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© Reuters.
By Ana Carolina Siedschlag
Investing.com – After the congressional elections and the parliamentary recess that kept the legislative agenda for almost two months, the focus of the two houses in the coming weeks should be the discussion around emergency aid, which could be expanded in other than 2020, analysts told the Investing.com.
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This Monday (1), the candidates supported by Planalto, Arthur Lira (PP-AL) and Rodrigo Pacheco (DEM-MG), won the disputes for the presidencies of the Chamber and Senate, respectively, both in the first round and in both citing, in speeches of possession, an extension of the benefit.
For Alex Lima, head of investments at Lifetime, the latent handover of the market on Tuesday (2), despite being justified by the end of uncertainties such as a possible impeachment against President Jair Bolsonaro, is fragile and depends on the articulation of Congress with the Ministry of Economy.
“If they condition expenses and respect the ceiling, the help could be a respite. But the market has very little patience and prices can easily go back to where they were last week if things don’t move quickly, ”he says.
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For him, the election in the first round, mainly of Lira, was an extra point that justifies the positive reaction of the Brazilian assets. Around 4:30 pm, the index rose 0.3%, with a maximum of 119,805 points, while it fell 2.27%, to R $ 5,362, taking the interest curve as a whole.
The order of things
For Thiago Vidal, political analyst at Prospectiva, despite the fact that the government has gained some momentum with the victory of the candidates supported by Planalto, Lira could bring some headache to the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes.
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According to him, although the new leader of the Chamber has a lower ideological density than that of the former president, Rodrigo Maia, he tends to lean towards agendas with a more local, or developmental approach, that would go head-to-head. with the economic portfolio.
“The emergency aid will happen, the question is the format, the ‘how, and not the’ if ‘. Continuing with the current format is unlikely because it is expensive and irrational, but the question is whether this will translate into a higher fixed minimum income policy in the future, “he says.
Between April and December 2020, emergency aid payments totaled R $ 293.1 billion, according to data from the National Treasury, distributed to at least 68 million people in September. In the last month, northern states such as Amazonas and Pará, some of the worst affected by the pandemic in the country, created state extension programs for the benefit.
And then?
However, analysts note that, before discussing the aid itself, Congress should focus on the remaining 2020 issues, such as the emergency PEC, which would allow room for a possible continuation of payments.
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Yesterday, in an interview with CNN Brazil after the victory, Lira placed, in addition to the PEC, the approval of the 2021 budget, administrative reform and tax reform on the Chamber’s list of priorities for this year, all with relevance. impacts for the horizon of the country’s public accounts.
For André Perfeito, Necton’s chief economist, however, the articulation of these guidelines, already delayed due to the pandemic, will have to run against time before the change of semester.
“If they cannot move forward, we will enter the pre-electoral period, and then bills such as regulatory frameworks or other reforms can be left behind,” he says.
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