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After playing 30 rounds in Serie B, Cruzeiro already knows what he needs to continue dreaming of access to the elite of Brasileirão: a practically perfect performance. Raposa, after the 1-1 draw with Avaí, yesterday (18), needs to win practically all the games that remain to guarantee his return to the elite of national football.
With eight games left to play, Cruzeiro can score a maximum of 64 points. With this score, the department of mathematics of the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) indicates that there is a 99.9% chance that a team will rise. The numbers also indicated by the statistics show that with 62 points the possibility of access is 98.1%.
If Fox wins seven games and draws one, he would also have a chance, as he would reach 62 points. But you will most likely depend on combinations of results to gain access. The truth is that a defeat has everything to end the greatest goal of the celestials in 2020.
Currently, Cruzeiro has only a 4.2% probability of returning to Serie A. The chance was practically halved in relation to the projections at the end of round 29, figures also from UFMG.
Chapecoense, in first place with 58 points, and América-MG, vice leader with 56, are practically guaranteed in Series A. Both have 99.9% and 99.7%, respectively, of accessibility. There would be two vacancies in the G-4, disputed by nine clubs: Cuiabá, Juventude, Sampaio Corrêa, CSA, Guarani, Avaí, Cruzeiro, Ponte Preta and Confiança.
Of them, Juventude (50.2%), Cuiabá (39.6%) and Sampaio Corrêa (32.3%) go to the front in search of the desired access. Shortly after, CSA (27.3%), Guaraní (23.1%) and Avaí (17.1) appeared.
Cruzeiro opens the block of teams with less than 10% chance of reaching “paradise”. Just ahead of Ponte Preta (3.4%) and Confiança (1.9% 0. Figures that will change with the end of matchday 30, which still has games to play.
