Datafolha survey in São Paulo: Russomanno, 27%; Covas, 21%; Boulos, 12%; France, 8% | 2020 elections in São Paulo

• Celso Russomanno (Republicans): 27%
• Bruno Covas (PSDB): 21%
• Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 12%
• Márcio França (PSB): 8%
• Arthur do Val – Mamãe Fali (Patriot): 3%
• Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 2%
• Levy Fidelix (PRTB): 2%
• Antonio Carlos Silva (PCO): 1%
• Jilmar Tatto (PT): 1%
• Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 1%
• Marina Helou (Chain): 1%
• Orlando Silva (PCdoB): 1%
• Filipe Sabará (New): 1%.
• Vera Lúcia (PSTU): 1%
• None / blank / null: 12%
• Don’t know / No answer: 4%

• Russomanno went from 29% to 27%
• Covas went from 20% to 21%
• Boulos went from 9% to 12%
• France remained at 8%
• Arthur do Val went from 2% to 3%
• Matarazzo stayed at 2%
• Levy Fidelix went from 1% to 2%
• Antônio Carlos went from 0% to 1%
• Jilmar Tatto went from 2% to 1%
• Joice Hasselmann kept 1%
• Marina Helou kept 1%
• Orlando Silva stayed at 1%
• Sabará stayed at 1%
• Vera went from 2% to 1%
• The undecided stayed at 4% and the white or null went from 17% to 12%

According to Datafolha, Russomanno has a greater advantage among young people aged 16 to 24, a segment in which they reach 35% of voting intentions, followed by Boulos (17%), Bruno Covas (14%) and Arthur do Val ( 10%). In the next group, aged 25 to 34, the Republican deputy is elected by 26%, with Boulos (19%) and Covas (16%) in sequence. In the 45-59 age bracket, Russomanno and the current mayor are tied (25% and 22%, respectively).

Among men, Russomanno has an advantage of 12 points over Covas (29% against 17%), and in the female participation there is a tie (26% and 25%, respectively). Boulos has 12% in both segments.

The Republican candidate appears ahead among voters who have attended primary school (36%, against 23% in Covas, 8% in France and 3% in Boulos), and his advantage decreases as voter education advances. In the segment that studied up to higher education, Boulos (26%) and Covas (22%) are the best placed, followed by Russomanno (16) and France (8%).

Russomanno also has an above-average preference among the poorest, with a family income of up to 2 minimum wages, in which it has 34% of voting intentions, compared to 18% in Covas, 8% in France and 5% in Boulos. In the richest segment, with a family income of more than 10 salaries, Covas (25%) and the representative of the PSOL (25%) lead, followed by Russomanno (14%) and France (13%).

Evangelicals give Russomanno an advantage, with 39% of voters in the segment declaring their vote for the deputy, compared to 23% who would vote in Covas; the rest are below 10%. Among Catholics, Russomanno and Covas are the best placed (27% and 24%, respectively), followed by France (10%) and Boulos (8%).

The poll also asked who voters would not vote for at all. The percentages were as follows:

• Bruno Covas: 31%
• Joice Hasselmann: 31%
• Levy Fidelix: 30%
• Celso Russomanno: 29%
• Guilherme Boulos: 23%
• Jilmar’s Tattoo: 21%
• Vera Lúcia: 20%
• Filipe Sabará: 20%
• Arthur do Val: 19%
• Orlando Silva: 19%
• Marina Helou: 16%
• Andrea Matarazzo: 16%
• Márcio França: 15%
• Antonio Carlos Silva: 15%
• Reject all / would not vote for none: 5%
• Would vote for any / reject none: 2%
• Don’t know: 7%

Respondents could indicate more than one answer, so the sum of the mentioned factors is more than 100%.

Datafolha also addressed spontaneous intention to vote, when the voter says who they will vote for without the names of the candidates being presented. See the results:

• Bruno Covas (PSDB): 10%
• Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 10%
• Celso Russomanno (Republicans): 7%
• Márcio França (PSB): 3%
• Arthur do Val (Patriot): 2%
• Levy Fidelix (PRTB): 1%
• Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 1%
• PT candidate: 1%
• Others: 4%
• Will not vote / will not vote / justify: 1%
• White / null / none: 11%
• Don’t know: 49%

Second shift simulations

Datafolha also questioned if the second round of the mayoral election was today and the dispute was only between Bruno Covas and Celso Russomanno for whom voters would vote:

• Celso Russomanno 46% x 40% Bruno Covas (white / null: 13%; don’t know: 2%)

• The survey was commissioned by TV Globo and the newspaper “Folha de S. Paulo”.
• Margin of error: 3 percentage points more or less
• Who was heard: 1,092 voters in the city of São Paulo aged 16 or over.
• When was the survey conducted: October 5 and 6.
• Identification number in the Electoral Tribunal: SP-08428/2020.
• The confidence level used is 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the results reflect the current electoral moment, considering the margin of error.

Electoral surveys: what is a sample, margin of error and level of confidence.

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