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40 days before the US election, the race to decide who will occupy the White House for the next four years is getting tighter. Although the Democratic nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, appears with a seven percentage point advantage nationally, according to the average poll on the Real Clear Politics website, President Donald Trump’s gap narrows when analyzing the data. of the states considered key to win on November 3.
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According to a Reuters poll with the Ipsos Institute released on Friday, the two candidates appear almost side by side in six key states to decide the election: Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. As in the United States the election is indirect, decided by the Electoral College, where each federative unit has a determined weight in the election, it is important that each candidate conquer as many states as possible to win the vote. Some have historically become electoral corrals for the Democratic Party, others for the Republican. However, there is a group that generally varies the vote in each election: they are called states of oscillation. This is the case for these six states mentioned.
In two of them, North Carolina and Florida, Biden and Trump are tied. In the other four, this difference varies from one to five percentage points, but still within the margin of error.
Comfortable Biden
In 2016, the Republican won in these six states. Vinicius Vieira, professor of International Relations at FGV and FAAP, explains that this was due to the profile of voters in these regions.
– In Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, low-educated whites voted in droves for Trump. It is the population that has lost the most with globalization in relative terms, because it does not have investments in the financial market, it does not send its children to large universities, and it was seen as unfair by the affirmative actions and identity policies of the Democrats .
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He points out that, this year, the Democratic Party learned its lesson from the past elections, and therefore the Biden campaign has invested to win back that voter.
– Research already shows that the former vice president has gained traction among white women with no higher education. Already in Florida and Arizona, there are a large number of Latinos, who are a minority more likely to vote for Republicans due to conservative and religious values - explains the professor, who also points out that North Carolina has a racial division among whites. and the black community, to which Biden has great appeal.
To try to attract the Latino vote, mainly in Florida, billionaire Mike Bloomberg announced yesterday that he has invested 40 million dollars in television ads in favor of Biden.
For Carlos Gustavo Poggio, professor of International Relations at the FAAP, despite the tight scenario between the two candidates, Biden continues to take the lead based on what happened in the past elections:
– Historically, compared to previous elections, no American president has managed to get reelected with the numbers that Trump has today. Biden’s situation, despite the tightening in key states, is quite comfortable at this point in the campaign, 40 days before the election. She is better than Hillary Clinton in that same period in 2016.
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According to the Real Clear Politics website, the president appears with 42.9% in the average of national polls, while his opponent has 49.6%. In the average of these six key states, the margin falls to 3.5 percentage points, with the Republican with 45% of the voting intentions and the Democrat with 48.5%. In the estimate of the Electoral College count, carried out by the Cook Political Report, on which the New York Times is based, the former vice president also appears in a more comfortable position than the president: the states more inclined to vote for the Democrat They currently have 218 votes, while those expected to vote for the Republican, 125. However, the two are far from having a minimum of 270 votes to be elected.
Judging the influences of death
The interviews were conducted between September 11 and 16 (and in the case of Arizona until September 17) and, therefore, do not measure the impact of the death of progressive judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a factor that can affect the intentions of vote until election day. According to Poggio, the death of the magistrate can even mean a victory for Trump by giving him the opportunity to indicate a conservative name for the vacancy that is opening in the United States Supreme Court, where the dispute can arrive. However, teachers reflect that this could also serve as a stimulus for Democrats to go to the polls to vote for Biden in order to avoid a new term for the president and, consequently, new appointments of judges.
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Voting debates begin next week, when Trump and Biden meet for the first time on stage in this dispute. With the meetings, the Democratic Party will have to leave behind the strategy it has adopted thus far of avoiding exposure of its candidate to direct the focus of the campaign against Trump. Biden has held few election events, especially compared to his opponent’s racing schedule. That, on the other hand, ammunition for the president’s attacks. On a trip to Atlanta on Friday, Trump mocked the Democrat and criticized him for holding too few demonstrations.
– This guy never leaves. It’s terrible, isn’t it? – he told voters, before traveling to another event in Georgia.
