Ibope survey in Recife: João Campos, 33%; Marília Arraes, 21%; Mendonça Filho, 17%; Patrícia Patrícia, 12% | 2020 elections in Pernambuco

Claudia Ribeiro (PSTU), Thiago Santos (UP) and Victor Assis (PCO) had less than 1% of voting intentions.

Evolution of candidates

In relation to the previous Ibope survey, published on October 29:

• João Campos went from 31% to 33%
• Marília Arraes went from 18% to 21%
• Mendonça Filho went from 13% to 17%
• Delegate Patricia went from 16% to 12%
• Colonel Feitosa kept 1%
• Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo kept 1%
• Carlos kept 1%
• Charbel went from less than 1% to 1%
• Claudia Ribeiro went from 1% to less than 1%
• Thiago Santos remained below 1%
• Victor Assis was not mentioned before and now has less than 1%
• Blank / null went from 14% to 10%
• I don’t know / did not answer went from 4% to 3%

According to Ibope, in this round, voting intentions in João Campos are more expressive among voters with primary education (45%). Compared to the previous survey, the candidate grows beyond the margin of error in this profile, since it had 37%.

Compared to the previous poll, Marilia Arraes extends her responses among the following strata of voters: other religions (other than Catholic and Evangelical): from 20% to 29%; 16 to 24 years: from 16% to 25%.

Mendonça Filho mentions are more expressive among voters aged 55 and over (26%) and, compared to the previous study, the Democrat grows in segments aged 55 or over: from 17% to 26%; Family income of more than five minimum wages: from 15% to 24% and from 35 to 44 years: 11% to 20%.

Delegate Patricia, on the other hand, falls back in practically all the strata analyzed, but mainly among voters between 45 and 54 years old: it goes from 16% to 8%; family income of more than five minimum wages: 25% to 13%; Evangelicals: from 22% to 13% and family income of more than one to two minimum wages: from 18% to 11%.

The poll also asked who voters would not vote for at all. The percentages were as follows:

• Patrícia Patrícia (Podemos): 40%
• João Campos (PSB): 29%
• Colonel Feitosa (PSC): 28%
• Mendonça Filho (DEM): 24%
• Marília Arraes (PT): 23%
• Charbel (Novo): 17%
• Carlos (PSL): 16%
• Thiago Santos (UP): 16%
• Victor Assis (PCO): 15%
• Claudia Ribeiro (PSTU): 14%
• Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo (PRTB): 13%
• I could vote for everyone (spontaneous response): 1%
• They do not know or prefer not to comment: 5%

• Delegate Patricia (Podemos) went from 20% to 40%
• João Campos (PSB) went from 33% to 29%
• Colonel Feitosa (PSC) remained at 28%
• Mendonça Filho (DEM) went from 30% to 24%
• Marília Arraes (PT) went from 21% to 23%
• Charbel (New) went from 18% to 17%
• Carlos (PSL) went from 18% to 16%
• Thiago Santos (UP) stayed at 16%
• Victor Assis (PCO) went from 14% to 15%
• Claudia Ribeiro (PSTU) kept 14%
• Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo (PRTB) went from 14% to 13%
• Could vote for all (spontaneous response) if it stays at 1%
• Do not know or prefer not to comment if it remains at 5%

To facilitate comparison with the official results released by the Regional Electoral Courts, the Ibope survey shows the percentage of valid votes of the candidates. It corresponds to the proportion of the candidate’s votes over the total votes, excluding blank, invalid and undecided votes. A candidate is elected in the 1st round if he obtains 50% plus one of the valid votes in the official count.

In this section, the poll also brings a comparison between the percentage of valid votes in this poll and the previous ones, published on October 15 and 29. Check the numbers:

• João Campos: had 40% of the valid votes, went to 38% and, again, had 38%
• Marília Arraes: had 17% valid votes, increased to 22% and increased to 24%
• Mendonça Filho: he had 22% of the valid votes, now he has 15% and now 20%
• Patrícia Patrícia: it had 15% of valid votes, it went up to 20% and now it’s down to 13%
• Colonel Feitosa: had 2% valid votes, dropped to 1% and returned to 1%
• Carlos: had 2% valid votes, dropped to 1% and returned to 1%
• Marco Aurélio My friend: had 1% of the valid votes in the three polls
• Charbel: had less than 1% of valid votes in the previous two polls and now, 1%
• Claudia Ribeiro: had 1% in previous searches and now less than 1%
• Thiago Santos: had less than 1% of valid votes in all three polls
• Victor sitting: has not been mentioned in the last two polls and now has less than 1%

Second shift simulations

• Scene 1: João Campos 42% x 34% Marília Arraes. White / null, 23%. Do not know or prefer not to comment, 2%
• Scenario 2: João Campos 48% x 33% Mendonça Filho. White / null, 18%. Do not know or prefer not to comment, 2%
• Scenario 3: João Campos 51% x 27% Patrícia Patrícia. White / null, 20%. Do not know or prefer not to comment, 2%
• Scenario 4: Marília Arraes 41% x 39% Mendonça Filho. White / null, 18%. Do not know or prefer not to comment, 2%
• Scenario 5: Marília Arraes 48% x 29% Patrícia Patrícia. White / null, 20%. Do not know or prefer not to comment, 2%
• Scenario 6: Mendonça Filho 46% x 27% Patrícia Patrícia. White / null, 24%. Do not know or prefer not to comment, 2%

• The survey was commissioned by TV Globo, in partnership with Jornal do Commercio.
• Margin of error: 3 percentage points more or less
• Who Was Heard: 1,001 Recife Voters
• When was the survey conducted: November 7-9
• TRE identification number: PE 07456/2020
• The confidence level used is 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the results reflect the current electoral moment, considering the margin of error.

Electoral polls: what is a sample, margin of error and level of confidence

VIDEOS: see the responses of Recife mayoral candidates on issues relevant to the city