Ibope survey in São Paulo: Covas, 32%; Boulos, 13%; Russomanno, 12%; France, 10% | 2020 elections in São Paulo

• Bruno Covas (PSDB): 32%
• Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 13%
• Celso Russomanno (Republicans): 12%
• Márcio França (PSB): 10%
• Jilmar Tatto (PT): 6%
• Arthur do Val – Mamãe Fali (Patriot): 5%
• Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 2%
• Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 1%
• Levy Fidelix (PRTB): 1%
• Orlando Silva (PCdoB): 1%
• White / null: 11%
• Don’t know / No answer: 5%

Antônio Carlos (PCO), Marina Helou (Rede) and Vera Lúcia (PSTU) had less than 1%.

In relation to the previous Ibope survey, dated October 30:

• Covas went from 26% to 32%;
• Boulos remained at 13%;
• Russomanno went from 20% to 12%;
• France went from 11% to 10%;
• Jilmar Tatto remained at 6%;
• Arthur do Val went from 3% to 5%;
• Joice Hasselmann got 2%;
• Andrea Matarazzo remained at 1%;
• Levy Fidelix stayed at 1%;
• Orlando Silva stayed at 1%;
• Vera Lúcia remained at 0%;
• Marina Helou remained at 0%;
• Antônio Carlos remained at 0%;
• White and null went from 10% to 11%;
• The undecided stayed at 5%.

See the previous Ibope survey, from October 30.

See Ibope’s previous survey, October 15.

See the Ibope survey in São Paulo on October 2.

According to Ibope, Bruno Covas stands out among voters who positively value his management (64%) and those surveyed 55 years of age or older (40%). In relation to the previous round, the candidate grows mainly in the following profiles:

• 45 to 54 years: 24% to 37%
• Self declared black / brown: 24% to 33%
• Evangelicals: 22% to 37%
• Average monthly household income of up to 1 minimum wage: 25% to 34%
• Positive assessment of current management: from 54% to 64%

Guilherme Boulos has more intentions among the more educated and voters of other religions than Catholic or Evangelical (22%, in each). In addition, the candidate also stands out among those surveyed with an average family income of more than 5 times the minimum wage (21%).

Celso Russomano stands out among those with primary education (21%). On the other hand, compared to previous research, the candidate has his intentions fluctuating negatively or decreasing in all segments, with an emphasis on the following strata:

• 16 to 24 years: from 24% to 15%
• Baccalaureate: from 24% to 13%
• Self-declared black / brown: 23% to 13%
• Evangelicals: 28% to 17%
• Average family income of up to 1 minimum wage: 28% to 17%
• Voters who evaluate how to regulate the current municipal administration: from 22% to 13%

Mentions of Márcio França are homogeneous among the surveyed segments.

The percentage of valid votes for each candidate corresponds to the proportion of the candidate’s votes over the total votes, excluding white, invalid and undecided votes. A candidate is elected in the 1st round if he obtains 50% plus one of the valid votes in the official count.

• Bruno Covas (PSDB): 38%
• Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 15%
• Celso Russomanno (Republicans): 15%
• Márcio França (PSB): 12%
• Jilmar Tatto (PT): 7%
• Arthur do Val – Mamãe Fali (Patriot): 6%
• Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 3%
• Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 1%
• Levy Fidelix (PRTB): 1%
• Orlando Silva (PCdoB): 1%
• Marina Helou (Chain): 1%
• Vera Lúcia (PSTU): 0%
• Antonio Carlos Silva (PCO): 0%

The poll also asked who voters would not vote for at all. The percentages were as follows:

• Celso Russomanno: 41%
• Guilherme Boulos: 25%
• Joice Hasselmann: 25%
• Levy Fidelix: 21%
• Jilmar’s Tattoo: 20%
• Bruno Covas: 17%
• Arthur do Val: 16%
• Vera Lúcia: 15%
• Orlando Silva: 14%
• Andrea Matarazzo: 12%
• Antonio Carlos Silva: 11%
• Márcio França: 11%
• Marina Helou: 11%
• Could vote for everyone: 2%
• Don’t know / didn’t answer: 13%

Respondents could indicate more than one answer, so the sum of the mentioned factors is more than 100%.

Ibope also addressed the spontaneous intention to vote, when the voter says who they will vote for without the names of the candidates being presented. See the results:

• Bruno Covas (PSDB): 22%
• Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 10%
• Celso Russomanno (Republicans): 7%
• Márcio França (PSB): 5%
• Arthur do Val (Patriot): 4%
• Jilmar Tatto (PT): 3%
• Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 1%
• Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 1%
• Levy Fidelix (PRTB): 0%
• Marina Helou (Chain): 0%
• Orlando Silva (PCdoB): 0%
• Others: 1%
• White or null: 16%
• Don’t know or prefer not to comment: 29%

Second shift simulations

Ibope also questioned, if there is a second round, who the voters would vote for:

• Bruno Covas 52% X 24% Guilherme Boulos (white / null: 16%; don’t know: 8%)
• Bruno Covas 54% X 22% Celso Russomanno (white / null: 18%; I don’t know: 7%)
• Bruno Covas 47% X 30% Márcio França (white / null: 15%; don’t know: 8%)
• Celso Russomanno 36% X 32% Guilherme Boulos (white / null: 24%; I don’t know: 8%)
• Márcio França 45% X 24% Guilherme Boulos (white / null: 21%; don’t know: 9%)
• Márcio França 45% X 27% Celso Russomanno (blank / null: 19%; don’t know: 9%)

• Margin of error: 3 percentage points more or less;
• Who was heard: 1,204 voters in the city of São Paulo;
• When was the survey conducted: November 7-9, 2020;
• Identification number in the Electoral Tribunal: SP-07164/2020;
• The survey was commissioned by TV Globo and the newspaper “O Estado de S. Paulo”;
• The confidence level used is 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the results reflect the current electoral moment, considering the margin of error.

Electoral surveys: what is a sample, margin of error and level of confidence.

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