Ibope survey in Recife: João Campos, 31%; Marília Arraes, 18%; Patrícia Patrícia, 16%; Mendonça Filho, 13% | 2020 elections in Pernambuco

Charbel (Novo) and Thiago Santos (UP) had less than 1% of voting intentions. Victor Assis (PCO) was not mentioned in the survey.

Voting intentions in João Campos are more expressive among voters aged 16 to 24 (39%). Compared to the previous survey, the candidate does not show growth beyond the margin of error, however, it is possible to notice a drop in responses in the following profiles: evangelicals: from 35% to 27%; Family income of more than two to five minimum wages: from 32% to 25%.

Compared to the previous poll, Marília Arraes, a PT woman, broadens her responses among the following strata of voters: 35 to 44 years old: from 12% to 23%; self-declared whites: 14% to 23%; primary education: from 8% to 16%.

Delegate Patricia stands out among voters who have a monthly family income of more than five times the minimum wage (25%).

Mendonça Filho, on the other hand, shows declines in practically all the strata analyzed, but mainly among voters: family income of more than five minimum wages: from 26% to 15%; 55 years or more: from 27% to 17%; men: from 22% to 13%; primary education: 20% to 12%; Catholics: from 20% to 13%; 35 to 44 years: 18% to 11%.

Evolution of candidates

In relation to the previous Ibope survey, published on October 15:

• João Campos went from 33% to 31%
• Marília Arraes went from 14% to 18%
• Patrícia Patrícia went from 13% to 16%
• Mendonça Filho went from 18% to 13%
• Claudia Ribeiro kept 1%
• Colonel Feitosa kept 1%
• Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo stayed at 1%
• Carlos kept 1%
• Charbel remained below 1%
• Thiago Santos remained below 1%
• Victor Assis was not cited by those interviewed
• White / null remained at 14%
• Does not know / did not answer went from 3% to 4%

The poll also asked who voters would not vote for at all. The percentages were as follows:

• João Campos (PSB): 33%
• Mendonça Filho (DEM): 30%
• Colonel Feitosa (PSC): 28%
• Marília Arraes (PT): 21%
• Patrícia Patrícia (Podemos): 20%
• Carlos (PSL): 18%
• Charbel (Novo): 18%
• Thiago Santos (UP): 16%
• Claudia Ribeiro (PSTU): 14%
• Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo (PRTB): 14%
• Victor Assis (PCO): 14%
• I could vote for everyone (spontaneous response): 1%
• They do not know or prefer not to comment: 5%

For the first time, the Ibope poll showed the percentage of valid votes for each candidate. It corresponds to the proportion of the candidate’s votes over the total votes, excluding white, invalid and undecided votes. A candidate is elected in the 1st round if he obtains 50% plus one of the valid votes in the official count.

In this section, the poll also brings a comparison between the percentage of valid votes in this poll and the previous one, published on October 15. Check the numbers:

• João Campos: he had 40% of the valid votes; now has 38%
• Marília Arraes: he had 17% of valid votes; now has 22%
• Patrícia Patrícia: he had 15% of the valid votes; now has 20%
• Mendonça Filho: had 22% of valid votes; now has 15%
• Colonel Feitosa: he had 2% valid votes; now has 1%
• Carlos: he had 2% valid votes; now has 1%
• Marco Aurélio My friend: got 1% of valid votes
• Claudia Ribeiro: got 1% of valid votes
• Thiago Santos: was left with less than 1% of valid votes
• Charbel: was left with less than 1% of valid votes
• Victor sitting: was not mentioned by the interviewees in the two surveys

Second shift simulations

• Scene 1: Patrícia Patrícia 38% x 45% João Campos. White / null, 15%. Do not know or prefer not to comment, 1%
• Scenario 2: Patrícia Patrícia 44% x 39% Marília Arraes. White / null, 15%. Do not know or prefer not to comment, 1%
• Scenario 3: Patrícia Patrícia 45% x 33% Mendonça Filho. White / null, 19%. Do not know or prefer not to comment, 2%
• Scenario 4: João Campos 41% x 34% Marília Arraes. White / null, 24%. Do not know or prefer not to comment, 2%
• Scenario 5: João Campos 46% x 32% Mendonça Filho. White / null, 20%. Do not know or prefer not to comment, 5%
• Scenario 6: Marília Arraes 43% x 34% Mendonça Filho. White / null, 21%. Do not know or prefer not to comment, 2%

• The survey was commissioned by TV Globo, in partnership with Jornal do Commercio.
• Margin of error: 3 percentage points more or less
• Who Was Heard: 1,001 Recife City Voters
• When the survey was conducted: October 27-29
• Identification number in TRE-PE: PE – 00353/2020
• The confidence level used is 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the results reflect the current electoral moment, considering the margin of error.

Electoral polls: what is a sample, margin of error and level of confidence

VIDEOS: see the responses of Recife mayoral candidates on issues relevant to the city