Datafolha survey for the second shift in São Paulo: Bruno Covas, 47%; Guilherme Boulos, 40% | 2020 elections in São Paulo

• Bruno Covas (PSDB): 47%
• Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 40%
• White / null: 9%
• Don’t know / didn’t answer: 4%

In relation to the previous survey, of November 24:

• Bruno Covas went from 48% to 47%
• Guilherme Boulos kept 40%
• White and null remained at 9%
• Does not know or does not respond were from 3% to 4%

See the Datafolha survey released on November 24

See the Datafolha survey released on November 19

For the calculation of valid votes, blank votes, invalid votes and voters who declare themselves undecided are excluded from the sample. The procedure is the same that the Electoral Tribunal uses to disclose the official result of the election. To win in the second round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.

• Bruno Covas: 54%
• Guilherme Boulos: 46%

In relation to the previous survey, of November 24:

• Bruno Covas went from 55% to 54%
• Guilherme Boulos went from 45% to 46%

Boulos has a wide advantage among young people aged 16 to 24 (61% to 27%), and Covas reverses this result at the other extreme, among those aged 60 and over (61% to 28%). Younger people, however, weigh less (12%) in the electorate than older voters (23%). Among the poorest, with a family income of up to two salaries, the PSDB candidate has 46% of the voting intentions, compared to 39% of the opponent.

The toucan is also numerically ahead among those with a family income of 2 to 5 salaries (48% to 38%), and in the following, with an income of 5 to 10 salaries, the numerical advantage is that of the PSOL candidate ( 48% to 42%)%). Among the richest, with incomes above 10 salaries, Covas has 53% and Boulos is elected by 42%.

The poll also asked the degree of decision to vote: 84% of voters say it is completely decided and 15% say that the vote can still change. See the percentage per candidate:

• Bruno Covas: 83% of the voters are fully determined; 17% say the vote can still change
• Guilherme Boulos: 87% of the voters are fully determined; 13% say the vote can still change

Knowledge of the candidate number

The number of the chosen candidate is known to 75% of São Paulo residents. Of the total sample, 19% said they did not know the candidate’s number, 3% did not know how to cancel and 3% reported the wrong number. See the percentage per candidate:

• Bruno Covas (PSDB): 76% know (correct mention) and 24% do not know (4% incorrect mention and 20% do not know the number).
• Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 77% know (correct mention) and 23% do not know (2% incorrect mention and 21% do not know the number).

Datafolha also asked voters if they have a second voting option. Voters were asked what they would do if they did not vote for the named candidate: if they would vote for the opponent, blank or null. In the entire sample, 19% would vote for Guilherme Boulos as a second option; 17% would vote for Bruno Covas as a second option; 55% would vote blank or null; 8% do not know or have not responded.

View the percentages by preferred candidate.

• Among the voters who say they will vote for Bruno Covas: 30% would vote for Guilherme Boulos as a second option; 62% would vote blank or null; 9% do not know or have not responded.
• Among voters who say they will vote for Guilherme Boulos: 37% would vote for Bruno Covas as a second option; 59% would vote blank or null; 4% do not know or have not responded.

Importance when choosing a candidate

The poll also questioned what voters consider most important when choosing a mayoral candidate. See the answers:

• Your proposals: 83%
• Party to which it belongs: 8%
• Both / both: 4%
• Other responses: 4%
• I don’t know: 1%

• Margin of error: 3 percentage points more or less;
• Who was heard: 1,512 voters in the city of São Paulo;
• When the survey was conducted: November 24-25, 2020;
• Identification number in the Electoral Tribunal: SP-09865/2020
• The survey was commissioned by TV Globo and the newspaper “Folha de S. Paulo”;
• The confidence level used is 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the results reflect the current electoral moment, considering the margin of error.

Electoral surveys: what is a sample, margin of error and level of confidence.

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