Datafolha Survey in Rio de Janeiro: Paes, 31%; Crivella, 15%; Martha, 13%; Benedita, 8% | 2020 elections in Rio de Janeiro

In relation to the previous Datafolha survey, published on October 22:

• Eduardo Paes went from 28% to 31%
• Crivella went from 13% to 15%
• Martha Rocha remained at 13%
• Benedita da Silva went from 10% to 8%
• Luiz Lima went from 4% to 5%
• Renata souza went from 5% to 3%
• Mello Flag stayed at 3%
• Paulo messina went from 0% to 1%
• Clarissa garotinho stayed at 1%
• Cyro garcia stayed at 1%
• Fred light stayed at 1%
• Gloria Heloiza went from 1% to 0%
• Suêd Haidar stayed at 0%
• Henrique simonard was not mentioned in the last two polls
• the undecided went from 3% to 2%, and blank or null went from 17% to 16%

According to the survey, Paes gets the biggest advantages among the elderly (40%, compared to 14% for Crivella and 12% for Martha); among the richest (36%, against 16% for Martha and 10% for Crivella); among Catholics (41%, compared to 12% for Martha and 10% for Crivella); retired (47%, against 14% for Crivella and 10% for Martha); and enter those who disapprove of the government of Jair Bolsonaro (no party) (34%, compared to 3% for Crivella and 14% for Martha).

Second shift simulations

Datafolha also simulated three second-round scenarios. See the numbers:

• Eduardo Paes 53% x 25% Crivella (blank / null: 21%; don’t know: 1%)
• Eduardo Paes 44% x 38% Martha Rocha (blank / null: 16%; don’t know: 2%)
• Eduardo Paes 48% x 27% Benedita da Silva (blank / null: 24%; don’t know: 1%)

The survey also asked whom voters would not vote for at all. The percentages were as follows:

• Crivella: 57%
• Eduardo Paes: 33%
• Benedita da Silva: 30%
• Clarissa garotinho: 29%
• Cyro garcia: 13%
• Delegate Martha Rocha: eleven%
• Luiz Lima: eleven%
• Paulo messina: 8%
• Fred light: 7%
• Renata souza: 6%
• Gloria Heloiza: 6%
• Suêd Haidar: 6%
• Mello Flag: 6%
• Henrique simonard: 5%
• Reject all / would not vote for none: 4%
• Don’t know / didn’t answer: 2%
• You could vote for all: 1%

Datafolha also addressed spontaneous voting intention, when the voter says who he will vote for without the names of the candidates being presented. See the results:

• Eduardo Paes: 22%
• Crivella: eleven%
• Martha Rocha: 8%
• Benedita da Silva: 5%
• Luiz Lima: 3%
• Renata souza: 2%
• Mello Flag: 1%
• Fred light: 1%
• Others: 3%
• White / null / none: 16%
• Don’t know / didn’t answer: 29%
• Do not vote / do not vote / justify: 0%

The survey was commissioned by TV Globo and by the newspaper “Folha de S.Paulo”.

• Margin of error: 3 percentage points more or less
• Who was heard: 1,064 voters in the city of Rio de Janeiro
• When the survey was conducted: November 3-4
• Identification number in the Electoral Tribunal: RJ-02176/2020
• The confidence level used is 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the results reflect the current electoral moment, considering the margin of error.