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The first wave of new coronavirus infections is not yet over in the United States, but experts warn that a second wave will hit the country if the return to normal is too fast or if it occurs from May, as the administration expects. from Donald Trump.
The debate is similar to what happened in Europe, where the Spanish government today authorized the partial resumption of work, while the French president, Emmanuel Macron, announced the extension of the mandatory quarantine until after Wednesday.
The big difference is that the US federal system is highly decentralized and gives full powers to the governors of its 50 states, even if the president decides to coordinate a national strategy.
So far, Trump has only issued recommendations for social distance and teleworking until the end of April.
Trump said he had “full authority” to resume activity in the states, but anticipated that “a decision on my part, along with the governors and the advice of others will be made soon!”
Two groups of governors from the eastern United States (including New York) and the western (including California) did not wait: they announced Monday that they will coordinate to lift the restrictions. But there is no evidence that dozens of other governors do the same.
After half a million cases identified, the number of infected people in the country seems to stabilize. But for the director of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), Robert Redfield, this should not lead to a suspension of the rules on social distance and remote work from one hour to the next.
“The reopening will be a gradual, data-driven process,” he told NBC TV this morning.
The new coronavirus will not have disappeared after the end of labor. The vast majority of the population will remain infected until a vaccine is developed.
The goal of the first phase was to prevent many people from getting sick at the same time and preventing hospitals from becoming congested. But the virus will continue to circulate.
In the northern summer, the proportion of infected Americans could be 2% to 5%, Scott Cottlieb, former director of the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and informal adviser to Donald Trump, told CBS on Sunday.
“Wake up, up to 50% of this country will become infected!” Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research at the University of Minnesota, warned today on the MSNBC television network.
Officials plan to slowly return to normal, while monitoring a possible resumption of the epidemic. Academic and expert projects on how to get to this stage are plentiful, but the White House has yet to formulate any.
The President of the United States, Donald Trump, during a press conference at the White House on Monday (13) – Photo: Reuters / Leah Millis
US President Donald Trump even seemed annoyed by the statements of a scientist who became a celebrity during the pandemic, Anthony Fauci, director of the United States Institute of Infectious Diseases and a member of the crisis cell of the presidency on the new coronavirus. .
The investigator noted on television that the number of deaths could have been lower if the country had reacted quickly. Trump, defensively, shared a message yesterday with the hashtag #FireFauci.
The White House, however, today classified the rumors about Fauci’s departure as “ridiculous.” “Dr. Fauci was and remains a trusted adviser to President Trump,” said spokesman Hogan Gidley.
All the experts’ indications indicate that more tests should be done and that there should be more ways to track positive cases and their contacts, and that hospitals should have more beds.
Johns Hopkins University scientists estimate the country will need 100,000 “case trackers,” paid or volunteer.
“If we open the country on May 1, there will certainly be an increase” in cases of the disease, warned CBS Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Assessment and Measurement at Washington State University. Perhaps some states can start in mid-May. Others, no, he noted.
Gottlieb imagines that governors and mayors will be able to authorize companies to resume activities with half their employees or continue to confine those over 65 years of age.
Andrew Cuomo said New York would gradually expand the list of essential jobs when the time came.
No matter what happens, there won’t be a morning when the newspapers announce: ‘Hallelujah! It’s over, ” he said, asking his voters to accept the idea that the virus will live with the population for a long time, even if it’s controlled, until a vaccine is available.
As for the evidence, former CDC chief Tom Frieden says many are “junk” and that it will take time to figure out which ones are good.