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RIO – In a campaign with a rare plebiscite call in Rio, in which two administrations met face to face, the dispute between the current and the former mayor in the second round of Rio comes to a vote this Sunday, with a scenario of great advantage for Eduardo Paes. (DEM), who seeks to resume the position that Marcelo Crivella (Republicans) held since 2017. The Ibope and Datafolha polls published on Saturday point to a difference of 36 points between candidates in the comparison of valid votes, which does not consider blank, null and abstentions.
According to Datafolha, Crivella ranged positively from the institute’s latest poll, released Thursday, and now has 32% of valid votes, still far, however, from Paes’ 68%. The margin of error for this survey is two points.
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Ibope pointed to the same numbers in the performance of valid votes. According to Ibope, Crivella, who had grown to 35% in a poll published on Wednesday, fluctuated on the eve of the second round to 32%, while Paes went from 65% to 68%. The margin of error for this survey is three points.
In general voting intentions, the percentages of white people, null and void voters who did not know or did not want to answer, add up to 20% in both surveys.
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According to Datafolha, 90% of voters say they are fully determined on their choice, while only 10% admit to changing it until it is time to vote.
High rejection from Crivella
In Rio’s political history after redemocratization, there were only two occasions when a former mayor ran against the incumbent at the time. Both involved Cesar Maia and Luiz Paulo Conde, in the early 2000s. Maia, who named Conde, a former Urban Planning secretary, his successor in 1996, ran for mayor four years later against the former ally, with whom he had broken, and the won. In 2004, it was Conde’s turn to object, but he finished in third place, while Maia was re-elected in the first round.
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However, neither of the two disputes was crossed so decisively by the comparison between two administrations, as happened in the elections this year. In 2000, Conde was in a government approved by 41% of Cariocas, according to Datafolha, not far from the 52% approval with which Maia had ended the previous term. Conde’s defeat in the round of 16 was attributed less to the comparison with Maia and more to slips in the debates, such as in a blunder in which he said “lie less” than his opponent, in addition to the association with Governor Anthony Garotinho, that supported him in the final stretch. and faced a public safety crisis.
In 2004, attacks on the Maia administration were divided among nearly all the candidates, Conde among them. The then mayor grew up in the final stretch, winning in the first round with just over 50% of the votes.
Crivella:with high rejection, the mayor campaigned that reinforced the stigmas in search of a miracle
In the current election, marked by the shortest calendar amid the Covid-19 pandemic; Paes’ advantage at the polls since the beginning of the electoral race; And because of Crivella’s high rejection – always hovering around 60%, almost double that of most opponents – the debates and TV and radio spots have for the most part orbited a pros and cons comparison between the old and the present. administration. The candidates who bet on attacking Paes and Crivella at the same time, such as Luiz Lima (PSL), Renata Souza (PSOL) and Paulo Messina (MDB), had timid votes.
Accusations of corruption by Paes
To defend himself against criticism of his mandate, Crivella took aim at his predecessor by artillery, accusing Paes of leaving “millionaire debts”, unfinished works, a dubious Olympic legacy and of becoming accused of corruption after being mayor. In the second round, Crivella incorporated into the repertoire false accusations that the opponent would try to implement a “gay kit”, which, in fact, does not exist, as reiterated by the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE) in the 2018 presidential campaign, when the then Candidate Jair Bolsonaro, Crivella’s electoral body this year, filed similar complaints.
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Paes, for his part, insisted throughout almost the entire campaign in his speech that his successor would be “incompetent” and that he attacked the previous government only to divert attention from the problems in the public accounts that, according to the former mayor, would have been generated by On the eve of the 2016 elections, Paes, which was elected in 2012 with 64% of valid votes in the first round, had only 25% of voters who rated the government as excellent or good, according to a survey by Ibope, but the number of voters The carioca who disapproved of his management was only a third, with this in mind he modulated the campaign platform, arguing that, if he returned to the presidency, he could repeat a government that “was not perfect, but it worked better ”.
Attempts to nationalize the campaign, despite competing with the comparison of administrations, had little electoral impact. Martha Rocha (PDT) and Benedita da Silva (PT), candidates associated with the center-left, stayed in the first round in a technical tie with Crivella, which led the mayor, in the final stretch, to seek a convergence of the right-wing electorate . The mention of figures such as Ciro Gomes (PDT) and former president Lula (PT) was insufficient to promote Martha and Benedita, in addition to coinciding with the increase in the rejection of both. Crivella, who already had a disapproved management before joining Bolsonaro, continued to bet on the image of the president to consolidate himself in conservative niches. Against Paes, the only segment in which Crivella took advantage in the second round was among evangelicals: yesterday he had 66% of the valid votes, according to Datafolha. Despite Crivella’s insistence, bolsonarization was far from being the asset his allies aspired to in the pre-campaign.
