Ibope survey for the second shift in São Paulo: Bruno Covas, 48%; Guilherme Boulos, 37% | 2020 elections in São Paulo

• Bruno Covas (PSDB): 48%
• Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 37%
• White / null: 12%
• Don’t know / didn’t answer: 4%

See the results of the previous Ibope survey, published on November 18

In relation to the previous Ibope survey, of November 18:

• Bruno Covas went from 47% to 48%
• Guilherme Boulos went from 35% to 37%
• White and null went from 14% to 12%
• They do not know and did not answer if they stayed at 4%

For the calculation of valid votes, blank votes, invalid votes and voters who declare themselves undecided are excluded from the sample. The procedure is the same that the Electoral Tribunal uses to disclose the official result of the election. To win in the second round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.

• Bruno Covas: 57%
• Guilherme Boulos: 43%

In this round, Bruno Covas stands out among those who consider his current municipal management as positive (excellent / good) (84%) and among voters aged 55 and over (62%). In addition, the candidate stands out in the group of interviewees with a family income greater than 5 minimum wages (55%). Compared to previous polls, candidates’ voting intentions grew among older voters (from 54% to 62%).

References to Guilherme Boulos, on the other hand, continue to be more expressive among those who value current municipal management as bad or very bad (68% of the mentions, 50%). In addition, Boulos stands out in this round among the youngest, from 16 to 24 years old, a segment in which he obtains 50% of the appointments, 37% in the previous survey (growth of 13 percentage points).

The Ibope poll is also intended for a spontaneous vote, without presenting the names of the candidates to the voters:

• Bruno Covas: 39%
• Guilherme Boulos: 29%
• Others: 1%
• Null white: 16%
• Don’t know or prefer not to comment: 15%

The sum of the percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Ibope also asked voters if the decision to vote for the mayor of São Paulo can still change or is already final. See the percentages:

• You can still change: 18%
• It’s final: 80%
• Don’t know / didn’t answer: 1%

Ibope asked, regardless of the intention to vote in this second round, who the voters believe will be the next mayor of São Paulo. See the percentages:

• Bruno Covas: 66%
• Guilherme Boulos: 24%
• Don’t know / didn’t answer: 11%

Description of candidates

During the poll, interviewers presented options for voters to describe their views on candidates Bruno Covas and Guilherme Boulos. See the answers:

• I would definitely vote him for mayor of São Paulo: 31%
• Could you vote for the mayor of São Paulo: 25%
• I wouldn’t vote for him at all for the mayor of São Paulo: 32%
• You don’t know him well enough to give his opinion: 11%
• Don’t know / no answer: 1%

• I would definitely vote for him for mayor of São Paulo: 27%
• Could you vote for the mayor of São Paulo: 15%
• I would not vote him at all for mayor of São Paulo: 30%
• You don’t know him well enough to say: 26%
• Don’t know / no answer: 1%

• Margin of error: 3 percentage points more or less;
• Who was heard: 1,001 voters from the city of São Paulo;
• When the survey was conducted: between November 23 and 25, 2020;
• Identification number in the Electoral Tribunal: SP-09681/2020
• The survey was commissioned by TV Globo and the newspaper “O Estado de S. Paulo”;
• The confidence level used is 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the results reflect the current electoral moment, considering the margin of error.

Electoral surveys: what is a sample, margin of error and level of confidence.

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