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The holidays (Christmas and New Years) and the summer holidays will have a greater impact on deaths caused by the new coronavirus than the start of the pandemic in March. Experts heard by Twitter they anticipate a peak as a result of meetings and crowds in the final stretch of 2020 and early next year.
The analysis is based on São Paulo, a state with a number of restrictions at the end of the year. On Sunday, the social isolation rate was 49%, according to the balance of this Monday (28). The following day, the index fell to 42%.
This Tuesday (29), Brazil once again registered more than a thousand deaths in 24 hours from covid-19. There were 1,075, the highest number since September 15.
Anhembi Field Hospital, managed by IABAS
Image: Talyta Vespa / UOL
As of Sunday, the state had returned to the red phase, with strict restrictions to prevent the spread of the disease – releasing only essential services, such as markets and pharmacies, and closing of commerce in general. However, even with the closure of the trade, the beaches of the São Paulo coast were filled with tourists during Christmas and the weekend. However, from Monday to Thursday, the state returned to the yellow phase, with less severe restrictions.
For the experts heard by Twitter, the isolation rate reported by the João Doria government (PSDB) is questionable and insufficient to prevent large-scale contamination. The forecast is for an immediate increase over the next 15 days.
“The prospects for January are very bad,” says Paulo. Lotufo, professor of epidemiology at the University of São Paulo. The explanation lies precisely in trips to the beaches, for example. Those who leave the capital run the risk of carrying the virus mainly to those who work in tourist spots, such as kiosks.
In theory, being on the beach is not exactly the problem. If the presence of a large number of people were residents of the town, with respect to social distance, the issue would not be so serious, says the expert. The main point is to involve tourist traffic.
“What happens with the beaches of São Paulo is that those who come from the capital by car go to the market, the bar, the bakery and everything is full. A lot of crowds in buildings, condominiums … That is the problem” .
The impact will be felt, at first, in the coastal cities. “The mayors pretend not to know: the workers who live in the cities are going to be contaminated. Then, in a while, they are going to have a very large number of infected, sick, by all this flow of tourists, “he explains. Lotufo.
For the teacher, we are on the verge of a more complicated process than the beginning of the pandemic. This is due to the fact that all cities increase cases and deaths simultaneously. In March, according to the analysis of Lotufo, the proliferation was gradual and part of the municipalities took precautions against the first cases.
“Now you have [coronavírus] across the country. So what happens is that we have relaxation, more infections and cases in all places at the same time, “he says.” How about starting in the state in the capital, going to Grande SP, then to the countryside is not happening? It will increase throughout the state “
OR Twitter contacted the Secretariat of Health and the Secretariat of Regional Development of São Paulo to ask for details on how to combat the pandemic in the summer. However, the two portfolios did not respond to the request for interviews.
The press office of the Secretariat for Regional Development sent a video of the secretary, Marco Vinholi, reaffirming his entry into the red phase. It also notes that the state notified the Public Ministry about the 12 cities that did not respect the decision.
‘We will stretch the pandemic in Brazil’
On Tuesday, the state of São Paulo registered 1,328 new hospitalizations due to coronavirus, with 61.4% of the ICUs (Intensive Care Units) and 43.8% of the wards.
Neuroscientist Miguel Nicolelis, a professor at Duke University in the United States, considers “doubtful” the percentage of 49% of social isolation in SP that the Doria government presents.
“I don’t think it’s real,” he says, when told about the tax. Even so, define below what is necessary to prevent the spread of the disease. Use the end of the year holidays as an example.
We have a time bomb for 2021. The holidays [Natal e Ano Novo] are happening, we have capacity on the beaches, in shopping centers, in airports. It will be a repeat of what we saw on Thanksgiving Day in the United States “
The American tradition, which occurred on November 26, caused a dizzying increase in deaths and cases of Covid-19. Between December 3 and 10, 15,966 people died and 1.4 million received a positive diagnosis of the disease. He considers it “not entirely impossible” for Brazil to reach 100,000 cases a day “in the worst case.”
Projecting the end of the pandemic, then, is even more difficult. Nicolelis criticizes the state of São Paulo for not having carried out a confinement at any time. “São Paulo only has advertising, it does not have the data to corroborate the gargling that the crisis was handling,” he considers. “The state only returned to the high-risk phase after the second round [das eleições], when the members of the commission alerted the government that it was necessary to return earlier, “amendment.
For him, people have lost the notion of the impact of the disease, without understanding “what it is to lose 200 thousand people.” “In the short term, we are going to extend the pandemic in Brazil throughout 2021 and it could reach 2022,” he says.
“Nobody realized that 200 thousand deaths could turn into 500 thousand. It is not stupid to imagine that this number could double in 12 months,” says the neuroscientist.
