covas: 23%
• Levy Fidelix: 21%
• Guilherme Boulos: 18%
• Jilmar’s Tattoo: 16%
• Márcio França: 14%
• Arthur do Val: 13%
• Orlando Silva: 13%
• Filipe Sabará: 12%
• Vera Lúcia: 11%
• Andrea Matarazzo: 10%
• Marina Helou: 9%
• Antonio Carlos Silva: 8%
• Could vote for everyone: 4%
• Don’t know / didn’t answer: 11%

Respondents could indicate more than one answer, so the sum of the mentioned factors is more than 100%

Ibope also addressed the spontaneous intention to vote, when the voter says who they will vote for without the names of the candidates being presented. See the results:

• Bruno Covas (PSDB): 13%
• Celso Russomanno (Republicans): 10%
• Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 9%
• Márcio França (PSB): 3%
• Jilmar’s Tattoo: 2%
• Arthur do Val (Patriot): 1%
• Levy Fidelix: 1%
• Andrea Matarazzo: 1%
• Antônio Carlos: 0%
• Joice Hasselmann: 0%
• Marina Helou: 0%
• Orlando Silva: 0%
• Filipe Sabará: 0%
• Others: 1%
• White or null: 18%
• Don’t know or prefer not to comment: 40%

Second shift simulations

Ibope also questioned, if there is a second round between Bruno Covas and Celso Russomanno, in which voters would vote:

• Bruno Covas 40% X 39% Celso Russomanno (white / null: 18%; don’t know: 3%)

• Margin of error: 3 percentage points more or less;
• Who was heard: 1001 voters from the city of São Paulo;
• When the survey was conducted: October 13-15;
• Identification number in the Electoral Tribunal: SP – 01432/2020;
• The survey was commissioned by TV Globo and the newspaper “O Estado de S. Paulo”
• The confidence level used is 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the results reflect the current electoral moment, considering the margin of error.

Electoral surveys: what is a sample, margin of error and level of confidence.

VIDEOS: Ask Questions About the 2020 Election