[ad_1]
The economy ministry raised the federal government’s primary spending estimate to 349.4 billion reais this year with actions to combat Covid-19 and estimated that the public sector will close 2020 with a record fiscal deficit that could lead to public debt up to 93.1% of GDP.
Commenting on the data, Special Finance Secretary Waldery Rodrigues stressed on Friday that spending may still increase further, with the inclusion of new beneficiaries in the emergency aid program, among other factors.
The latest estimate released by the ministry for the primary impact of the actions for Covid-19, a respiratory disease caused by the new coronavirus, was 285 billion reais.
The new figure included expenditures of R $ 15.9 billion for a new program to support micro and small businesses approved by Congress, an estimate of an increase from R $ 20 billion to R $ 60 billion in aid paid to states and municipalities. compared to the previous projection, and an increase of approximately 28 billion reais in the payment of emergency aid to the vulnerable population.
Waldery said Friday that emergency aid could be further expanded, with the addition of people who are not currently considered eligible.
“There may be new beneficiaries, eligible segments, because we are dealing with millions of Brazilians who do not have, in some cases, even the fully defined registration problem. This is not now, it came years ago, there is a layer of the population that it is invisible to decision makers in the public sector, “he said at a virtual press conference.
Waldery presented five scenarios for the fiscal accounts, according to different projections for the GDP retraction. The estimate of the primary deficit varies from 7.8% (with a decrease of 1.34% of GDP) to 8.7% (a decrease of 5.34% of GDP).
In the scenario that takes into account the most recent estimate of the market for GDP, which fell 3.34%, the primary deficit is estimated at 601.2 billion reais (8.27% of GDP).
In a virtual press conference, Waldery emphasized, however, that the economists’ projection for the activity should be revised in the coming days, amid a scenario of great uncertainties, and that the official projections of the ministry that guide the budget programming They will be released in about two weeks.
The nominal deficit, which also includes interest expenses, varies from 12.7% of GDP to 13.8% of GDP, depending on the output scenario, which brings public debt to the range of 88.6% of GDP at 93, 1% of GDP. In all cases, the expected deficits would be record.
