Datafolha Survey in São Paulo: Covas, 28%; Russomanno, 16%; Boulos, 14%; France, 13% | 2020 elections in São Paulo

• Bruno Covas (PSDB): 28%
• Celso Russomanno (Republicans): 16%
• Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 14%
• Márcio França (PSB): 13%
• Jilmar Tatto (PT): 6%
• Arthur do Val – Mamãe Fali (Patriot): 4%
• Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 3%
• Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 3%
• Levy Fidelix (PRTB): 1%
• Marina Helou (Chain): 1%
• Orlando Silva (PCdoB): 1%
• None / blank / null: 9%
• I don’t know: 3%

Antônio Carlos Silva (PCO) and Vera Lúcia (PSTU) had less than 1%.

Relative to previous Datafolha surveys

See the previous Datafolha survey, published on October 22.

Check out Datafolha’s previous survey, released October 8.

Russomanno’s candidacy again fell sharply among the youngest, this time from 20% to 9%. In the survey in early October, it led with 35% in the 16-24 age group, and has since lost 26% of voting intentions in this segment, now behind Boulos (29%) and Covas (19%).

In the portion with family income of 2 to 5 salaries, where it had 28% in the first week of October and 17% in the survey conducted between the 21st and 22nd of the same month, Russomanno dropped to 11%. It is also behind Covas, who has 30%, and tied with Boulos (16%) and France (14%). Among the wealthiest, with a family income of more than 10 salaries, only 5% would vote for Russomanno today (it was 9% in the previous poll) and in the more educated electorate this rate is 6% (it was 9% ).

The poll also asked who voters would not vote for at all. The percentages were as follows:

• Celso Russomanno: 47%
• Joice Hasselmann: 30%
• Bruno Covas: 25%
• Jilmar’s Tattoo: 23%
• Guilherme Boulos: 22%
• Levy Fidelix: 22%
• Orlando Silva: 17%
• Arthur do Val: 16%
• Márcio França: 14%
• Andrea Matarazzo: 13%
• Vera Lúcia: 12%
• Antônio Carlos: 10%
• Marina Helou: 10%
• Reject all / would not vote for none: 3%
• Would vote for any / reject none: 2%
• Don’t know: 4%

Respondents could indicate more than one answer, so the sum of the mentioned factors is more than 100%.

Datafolha also dealt with spontaneous voting intentions, when the voter says who they will vote for without the names of the candidates being presented. See the results:

• Bruno Covas (PSDB): 19%
• Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 12%
• Celso Russomanno (Republicans): 8%
• Márcio França (PSB): 7%
• Jilmar Tatto (PT): 3%
• Arthur do Val (Patriot): 3%
• Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 2%
• Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 1%
• PT candidate: 2%
• Others: 4%
• White / null / none: 10%
• Don’t know: 30%

Degree of knowledge of the interviewee about the candidate’s number

• Bruno Covas (PSDB): 47% know (correct mention) and 53% do not know (5% incorrect mention and 48% do not know the number).
• Celso Russomanno (Republicans): 21% know (correct mention) and 79% do not know (11% incorrect mention and 68% do not know the number).
• Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 64% know (correct mention) and 36% do not know (3% incorrect mention and 33% do not know the number).
• Márcio França (PSB): 46% know (correct mention) and 53% do not know (9% incorrect mention and 44% do not know the number).
• Jilmar Tatto (PT): 71% know (correct mention) and 29% do not know (1% incorrect mention and 28% do not know the number).

The survey also asked how decisive the vote was. 57% of voters are fully determined and 42% say it can still change. See the degree of decision in relation to each candidate:

• Bruno Covas: 63% are fully determined; 37% can still change the vote.
• Celso Russomanno: 50% is fully decided; 49% can still change the vote.
• Guilherme Boulos: 78% are fully determined; 22% can still change the vote.
• Márcio França: 45% are fully determined; 54% can still change the vote.
• Jilmar Tatto: 63% are fully determined; 36% can still change the vote.

Among those who stated that they can still change their vote, Datafolha also asked, if respondents do not vote for the first option, which other candidate is more likely to receive their vote.

• Bruno Covas: 20%
• Márcio França: 18%
• Celso Russomanno: 13%
• Guilherme Boulos: 6%
• Jilmar’s Tattoo: 4%

See the distribution of these votes:

Bruno Covas would vote for 27% of the voters who declared their vote in Russomano; 18% among Boulos voters; 32% among French voters; 27% among the voters in Tatto.

26% of the voters who declare their vote in Covas would vote for Márcio França; 24% among Russomanno voters; 30% among Boulos voters; 27% among the voters in Tatto.

24% of the voters who declare their vote in Covas would vote for Celso Russomanno; 2% among Boulos voters; 21% among French voters; 11% among voters in Tatto.

Guilherme Boulos would vote for 8% of the voters who declared their vote in Covas; 1% among Russomanno voters; 9% among French voters; 25% among voters in Tatto.

6% of the voters who vote in Covas would vote for Jilmar Tatto; 3% among Russomanno voters; 2% among Boulos voters; 6% among French voters.

Second shift simulations

Datafolha also questioned, if the second round of the mayoral election were today, who would voters vote for:

• Bruno Covas 57% x 27% Celso Russomanno (blank / null: 15%; don’t know: 1%)
• Bruno Covas 54% x 32% Guilherme Boulos (white / null: 12%; don’t know: 1%)
• Bruno Covas 48% x 32% Márcio França (blank / null: 12%; don’t know: 2%)
• Guilherme Boulos 41% x 39% Celso Russomanno (white / null: 19%; don’t know: 1%)

• The survey was commissioned by TV Globo and the newspaper “Folha de S. Paulo”.
• Margin of error: 3 percentage points more or less
• Who was heard: 1,260 voters in the city of São Paulo aged 16 years or over.
• When the survey was conducted: November 3-4, 2020.
• Identification number in the Electoral Tribunal: SP-06709/2020.
• The confidence level used is 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the results reflect the current electoral moment, considering the margin of error.

Electoral surveys: what is a sample, margin of error and level of confidence.

VIDEOS: Meet the candidates of the SP City Council