Datafolha Survey in Recife: João Campos, 31%; Marília Arraes, 21%; Mendonça Filho, 16%; Patrícia Patrícia, 14% | 2020 elections in Pernambuco

Thiago Santos (UP), Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo (PRTB) and Claudia Ribeiro (PSTU) were mentioned, but they did not reach 1% of the voting intentions. Victor Assis (PCO) was rejected by the Electoral Tribunal.

In relation to the previous Datafolha survey, published on October 22:

• João Campos (PSB): remained at 31%
• Marília Arraes (PT): went from 18% to 21%
• Mendonça Filho (DEM): went from 15% to 16%
• Delegate Patricia (Podemos): went from 16% to 14%
• Colonel Feitosa (PSC): remained at 2%
• Carlos (PSL): stayed at 1%
• Charbel (new): stayed at 1%
• Claudia Ribeiro (PSTU): remained at less than 1%
• Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo (PRTB): remained at less than 1%
• Thiago Santos (UP): went from 1% to less than 1%
• Víctor Assis (PCO): was not mentioned in the last survey and, in this one, his application was rejected
• Blank / null / none: remained at 12%
• I don’t know: it went from 4% to 3%

See the previous Datafolha survey, published on October 22.

According to Datafolha, the rise of the candidate Marília Arraes was favored mainly by growth among women (from 15% to 22%), in the most advanced age groups (from 16% to 21% among those aged 45 to 59 years old, and from 18% to 22% in the portion 60 and over), in the portion with average schooling (15% to 20%) and among the poorest voters, with a monthly family income of up to two salaries (from 14% to 20%). In the electorate with family income above five salaries, on the other hand, there was a decrease (from 33% to 23%) in the preference for PT.

The negative fluctuation in the intention to vote by Delegada Patrícia was uneven among the segments of the electorate. In the portion of 45 to 59 years, for example, it fell from 17% to 11%, and in the previous range, from 35 to 44 years, it went from 17% to 19%. In the electorate with basic education, there was a decrease from 10% to 6%, and among those who studied up to high school, from 19% to 13%. In the more educated segment, on the other hand, the preference for his candidacy went from 16% to 23%. Among the poorest it lost seven points (from 17% to 10%), and among the richest, with a family income above five salaries, it gained nine points (from 14% to 23%).

The poll also asked who voters would not vote for at all. The percentages were as follows:

• Patrícia Patrícia (Podemos): 35%
• João Campos (PSB): 34%
• Mendonça Filho (DEM): 32%
• Colonel Feitosa (PSC): 30%
• Marília Arraes (PT): 26%
• Carlos (PSL): 17%
• Thiago Santos (UP): 16%
• Charbel (Novo): 16%
• Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo (PRTB): 16%
• Claudia Ribeiro (PSTU): 13%
• Victor Assis (PCO): had his candidacy rejected by the Electoral Justice
• Wouldn’t vote for any: 4%
• You could vote for all: 1%
• Don’t know / didn’t answer: 4%

According to Datafolha, the rejection of deputy Patrícia more than doubled in the last 10 days. In the poll, conducted between October 20 and 21, 15% rejected the possibility of voting for the delegate, the lowest rate among all candidates. In the first week of October, the rejection of her was even lower (13%), that is to say, within a month, the rate of those who would not vote at all for Delegada Patrícia rose 169%.

The increase in aversion to Congresswoman Patrícia occurred in all relevant sociodemographic segments of the survey, with less intensity among the youngest (from 19% to 25%) and with greater intensity in the group aged 35-44 years (from 14% to 37%). ), from 45 to 59 years old (from 17% to 40%) and in the stratum with the highest family income, above five salaries (from 13% to 39%).

In relation to the previous Datafolha poll, published on October 22, the rejection of candidates evolved as follows:

• Patrícia Patrícia: went from 15% to 35%
• João Campos: he kept 34%
• Mendonça Filho: went from 28% to 32%
• Colonel Feitosa: went from 27% to 30%
• Marília Arraes: went from 22% to 26%
• Carlos: went from 20% to 17%
• Thiago Santos: went from 17% to 16%
• Charbel: went from 21% to 16%
• Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo: went from 17% to 16%
• Cláudia Ribeiro: went from 16% to 13%
• Victor Assis: He had 21% and, in this survey, his application was rejected
• Reject all / would not vote for none: stayed at 4%
• I would vote for anyone / reject none: went from 2% to 1%
• I don’t know: it went from 5% to 4%

Second shift simulations

Datafolha also questioned whether, if the second round of the mayoral election were today, which candidates would voters vote for, presenting three scenarios. The numbers are as follows:

• João Campos 43% x 35% Marília Arraes. Blank / null / none: 20%; I don’t know: 2%
• João Campos 49% x 33% Mendonça Filho. Blank / null / none: 17%; I don’t know: 2%
• João Campos 50% x 31% Patrícia Patrícia. Blank / null / none: 17%; I don’t know: 1%

Knowledge of the candidate number

The poll also asked voters if they could correctly cite the number of the mayoral candidate they had chosen. The numbers are as follows:

• Correct mentions: 77%
• Incorrect mentions: 2%
• I don’t know the number: 21%

• Correct mentions: 63%
• Incorrect mentions: 4%
• I don’t know the number: 33%

• Correct mentions: 44%
• Incorrect mentions: 9%
• I don’t know the number: 46%

• Correct mentions: 42%
• Incorrect mentions: 10%
• I don’t know the number: 49%

• The survey was commissioned by TV Globo and by the newspaper “Folha de S.Paulo”.
• Margin of error: 3 percentage points more or less
• Who Was Heard: 924 Recife Voters
• When the survey was conducted: November 3-4
• TRE-PE identification number: PE-06862/2020
• The confidence level used is 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the results reflect the current electoral moment, considering the margin of error.

Electoral polls: what is a sample, margin of error and level of confidence

VIDEOS: See the responses of candidates to the city of Recife on topics relevant to the city