Datafolha in Recife: Marília Arraes, 43%; João Campos, 40% | 2020 elections in Pernambuco

The results were the following:

• Marília Arraes (PT): 43%
• João Campos (PSB): 40%
• Blank / null: 13%
• Don’t know / didn’t answer: 4%

In relation to the previous Datafolha survey, Released November 19:

• Marília Arraes (PT): had 41% and went up to 43%
• João Campos (PSB): had 34% and went up to 40%
• Blank / null: decreased from 21% to 13%
• Don’t know / didn’t answer: went from 3% to 4%

In valid votes, the results were the following:

• Marília Arraes (PT): 52%
• João Campos (PSB): 48%

In relation to the previous Datafolha survey, published on November 19:

• Marília Arraes (PT): went from 55% to 52%
• João Campos (PSB): went from 45% to 48%

For the calculation of valid votes, blank votes, invalid votes and voters who declare themselves undecided are excluded from the sample. The procedure is the same that the Electoral Tribunal uses to disclose the official result of the election. To win in the second round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.

According to Datafolha, Marília Arraes has an advantage among men (46% to 36%) and among women she is at the same level as her opponent, but numerically behind (41% to 43%). Among the youngest, from 16 to 24 years old, they open a distance (47% to 33%). In the next age group, 25-34, the PT has 43%, compared to 41% for the PSB candidate.

In the electorate of 35-44 years, Campos is numerically ahead (45% to 37%), and among those of 45 to 59 the positions are reversed, with the PT deputy opening an advantage (48% to 34%). In the group of older voters, aged 60 and over, the PSB candidate has 44% and Marília, 43%.

In the portion with basic education, Campos has 48%, compared to 42% for the opponent. Among voters with average education, Marília Arraes obtained 42%, compared to 39% for the PSB deputy, and among the most educated, the PT candidate leads (47% to 32%). In the segment with family income of up to two salaries, which includes 58% of voters, Campos has 44% of voting intentions, compared to 40% for Marília. In the income range of two to five salaries, the PT advances (52% to 31%), and among the richest it maintains the leadership with a smaller margin (47% to 34%).

The comparison with the previous survey shows a more intense growth in the candidacy of João Campos among voters aged 25 to 34 years (from 30% to 41%), in the age group 35 to 44 years (from 30% to 45 %) and among evangelicals (from 38% to 51%). Congresswoman Marília Arraes, on the other hand, advanced more in the electorate of 45 to 59 years (from 38% to 48%) and among voters with incomes of two to five salaries (from 40% to 52%).

The rate of fully determined voters in their vote for mayor on Sunday (29) is 87%, at the same level for those who declare their vote for the PT candidate (88%) and the PSB deputy (87%). In the electorate that can still vote blank or null, 88% are convinced of this option and 12% can still change their mind.

Among those who can still change their vote until election day, half (49%) would migrate to the white or null vote, and the rest would be divided between Campos (28%) and Marília (15%), with 7% undecided.

When choosing a candidate for mayor, 14% of Recife voters rank the party to which they belong as the most important aspect and 77% value the proposals presented by the candidate more than their initials.

There is 4% that see parties and proposals equally relevant, when deciding to vote, 2% do not consider any of these elements important, and the rest have different opinions (2%) or have not responded (2%).

The party is less valued among the youngest (6%) and is the most important decision element for equal parts of voters of Marília Arraes (14%) and João Campos (15%). The federal deputy takes advantage of this aspect because 28% of voters in the capital point to the PT as their preferred acronym, compared to 4% who have their favorite party in the PSB.

• Margin of error: 3 percentage points more or less
• Respondents: 1,036 Recife voters
• When the survey was conducted: November 24-25
• Registration No TRE: PE-06935/2020
• Confidence level: 95%
• Research contractors: TV Globo and newspaper “Folha de S.Paulo”
• The confidence level of the survey is 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the results reflect reality, considering the margin of error, which is 3 points, more or less.

VIDEOS: João Campos and Marília Arraes present proposals for Recife