For the first time since April, the country registers less than 20,000 deaths from Covid-19 in a month, state health secretariats indicate | Coronavirus

“The number [de mortes] below 20 thousand means that the epidemic is really slowing down, which is what you would expect. So the trend is towards reduction ”, says epidemiologist Pedro Hallal, from the Federal University of Pelotas (UFPel).

The drop seen in October comes after the second month with fewer than 30,000 deaths from Covid-19. The record of deaths on Brazilian soil was seen in July, when 32,912 people lost their lives due to the disease caused by the new coronavirus (Sars-CoV-2).

This month’s data was calculated by subtracting the total deaths on September 30 (143,886) from the total deaths as of October 31, which was 159,902 as of 8 p.m. The figures for the previous months were determined with the same methodology. (See more at the end of the story).

On Tuesday (3), for the first time in six weeks, the transmission rate of the new coronavirus in Brazil was higher than 1, according to Imperial College London. The index, symbolized by Rt, was 1.01 – which means that every 100 infected people transmit the disease to 101 others. This means, in practice, an advance in the spread of the disease.

Depending on the British tracking margin of error, the transmission rate in the country may be higher (Rt up to 1.09) or lower (Rt up to 0.92). In these scenarios, every 100 people with the virus would infect 109 or 92 more, respectively.

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For Pedro Hallal, from UFPel, despite the drop in the number of deaths, having the R above 1 again is concerning.

“R above 1 means that all this progress that we have achieved so far can be lost if R continues to grow, because then we will increase the number of deaths, unfortunately, in a short time,” he evaluates.

As it is an average for the whole country, however, Rt can camouflage regional situations.

The latest bulletin for monitoring cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), published by Fiocruz on Friday (6), shows that the national trend continues to fall in the number of cases, But the situation is quite different between the regions of the country:

• In 3 capitals (Florianópolis, João Pessoa and Maceió) there are strong sign of long-term case growth. The sign has appeared in the capital of Santa Catarina for at least 6 weeks, and for 5 and 4 weeks in the capitals of Paraíba and Alagoas, respectively.
• In addition to the uptrend in Florianópolis, Santa Catarina has 4 of the 7 health macroregions with signs of growth long-term.
• In other 6 capitals, there is a moderate sign of growth in the number of long-term cases: Belém, Fortaleza, Macapá, Natal, Salvador and São Luís.
• For São Paulo and Porto Alegre, the recommendation is caution, with an interruption of the downward trend in São Paulo. Introduced the capital of Rio Grande do Sul moderate sign of long-term decline after an interruption.
• In Manaus, there was a sign of long-term stability, with a plateau of cases less than the peak but greater than the month of July.

SARS can be caused by various respiratory viruses, but this year, about 98% of cases of the syndrome have been caused by Sars-CoV-2, according to Fiocruz. Therefore, the data helps to understand the scenario despite the delay in the confirmation of diagnostic tests, for example.

Northern hemisphere records

Worldwide, daily case records have been broken 9 times, according to data from the World Health Organization (WHO). The organization made an alert for the arrival of the second wave of the pandemic.

“ICUs are reaching their capacity [máxima] in some places, especially in Europe and North America ”, warned CEO Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

The media consortium launched the joint survey in early June. For this reason, the monthly data from February to May are for exclusive surveys of the G1. However, the source of both monitoring is the same: state health departments.

Another observation about the data is that, on July 28, the Ministry of Health changed the methodology to identify Covid cases and began to allow imaging (tomography) diagnoses to be reported. It also expanded the definitions of clinical cases (those identified only in the medical consultation) and included more possibilities for Covid tests.

Since the change, more than 1,000 cases of Covid-19 have been reported by state health departments to the federal government under the new criteria.

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