[ad_1]
The indicators of cases and deaths from Covid-19 in Espírito Santo show a fall in the epidemic curve of the disease, but the rate of reduction is slow. At least two factors have contributed to this slowness, which is reflected in a time that still extends to the high level at which the State is infected and dead. It takes about two more months for the average number of deaths to drop below one case per day.
One of the components that favors the slower decline is the time difference of the epidemic in the state. Although Greater Vitória is already experiencing a constant decrease in indicators, there are municipalities outside the Metropolitan Region that continue to increase and at an accelerated rate.
“The interior curve is different, although the population is more or less the same size as Gran Vitória. When we look at the case and the death curve in the interior, it is lower and more elongated because there are several regions that have cities with different times epidemics and, when everything adds up, the curve becomes longer. Grande Vitória works as if it were a single city “, explains Professor Etereldes Gonçalves Junior, from the Department of Mathematics of the Federal University of Espírito Santo (Ufes) and a member of the Interinstitutional Center for Epidemiological Studies (NIEE).
GREATER EXPOSURE
Simultaneously with this temporary difference in the epidemic, Espírito Santo is experiencing a time of greater flexibility in activities and, therefore, more people exposed to the risk of contagion by the coronavirus.
“The regional factor does not explain everything. If you look at the Grande Vitória curve, it also falls slower than due to the greater exposure of the population ”, Etereldes points out.
Thus, the professor points out, although there are more activities released, measures such as social distancing, the use of masks and constant hand hygiene should not be neglected because the pandemic has not ended and the risk of contamination remains in all municipalities of the state.
Asked how Espírito Santo should reach the end of the year in this pandemic context, Etereldes estimates that the moving average of deaths, in an interval of 14 days, will take about two months to register less than one death per day. The moving average, which today stands at 17.29 and peaked at 37.07 in June, is an assessment that shows the behavioral trend of Covid-19 amid strong overnight swings.
“Maintaining the average rate of descent registered so far, we would need another 54 days approximately to have the moving average of deaths below 1, that is, to have less than 14 deaths in two weeks”, calculates the professor. With a more favorable scenario, Gran Vitória alone may have this same death rate in a shorter period, Etereldes points out, most likely late September.
