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RIO – After a slow drop in the number of cases and deaths from coronavirus, observed in the last two months, the country was once again tormented by the Covid-19 pandemic. States in all regions of the country, such as Rio, São Paulo, Mato Grosso, Acre and Paraná, observe the moving averages of occurrences and deaths until they have tripled in recent days.
Public health experts warn that municipalities in the most critical conditions should reinforce measures of social isolation, an initiative that, they recognize, may encounter resistance from the population, after months of quarantine and on the brink of the Christmas season.
For the microbiologist from the University of São Paulo (USP) Laura de Freitas, some areas of the country should already be issuing decrees with stricter isolation measures, such as the closure of trade and other activities.
– It’s in the moment. We are experiencing the escalation of cases, the ideal is to close now so as not to worsen and overload the hospitals – says Freitas.
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According to the expert, the measures to reduce the figures are the known ones: social isolation, mask and alcohol gel.
– The use of the mask is even more advisable now than at the beginning of the pandemic because science has found that the mask reduces the severity of the disease. Whoever becomes infected with the equipment receives a lower viral load and tends to have a milder disease, he says, for those who are beginning to form a second wave of the disease. In fact, the first is not even finished. Unlike in Europe, here the number of cases has only decreased and has already risen again.
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The coordinator of the Diagnostic Front of the Unicamp Working Group against Covid-19, Alessandro Farias estimates that the recent increase in cases of the pandemic is a “week of tidal waves”.
– I do not know if these rates will continue to grow, because the current scenario in Brazil cannot be compared with that of Europe, where the countries almost reduce the number of cases to zero until a second wave arrives. We never get close to that reality – he says. – The population began to relax and returned to the streets, although there was no vaccine. It is difficult to close and avoid returning to the peak of the pandemic, because we need to think of solutions so that merchants do not close their doors.
Paulo Petry, a doctor in Epidemiology from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), considers that the population “got tired of the pandemic” and that the arrival of summer caused crowds. One consequence is an increase in the transmission rate.
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In its most recent survey, published yesterday, Imperial College London found that the average transmission rate (Rt) of Covid-19 in Brazil was 1.1 last week, that is, every hundred infected people infect another 110 The contagion rate is one of the main references to monitor the epidemic evolution of Sars-CoV-2. This time, it grew by 0.33 and returned to almost the same level as two weeks ago.
– It is an inexorable cycle: incidence, hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths – Petry laments. – We have never really quarantined, we are restricted to the detachment. We need to think about more severe measures and ask for the collaboration of the population. Unfortunately, there will be an economic impact and an emotional cost heading into the holiday season.
This Tuesday, 32,262 new cases and 676 new deaths were registered in the last 24 hours, totaling 5.9 million infected and 166,743 lives lost since the start of the pandemic, according to a press release from the media consortium. The moving average of deaths was 557, the highest in the last 35 days, with an upward trend in 14 states. This is a 45% growth compared to 15 days ago.
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The moving average of cases, in turn, was 29,674, 71% more than two weeks ago. This index shows an upward trend in 17 states
For the researcher of Analytical Methods in Public Health of Fiocruz Marcelo Gomes, the four days without revealing the number of deaths in some states hampered the different forecasts that were made on the data.
– This blackout (according to the system of the Ministry of Health) was very serious and detrimental for all types of analysis, because, taking into account the data released, it dampened the figures, which were later released. This should cause problems, especially for moving average analysis.
