Datafolha Survey in São Paulo: Covas, 23%; Russomanno, 20%; Boulos, 14%; France, 10% | 2020 elections in São Paulo

• Bruno Covas (PSDB): 23%
• Celso Russomanno (Republicans): 20%
• Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 14%
• Márcio França (PSB): 10%
• Arthur do Val – Mamãe Fali (Patriot): 4%
• Jilmar Tatto (PT): 4%
• Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 3%
• Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 2%
• Levy Fidelix (PRTB): 1%
• Marina Helou (Chain): 1%
• Orlando Silva (PCdoB): 1%
• Vera Lúcia (PSTU): 1%
• None / blank / null: 13%
• Don’t know: 3%

Antonio Carlos Silva (PCO) and Filipe Sabará (Novo) had less than 1%.

In relation to the previous Datafolha survey, dated October 8:

• Covas went from 21% to 23%
• Russomanno went from 27% to 20%
• Boulos went from 12% to 14%
• France went from 8% to 10%
• Arthur do Val went from 3% to 4%
• Jilmar Tatto went from 1% to 4%
• Joice Hasselmann went from 1% to 3%
• Matarazzo stayed at 2%
• Levy Fidelix went from 2% to 1%
• Marina Helou kept 1%
• Orlando Silva stayed at 1%
• Vera kept 1%
• Antônio Carlos went from 1% to 0%
• Sabará went from 1% to 0%
• The undecided went from 4% to 3% and the white or null went from 12% to 13%

See Datafolha’s previous survey, released October 8.

According to Datafolha, Russomanno fell most strongly in the age group 16-24 (from 35% to 20%), a segment in which it led freely in the previous survey and now appears behind Boulos, who grew from 17% 27% among the youngest in the same period. The Republican candidate also suffered a more severe drop among voters with a monthly family income of 2 to 5 salaries (from 28% to 17%) and lost half of the vote among those who have the PT as their favorite party (from 36% at 18%). .

Bruno Covas continues to have his worst performance in the youngest electorate, where he fluctuated from 14% to 12%. In the next band, aged 25 to 34, however, the toucan advanced from 16% to 23%, its biggest advance in the last two weeks.

Boulos, despite the gain among the youngest, lost voting intentions in the next age group, 25 to 34 years (from 19% to 15%).

The positive oscillation of the candidacy of Márcio França was mainly driven by the advance in the age group of 16 to 24 years (from 4% to 9%) and in the electorate with income of 2 to 5 salaries (from 7% to 12 %). Among the richest, with incomes greater than 10 salaries, the preference for the ex-governor was reduced by half (from 13% to 6%).

Petista Jilmar Tatto managed to advance among his party’s supporters, who represent 16% of the electorate in the São Paulo capital and give him 20% of voting intentions at this time, against 7% in the previous poll. That is, Tatto today has about one in five votes from voters who have the PT as their preferred party, and the rest is distributed mainly between Boulos (23%), Covas (16%), Russomanno (18%) and France (8%).

The poll also asked who voters would not vote for. The percentages were as follows:

• Celso Russomanno: 38%
• Joice Hasselmann: 33%
• Levy Fidelix: 26%
• Bruno Covas: 25%
• Guilherme Boulos: 24%
• Jilmar’s Tattoo: 23%
• Filipe Sabará: 21%
• Vera Lúcia: 20%
• Arthur do Val: 20%
• Orlando Silva: 19%
• Márcio França: 16%
• Antonio Carlos Silva: 15%
• Marina Helou: 15%
• Andrea Matarazzo: 14%
• Reject all / would not vote for none: 5%
• Would vote for any / reject none: 2%
• Don’t know: 4%

Respondents could indicate more than one answer, so the sum of the mentioned factors is more than 100%.

Datafolha also addressed spontaneous voting intentions, when the voter says who they will vote for without the names of the candidates being presented. See the results:

• Bruno Covas (PSDB): 13%
• Celso Russomanno (Republicans): 11%
• Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 11%
• Márcio França (PSB): 5%
• Arthur do Val (Patriot): 3%
• Jilmar Tatto (PT): 2%
• Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 1%
• Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 1%
• PT candidate: 2%
• Others: 4%
• White / null / none: 12%
• I don’t know: 36%

Degree of knowledge of the interviewee about the candidate:

• Celso Russomanno (Republicans): 97% know (53% very well, 25% a little and 19% to listen) and 3% do not know
• Bruno Covas (PSDB): 97% know (50% very well, 30% a little and 17% to listen) and 3% do not know
• Márcio França (PSB): 79% know it (24% very well, 27% a little and 28% hear it) and 21% do not know
• Levy Fidelix (PRTB): 71% know (16% very well, 24% a little and 31% find out) and 29% do not know
• Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 57% know (23% very well, 14% a little and 20% to listen) and 43% do not know
• Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 56% know (11% very well, 18% a little and 27% listen to it) and 44% do not know
• Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 53% know (15% very well, 18% a little and 20% to listen) and 47% do not know
• Jilmar Tatto (PT): 52% know (14% very well, 18% a little and 21% find out) and 48% do not know
• Orlando Silva (PC do B): 38% know (8% very well, 14% a little and 16% to listen) and 62% do not know
• Arthur do Val (Patriota): 28% know (9% very well, 8% a little and 12% find out) and 72% do not know
• Filipe Sabará (New): 23% know (2% very well, 6% a little and 16% find out) and 77% do not know
• Marina Helou (Rede): 29% know (2% very well, 6% a little and 12% find out) and 80% do not know
• Vera Lúcia (PSTU): 15% know (1% very well, 4% a little and 9% to listen) and 85% do not know
• Antônio Carlos Silva (PCO): 13% know (1% very well, 4% a little and 8% to listen) and 87% do not know

Second shift simulations

Datafolha also questioned if the second round of the mayoral election was today and the dispute was only between Bruno Covas and Celso Russomanno for whom voters would vote:

• Bruno Covas 48% x 36% Celso Russomanno (blank / null: 14%; don’t know: 1%)

• The survey was commissioned by TV Globo and the newspaper “Folha de S. Paulo”.
• Margin of error: 3 percentage points more or less
• Who was heard: 1,204 voters in the city of São Paulo aged 16 or over.
• When the survey was conducted: October 20-21, 2020.
• Identification number in the Electoral Tribunal: SP-02125/2020.
• The confidence level used is 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the results reflect the current electoral moment, considering the margin of error.

Electoral polls: what is a sample, margin of error and level of confidence.

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