first capital of Brazil in lockdown with broken routes and heavy traffic

Feiras lotadas. Agglomerações nas ruas. Heavy traffic. As dinners seen the last days in some parts of São Luís are not são or what would be expected from the first capital of the country to enter the lockdown.

In order to avoid or collapse the local health system, I went to the occupation of intensive treatment units of the state atingiu 100% non-end of April, to Justiça determined that in the city and other three municipalities of its metropolitan region adotassem in the last Terça-Feira ( 5/5), for ten days, more rigid measures to reduce the spread of the coronavirus.

Among them, for the purpose of circulation of private vehicles, not to buy food or medical care, at the entrance and exit of vehicles of the year or date of any commercial essential.

However, the monitoring data given in São Luís shows that, despite the fact that more people have ended up at home, there are still not enough to control the epidemic in Spain, with 3,745 registered cases, 5,909 confirmed cases not Maranhão até a last fifth-feira, second to Saúde State Secretary.

In addition to the isolation, it was 55.4% on the first day of the lockdown and fell from then on, for 54.1% on the second day and for 53% on the third, according to the company In Loco, which created a based index given geolocation of 60 milhões de cell phones of the country.

Isso mais do that a 47.1% average that registered on days uteis the week immediately preceding. São Luís also fights for the first time on weekdays, a level of isolation that it only managed to obtain on Sundays and holidays.

In addition, the first two days of lockdown will not be remembered by the registered officials of the capital of Maranha since the state government decreed the first measures of isolation in March 21. Since then, I have had seven days with sweet rates, between 55.8% and 57.6%.

This is not enough to control the epidemic, say or epidemiologist Antonio Augusto Moura da Silva, professor at the Department of Public Health of the Federal University of Maranhão (UFMA).

“Qualquer was a ganho, a lot more than people wanted. It was not ideal,” said Silva.

An epidemiologist explains that the rate of being close to 70% is due to the fact that the number of new cases stops growing and begins to fall.

It is because a taxa of contagion, which points out how many people someone who is contaminated can infect, was 3 years old and did not start the pandemic, not Maranhão, according to a study by Imperial College London.

In order for the number of new cases to fall, it is necessary that this tax be less than 1. No case in Maranha, isso means that taxa should be reduced in more than two terms, and, in order to achieve this, a reduction social contact must be made in the same proportion. In other words, or the regulation must be 70% or more, says Silva.

Or virologist Anderson Brito, from the department of epidemiology of the Escola de Saúde Pública da Universidade de Yale, in the United States, suggests that a study carried out by the University of Sydney, in Austria, went to or found two numbers cited by Silva.

This investigation calculated the impact of the regulation on the local epidemic and indicated that, for the prevalence, it was necessary to start a country, an increase of 80% would be necessary.

“Saved as they are different between Brazil and Austria, that is or Patamar who support us with scientific evidence. Então, São Luís would need one more master to stop eliminating transmission chains,” says Brito.

To BBC News Brazil, the municipal and state secretaries of Saúde were asked to comment on the results of the lockdown, but they did not respond to the publication of this report.

Uneven Isolation

Fernando Spilki, president of the Brazilian Society of Virology (SBV), says that the São Luís indices as a lockdown are only “vitória”, because they have some effect.

More the assessment that they are insufficient, because scientific literature points out that it is now that it is necessary to have at least 70% isolation.

“That difference of 15% between what the city achieved and the ideal may seem small, but it has a little impact because we deal with a highly contagious pathogen.”

The virologist also explains that, as a general medicine doctor, it is also necessary to analyze how it is different in different parts of the city.

In São Luís, as regiões centris ficaram mais vazias e as peripherías, lotas. If there is an unequal relationship between different regions of the city, it is possible to compromise or make an effort to make a lockdown.

“Or lockdown was shown to be a quite adequate strategy and perhaps it will be the only one that is completely effective to avoid dissemination of the leaflet virus, but only a part of the population isolates itself, or virus continues to circulate and breed outbreaks of infection,” says Spilki.

The weight of these regions where the virus or coronavirus continues to be transmitted will go to other areas and will lead to doença with them, making it appear that there are new waves of contagion after some time.

Anderson Brito said that two previous dinners can be made with a lockdown, but there will be no release in the masses of the population.

“Isso is raised to the feeling that something is being wrong, but it is not working. It is only going to work if you are heavy,” he said, or a virologist.

Além disso, he explains, is also the way to know whether or not the lockdown will provide the expected result, because a person infected with novo coronavirus has been tied for 14 days for three symptoms and has been hospitalized for 18 days in the medium.

Then, it will only be possible to see the results of two new levels of isolation on the rates of cases, deaths and occupation of laws that are three to four weeks or less weeks.

“For that reason, it is not only necessary to count on the population, but also on the confidence that the population is giving certain,” says Brito.

Social vulnerability

The epidemiologist Antonio Augusto Moura da Silva said that there are two major obstacles to the highest levels of isolation and the social vulnerability of the population of Maranhão.

The State has the highest proportion of people living in a situation of poverty, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE): 54.1%, two 6.8 milhões de maranhenses live with less than R $ 406 per month.

Além disso, o Maranhão tem o maior percentual do pabalhadores informais – são 64.9% two employed workers, second dice of 2018.

“People have never been suspicious that people will not be able to keep everyone at home. Not because people are not willing to add. But because it is difficult for them to do it because they need to leave home every day to earn money or lockdown, third what to expand or program of government of emergency aid to reach or greater number of possible people. It is a thing or other, it is for the promotion, “says Silva.

This is the case of 51-year-old Maria Barros, a domestic worker. She is at the moment of working and spending all of her last previous salary to remove or some of the supplies to supply the pantry.

Your film is also not getting work as a stone and the person knows that they are going to get some money to spend or more than ever.

Help is in this situation. She was on an experience regimen at the house where she worked and was not in the Assyrian cart. For this reason, there is no guarantee that you will receive or next salary.

“I want to sign at home, but I don’t want to pay, I don’t have to pay. I need to enter hair less R $ 100 to buy food.”