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Hitting the six dozen Mega da Virada is no easy task. In a single bet, when the player chooses only six dozen, the probability of having chosen the set drawn from the 60 available numbers is one in more than 50 million combinations.
To increase the possibilities, it is possible to choose more numbers for the same bet, but this costs more than R $ 4.50 for a single ticket.
There are also those who use superstition when it comes to playing, such as choosing a specific lottery house, the usual numbers, dates of birth or even playing with dozens that have more historically come out.
However, mathematicians say that, statistically, it doesn’t matter.
On the 31st, Mega da Virada promises to pay a prize of at least R $ 300 million. Experts heard by Twitter They claim that choosing six or 15 tens, the maximum allowed by la Caixa, depends more on how much of the standard of play the player is looking for and how much they are willing to spend.
“The human being finds a pattern in everything, not in vain, when we look at the sky, we see clouds in the shape of faces, animals, etc. This is more tied to what we are trying to find. the bets have exactly the same chances of getting out ”, says Régis Varão, professor of mathematics at Unicamp (State University of Campinas).
Even so, according to him, playing more games or having a game with dozens more are measures of equal effect and Caixa makes sure that no bettor is more favored than another.
The possibilities are the same making a single bet with seven numbers for R $ 31.50 or placing seven individual bets [com seis dezenas cada uma] spending the same R $ 31.50 [R$ 4,50 cada uma]. The reasoning applies to all available options.
Régis Varão, professor of mathematics at Unicamp
By placing a bet with as many numbers as possible (15), you will spend approximately 5,000 times more than with a single bet. When you pay more, your chances of getting it right are one in about 10,000, not more than 50 million.
For Marinho Gomes de Andrade Filho, professor of mathematics at the ICMC (Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Informatics) of the USP (University of São Paulo), the probabilities of the numbers are the same, from the simple bet to 15 tens.
“All the numbers have the same probability of occurring. Nothing ensures that one or the other ten has greater possibilities. It depends on the choice of the bettor,” says Marinho.
Ties increase the chances; playing in different lotteries, no
It is common for Mega da Virada bets to be made in pots, either in the family or at work. According to the mathematics, the probabilities of the jackets increase according to the distinction of numbers and the different cards.
“The prizes actually increase the chances of winning. But, as everything in life has a price, you increase your chances, but on the other hand you will share the prize with more people. The R $ 300 million can be shared with a lot people and there is still a lot of money left, so we can say that it is a better strategy than playing alone, ”says Varão.
However, mathematicians claim that specific betting strategies, such as choosing different lotteries or using numbers with more outs in the Mega-Sena, have no effect at the time of the draw.
“It does not matter to play in another lottery house. The bettor can go to the closest or the furthest, but the possibilities will be the same. As well as the dozens with more exits have the same possibilities,” says the professor from Unicamp.
Marinho confirms the statement. “The house of the lottery does not influence the game. From the field to the capital, the possibilities are similar. There is also no difference between numbers that have already come out with a draw that will take place.”
According to Caixa, the bettor can win a pot of two to one hundred shares. Each payment can cost at least R $ 5. At Mega-Sena, jackets cost at least R $ 10.
