Datafolha Survey in Recife: João Campos, 29%; Marília Arraes, 22%; Mendonça Filho, 18%; Patrícia Patrícia, 15% | 2020 elections in Pernambuco

Charbel (Nueva), Claudia Ribeiro (PSTU), Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo (PRTB) and Thiago Santos (UP) were mentioned, but did not reach 1% of the voting intentions. Victor Assis (PCO) was rejected by the Electoral Tribunal.

In relation to the previous Datafolha survey, published on November 5:

• João Campos (PSB): had 31% and dropped to 29%
• Marília Arraes (PT): went from 21% to 22%
• Mendonça Filho (DEM): went from 16% to 18%
• Delegate Patricia (Podemos): from 14% to 15%
• Carlos (PSL): went from 1% to 2%
• Colonel Feitosa (PSC): went from 2% to 1%
• Charbel (new): had 1% and fell below 1%
• Claudia Ribeiro (PSTU): remained at less than 1%
• Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo (PRTB): remained below 1%
• Thiago Santos (UP): remained below 1%
• Victor Assis (PCO): Was the application rejected?
• Blank / Null / None – went from 12% to 9%
• I don’t know: it went from 3% to 4%

See the previous Datafolha survey, published on November 5.

According to Datafolha, the negative oscillation of João Campos was driven by the expressive fall among the youngest (from 40% to 29%), the least educated (from 49% to 41%) and the poorest (from 39% to 33% )), and was partially offset by the positive variation in the age group 25 to 34 (from 25% to 30%), among the most educated (from 12% to 15%) and in the income group more high (13% to 20%)%).

The candidate Marília Arraes grew from 20% to 34% among young people between 16 and 24 years old, and from 26% to 33% in the segment with higher education, and suffered minor negative fluctuations in the range of 45 to 59 years (from 21 % to 18%), among those with medium education (from 20% to 18%) and in the group with a monthly family income of two to five salaries (from 24% to 22%).

Mendonça Filho won four points among the poorest (from 12% to 16%), but remained stagnant and had a negative fluctuation in the other two income segments, which prevented a significant increase in their total votes.

The candidate Patrícia Patrícia, in turn, advanced among voters with medium education (from 13% to 18%), but lost points among those who attended higher education (from 23% to 18%).

The poll also asked who voters would not vote for at all. The percentages were as follows:

• Patrícia Patrícia (Podemos): 40%
• João Campos (PSB): 34%
• Mendonça Filho (DEM): 31%
• Colonel Feitosa (PSC): 30%
• Marília Arraes (PT): 27%
• Carlos (PSL): 16%
• Charbel (Novo): 16%
• Thiago Santos (UP): 14%
• Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo (PRTB): 14%
• Claudia Ribeiro (PSTU): 13%
• Victor Assis (PCO): had his candidacy rejected by the Electoral Justice
• Wouldn’t vote for any: 4%
• Would vote for any / reject none: 2%
• Don’t know / didn’t answer: 4%

According to Datafolha, the rejection of the candidate Patrícia Patrícia increased again during the week, reaching 40% of the voters. In the survey between November 3 and 4, the rate was 35% and in the second half of October it was 15%.

The rejection of candidate Vamos is lower among men (36%) than among women (43%), and it is below the average in the portion of the Recife electorate that supports the government of Jair Bolsonaro (25%). Among those who disapprove of the president’s management, the index rises to 50%.

In relation to the previous Datafolha survey, published on November 5, the rejection of candidates evolved as follows:

• Patrícia Patrícia: went from 35% to 40%
• João Campos: he kept 34%
• Mendonça Filho: went from 32% to 31%
• Colonel Feitosa: stayed at 30%
• Marília Arraes: went from 26% to 27%
• Carlos: went from 17% to 16%
• Charbel: remained at 16%
• Thiago Santos: went from 16% to 14%
• Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo: went from 16% to 14%
• Cláudia Ribeiro: kept 13%
• Victor Assis: had the candidacy rejected by the Electoral Justice
• Reject all / would not vote for none: he kept 4%
• I would vote for anyone / reject none: went from 1% to 2%
• I don’t know: he kept 4%

When counting valid votes, which exclude white, invalid and undecided voters, João Campos has 33%; Marília Arraes, 25%; Mendonça Filho, 20% and Patrícia Patrícia, 17%. They are followed by Carlos (2%), Coronel Feitosa (1%) and Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo (1%), the others below 1% of valid votes. It is based on valid votes that the Electoral Tribunal counts and announces the results of the elections.

Second shift simulations

Datafolha also questioned whether, if the second round of the mayoral elections were today, which candidates would voters vote for, presenting three scenarios. The numbers are as follows:

• João Campos 41% x 35% Marília Arraes. White / null / none, 22%; I don’t know, 2%
• João Campos 46% x 38% Mendonça Filho. White / null / none, 14%; I don’t know, 2%
• João Campos 54% x 31% Patrícia Patrícia. White / null / none, 15%; I don’t know, 1%

Knowledge of the candidate number

The poll also asked voters if they could correctly cite the number of the mayoral candidate they had chosen. The majority (61%) mention the correct number. The numbers are as follows:

• Correct mentions: 77%
• Incorrect mentions: 1%
• I don’t know the number: 21%

• Correct mentions: 66%
• Incorrect mentions: 3%
• I don’t know the number: 31%

• Correct mentions: 49%
• Incorrect mentions: 8%
• I don’t know the number: 43%

• Correct mentions: 46%
• Incorrect mentions: 8%
• I don’t know the number: 46%

• The survey was commissioned by TV Globo and by the newspaper “Folha de S.Paulo”.
• Margin of error: 3 percentage points more or less
• Who was heard: 1,036 voters in the city of Recife
• When the survey was conducted: November 9 10
• TRE-PE identification number: PE-03779/2020
• The confidence level used is 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the results reflect the current electoral moment, considering the margin of error.

Electoral polls: what is a sample, margin of error and level of confidence

VIDEOS: see the responses of Recife mayoral candidates on issues relevant to the city